TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: INVEST 90L (70%)
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 90L continues to remain nearly stationary in the SW Caribbean Sea. As of the 18Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 90L:
1:00 PM EST Sat Nov 19
Location: 10.9°N 81.2°W
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Satellite loop imagery indicates the system has become better organized today.
Based on analysis of the CIMSS wind shear and upper level wind products, INVEST 90L is experiencing some SW wind shear of about 15-20 kts at the moment, and the upper pattern is marginal at the moment, albeit in the past 6-7 hours, the upper level pattern appears to be trying to established an outflow.
Analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds are forecast to become favorable for further development, being indicated by the forecast of a well established upper level anticyclone in about 72-96 hours. Based on this, along with analysis of the global models, further sow development appears likely. The GFS, CMC GGEM, and ECMWF are in good agreement of development, with the GFS and CMC being the faster, weaker solutions of maintaining a Tropical Depression, possible minimal Tropical Storm, while the ECMWF is indicating a 974 mb hurricane, which would equate to around 80-85 kts.
Analysis of the global models now indicates a forecast path into Nicaragua in about 5-6 days. ALL 3 of the mentioned models are in agreement, which also agrees with the TVCC/TVCN consensus models. This will most likely change slightly, should the system become better organized and become a depression.
Even though the models are in good agreement on track, the future path and intensity should still be considered preliminary.
I won’t have an update tomorrow, as I will be involved in a family function after church. My next update will be Tue., unless something drastic with the system occurs tomorrow, then I may have a late update tomorrow.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS