TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MEDIUM (50%)
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites. The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
UPDATE: As this forecast was being posted, the NHC increased the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability to MEDIUM (50%)
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with an area of disturbed weather just near the Central American coast. The NHC has mentioned in the 5 day graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, the area where the global models have been indicating an area of low pressure to develop next week. It is unclear if the current disturbed weather is going to be the catalyst or not, as current steering indicates the current flow would tend to push this area SSW into the PAC side. However, analysis of the current forecast steering maps indicates this disturbed weather may meander, Quasi-stationary for a few days, and then develop. The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation during the next 5 days.
Analysis of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC GGEM all agree on the development of either a Tropical Depression, or Tropical Storm. The ECMWF and GGEM show a little faster solution in forward motion, while the GFS indicates a slower motion. The GGEM and ECMWF bring the system near or over Haiti in about 8-9 days, with the GFS not showing this until near day 14. The ECMWF indicates a weaker system, while the GFS and GGEM indicate a high end Tropical Storm (just what Haiti doesn’t need). In my professional opinion, it’s too early to speak about track and strength, until we get a well defined system with a closed LLC. However, the current wind shear/200 mb streamline forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds to become conducive for development during the next 5-7 days.
I will continue to monitor this situation, and will have the usual update pattern, based on my work schedule. I should have another update sometime tomorrow (late), but I have to work on Monday.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS