PROBABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 13, 2016…5:55 P.M. EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MEDIUM (60%)

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

Not very much change in the tropical weather forecast from last evening.  An area of disturbed weather still remains in the South Central Caribbean, North of Panama.  Having analyzed the global models this evening, I believe this area to be the catalyst for the current forecast of development of a broad low pressure area.  The NHC has increased the probability of Tropical Cyclone formation over the area to MEDIUM (60%) during the next 5 days.

WESTERN ATLANTIC / RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK FOR LOOP)
avn-l-watl

tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

Based upon analysis of the 3 leading global models, the ECMWF and GGEM are in fair agreement on the possible development, with the ECMWF now dissipating the system as it approaches the coast of Hispaniola, and the GGEM brings a minimal Tropical Storm over Haiti.  The GFS indicates a low being initialized in about 96 hours, then drops it.  I am inclined to go with the ECMWF solution, seeing it has been consistent run to run over the past 72-96 hours, and based on the NHC mentioning upper level winds are forecast to be conducive, this is shown with the ECMWF.  The GFS does indicate an upper level anti-cyclone aloft in about 5-6 days, however it places the upper feature over the Isthmus of Panama.

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_21

gfs_mslp_sig_carib_30

GGEM
cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_17

cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_25

cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_34

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_17

ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_25

ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_33

ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 48-96 / 72-120 HOURS
eps_tcprob_20_carib_2

eps_tcprob_20_carib_3

I will continue to monitor this situation, and will have the usual update pattern, based on my work schedule. 

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to PROBABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 13, 2016…5:55 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Just checked again your pre-season projections, and you were right on the money!!

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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