TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MEDIUM (60%)
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
Not very much change in the tropical weather forecast from last evening. An area of disturbed weather still remains in the South Central Caribbean, North of Panama. Having analyzed the global models this evening, I believe this area to be the catalyst for the current forecast of development of a broad low pressure area. The NHC has increased the probability of Tropical Cyclone formation over the area to MEDIUM (60%) during the next 5 days.
Based upon analysis of the 3 leading global models, the ECMWF and GGEM are in fair agreement on the possible development, with the ECMWF now dissipating the system as it approaches the coast of Hispaniola, and the GGEM brings a minimal Tropical Storm over Haiti. The GFS indicates a low being initialized in about 96 hours, then drops it. I am inclined to go with the ECMWF solution, seeing it has been consistent run to run over the past 72-96 hours, and based on the NHC mentioning upper level winds are forecast to be conducive, this is shown with the ECMWF. The GFS does indicate an upper level anti-cyclone aloft in about 5-6 days, however it places the upper feature over the Isthmus of Panama.
I will continue to monitor this situation, and will have the usual update pattern, based on my work schedule.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS