TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: INVEST 90L
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather I have been monitoring in the extreme S. Central Caribbean Sea has been designated early this a.m. as INVEST 90L. The NHC has designated a HIGH (80%) probability for Tropical Cyclone formation over the next 5 days.
Satellite loop imagery tends to indicate the disturbance has become slightly better organized over the course of the morning. Analysis of the ATCF BTK product from 18Z this morning, the following information was available on INVEST 90L:
1:00 PM EST Tue Nov 15
Location: 11.9°N 78.0°W
Moving: Drifting N of due West 5 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
Based on analysis of the current wind shear product and upper level satellite derived wind product from CIMSS, and upper level anticyclone has become established over the area, and is situated in a manner that conditions are conducive for further slow development. The upper level pattern indicates upper level outflow is becoming established. I’ll be looking at this to see if the trend continues. Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, upper level winds are forecast to remain conducive for slow development, with an intermittent period of the upper level pattern becoming slightly less conducive in about 3 days, then recovering and becoming conducive once again for development. This is most likely the reason we (NHC and this forecast center) are calling for slow development.
Analysis of the current intensity models indicates a split as far as future intensity, and this is to be expected given this is the initialization period of the system. For the time being, and this should be considered preliminary, based on a blend of the most accurate intensity models, INVEST 90L may attain mid to strong Tropical Storm status, should forecast conditions pan out. It is noted however, based on analysis of the 3 global models (GFS, GGEM, ECMWF) there are 3 different solutions at the moment. GFS only brings the system to a minimal T.S., the CMC GGEM indicates a 50 knot T.S., and the ECMWF is indicating a 95 kt, 966 mb Hurricane. Again, models will be fluctuating run to run, until we get an organized system to track.
As far as forecast track? One again, preliminary. The initial run of the Dynamic Model suite was inconclusive this morning, as the system was just initialized early this morning. The ECMWF and CMC GGEM however indicate initially for this system to meander for a few days, then head ENE to NE, stall briefly, then begin to head back toward a W to WNW track, while the GFS has it meandering around in the current location. Both the GFS and CMC GGEM bring this back over land in Central America as a weakening system, with the ECMWF indicating a more WNW track, then stalling the system SW of Jamaica by day ten. My professional advice is, not to get too involved with the spaghetti plots at the moment, as most of those displayed are statistical, and we do not have developed, well defined LLC as of yet.
I will continue to monitor this situation, and will have another update sometime tomorrow. Next update thereafter will be Sunday, unless I have time Saturday after work.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS