TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 90L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 19, 2016…7:40 P.M. EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: INVEST 90L (70%)

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 90L continues to remain nearly stationary in the SW Caribbean Sea.  As of the 18Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 90L:

1:00 PM EST Sat Nov 19
Location: 10.9°N 81.2°W
Moving: STATIONARY
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

The NHC has kept a HIGH (70%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation for 90L over the next 5 days, down from 80% two days ago.
two_atl_5d0

Satellite loop imagery indicates the system has become better organized today.

NOAA / RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
jsl0-lalo-90l

tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

Based on analysis of the CIMSS wind shear and upper level wind products, INVEST 90L is experiencing some SW wind shear of about 15-20 kts at the moment, and the upper pattern is marginal at the moment, albeit in the past 6-7 hours, the upper level pattern appears to be trying to established an outflow.

Analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds are forecast to become favorable for further development, being indicated by the forecast of a well established upper level anticyclone in about 72-96 hours.  Based on this, along with analysis of the global models, further sow development appears likely.  The GFS, CMC GGEM, and ECMWF are in good agreement of development, with the GFS and CMC being the faster, weaker solutions of maintaining a Tropical Depression, possible minimal Tropical Storm, while the ECMWF is indicating a 974 mb hurricane, which would equate to around 80-85 kts.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
gfs_dl_shear_carib_16
gfs_dl_shear_carib_21
GFS SOLUTION
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_22

GGEM SOLUTION
cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_17

ECMWF SOLUTION
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_27

Analysis of the global models now indicates a forecast path into Nicaragua in about 5-6 days.  ALL 3 of the mentioned models are in agreement, which also agrees with the TVCC/TVCN consensus models.  This will most likely change slightly, should the system become better organized and become a depression.

ATCF 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE90l-18z-dynamic

Even though the models are in good agreement on track, the future path and intensity should still be considered preliminary.

I won’t have an update tomorrow, as I will be involved in a family function after church.  My next update will be Tue., unless something drastic with the system occurs tomorrow, then I may have a late update tomorrow.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 90L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 19, 2016…7:40 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I hope your family event went well. It seems odd to be seeing reports of tropical events when we had to put up the potted plants due to frost this weekend. Prayers to all who may be affect by the latest system.

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