TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 90L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 16, 2016…2:55 P.M. EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: INVEST 90L (80%)

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 90L continues to move slowly in the SW Caribbean Sea.  As of the 18Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 90L:

1:00 PM EST Tue Nov 15
Location: 13.0°N 80.0°W
Moving: NNW 8 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 25 mph

The NHC has kept a HIGH (80%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation for 90L over the next 5 days.
two_atl_5d0

Based on the past 12 hour co-ordinates, the motion of the disturbance was to the NNW at around 8 mph.  Steering currents are weak, and I do not expect much movement over the next 48-72 hours. 

Satellite loop imagery indicates the system to be less organized than yesterday, with diminished convection.

INVEST 90L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
avn0-lalo-90l

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Based on analysis of the wind shear and upper level wind products from CIMSS, this can be attributed to what may be a temporary collapse on the upper outflow pattern, and displacement of the upper level anticyclone to the SW of the “center”  Wind shear values are within the marginal values at the moment.  It is noted, that in the past 3 hours, the upper level anticyclone may be trying to re-establish over the system, as the feature has moved slightly to the NE.  The current wind shear forecast does indicate the upper level anticyclone to re-position over 90L in a few days, and shear values are forecast to drop below 10 knots within the next 48-72 hours.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PRODUCTS
wg8shr

wg8wvir

Based on this, and that the disturbance has ample moisture to work with, I am calling for further, slow organization and development.  Based on the majority of the intensity forecast models, the models keep this below T.S. strength to minimal T.S. strength.  It is noted, that in analysis of the global models this morning, the GFS now does not develop 90L, and sends it into either the Isthmus of Panama, or into Nicaragua.  The CMC GGEM appears to show a minimal T.S., while the ECMWF is still indicating a hurricane.  I know this seems like a broken record, but track and intensity is preliminary, and will be up in the air, until we get an organized system with a closed LLC.

So, based on that, the GFS keeps this system pretty much stationary over the next few days showing no development, then takes it WSW into land.  The CMC GGEM shows the system meandering around, clipping Central America, then back out over the Caribbean, then eventually dissipating it over Nicaragua.  The ECMWF keeps the system over water, and from the initial position, brings it E to ENE briefly, then has it meander on a semi-cyclonic loop, and by day 10, places it almost stationary in the W Caribbean.  The GFS and ECMWF EPS modeling tends to favor the stationary/looping scenario at the moment.  Another one of these “headaches”.

CMC GGEM
cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_9

cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_37

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_17

ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_41

GFS/ECMWF EPS MODELS
gefs_al90_2016111612

eps_al90_2016111600

I will continue to monitor this situation, and will have another update Sunday, unless I have time Saturday after work.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 90L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 16, 2016…2:55 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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