CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 12, 2016…8:20 P.M. EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MEDIUM (50%)

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

UPDATE:  As this forecast was being posted, the NHC increased the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability to MEDIUM (50%)

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with an area of disturbed weather just near the Central American coast.  The NHC has mentioned in the 5 day graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, the area where the global models have been indicating an area of low pressure to develop next week.  It is unclear if the current disturbed weather is going to be the catalyst or not, as current steering indicates the current flow would tend to  push this area SSW into the PAC side.  However, analysis of the current forecast steering maps indicates this disturbed weather may meander, Quasi-stationary for a few days, and then develop.  The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of Tropical Cyclone formation during the next 5 days.

CARIBBEAN / RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK IMAGES FOR LOOP)
avn-l-caribbean

tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

Analysis of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC GGEM all agree on the development of either a Tropical Depression, or Tropical Storm.  The ECMWF and GGEM show a little faster solution in forward motion, while the GFS indicates a slower motion.  The GGEM and ECMWF bring the system near or over Haiti in about 8-9 days, with the GFS not showing this until near day 14.  The ECMWF indicates a weaker system, while the GFS and GGEM indicate a high end Tropical Storm (just what Haiti doesn’t need).  In my professional opinion, it’s too early to speak about track and strength, until we get a well defined system with a closed LLC.  However, the current wind shear/200 mb streamline forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds to become conducive for development during the next 5-7 days.

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_41

gfs_mslp_sig_carib_57
GGEM
cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_21

cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_25

cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_35

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_21

ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_33

I will continue to monitor this situation, and will have the usual update pattern, based on my work schedule.  I should have another update sometime tomorrow (late), but I have to work on Monday.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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