TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 90L…SOUTH CARIBBEAN SEA…FORECAST SYNOPSIS ISSUED NOV. 15, 2016…1:20 P.M. EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: INVEST 90L

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather I have been monitoring in the extreme S. Central Caribbean Sea has been designated early this a.m. as INVEST 90L.  The NHC has designated a HIGH (80%) probability for Tropical Cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

two_atl_5d0

Satellite loop imagery tends to indicate the disturbance has become slightly better organized over the course of the morning.  Analysis of the ATCF BTK product from 18Z this morning, the following information was available on INVEST 90L:

1:00 PM EST Tue Nov 15
Location: 11.9°N 78.0°W
Moving: Drifting N of due West 5 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 25 mph

WATL / RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY(CLICK FOR LOOPING IMAGE)
avn-l-watl

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Based on analysis of the current wind shear product and upper level satellite derived wind product from CIMSS, and upper level anticyclone has become established over the area, and is situated in a manner that conditions are conducive for further slow development.  The upper level pattern indicates upper level outflow is becoming established.  I’ll be looking at this to see if the trend continues.  Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, upper level winds are forecast to remain conducive for slow development, with an intermittent period of the upper level pattern becoming slightly less conducive in about 3 days, then recovering and becoming conducive once again for development.  This is most likely the reason we (NHC and  this forecast center) are calling for slow development.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
tccapture-90l-shear

tccapture-90l-upper

Analysis of the current intensity models indicates a split as far as future intensity, and this is to be expected given this is the initialization period of the system.  For the time being, and this should be considered preliminary, based on a blend of the most accurate intensity models, INVEST 90L may attain mid to strong Tropical Storm status, should forecast conditions pan out. It is noted however, based on analysis of the 3 global models (GFS, GGEM, ECMWF) there are 3 different solutions at the moment.  GFS only brings the system to a minimal T.S., the CMC GGEM indicates a 50 knot T.S., and the ECMWF is indicating a 95 kt, 966 mb Hurricane.  Again, models will be fluctuating run to run, until we get an organized system to track.

As far as forecast track?  One again, preliminary.  The initial run of the Dynamic Model suite was inconclusive this morning, as the system was just initialized early this morning.  The ECMWF and CMC GGEM however indicate initially for this system to meander for a few days, then head ENE to NE, stall briefly, then begin to head back toward a W to WNW track, while the GFS has it meandering around in the current location. Both the GFS and CMC GGEM bring this back over land in Central America as a weakening system, with the ECMWF indicating a more WNW track, then stalling the system SW of Jamaica by day ten.  My professional advice is, not to get too involved with the spaghetti plots at the moment, as most of those displayed are statistical, and we do not have developed, well defined LLC as of yet.

I will continue to monitor this situation, and will have another update sometime tomorrow.  Next update thereafter will be Sunday, unless I have time Saturday after work.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 90L…SOUTH CARIBBEAN SEA…FORECAST SYNOPSIS ISSUED NOV. 15, 2016…1:20 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Well, at least it isn’t an earthquake … you can’t really prepare for those and there’s no time to evacuate. Prayers to all in the path of this system. Prayers to my nephews and everyone else in New Zealand and Italy.

  2. Bruce says:

    Thanks for the update Chief ! Interesting situation… Will be keeping in touch. /bruce

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