POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT CARIBBEAN SEA / POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 09, 2016…6:00 P.M. EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

The convection and cyclonic turning withe the surface trof I mentioned, East of the Windward Islands has diminished.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l-caribbean

Elsewhere, the 3 main Global Models…ECMWF, GFS and CMC GGEM still indicate the probability of some tropical development in the extreme S. Central Caribbean Sea in approximately 6-8 days.  The GFS is showing the weakest solution with a possible Tropical Depression, with the ECMWF indicating a borderline Depression/Minimal T.S., and the CMC being the most bullish, bordering on a minimal CAT 1 Hurricane.  Based on the current GFS wind shear forecast, I have to rule out the GGEM solution at the moment, and feel if development does occur, it may be closer to the ECMWF solution.  The ECMWF Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product indicates a high probability for a depression , and medium probability of a tropical storm developing.

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_35
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_41

GGEM
cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_25

cmc_slp_qpf6_carib_36

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_29

ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_41

Elsewhere, after a shift in location well offshore  early this morning of the East Coast low I’ve been speaking of, the ECMWF on the latest run still indicates a coastal low to develop within the same time frame as the possible Caribbean development, and once again, still has support from the CMC GGEM. The GFS has not picked up on this.

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_watl_28
ecmwf_mslp_watl_31

GGEM
cmc_slp_qpf6_watl_24

cmc_slp_qpf6_watl_28

Should these features come to fruition, I will be sending out updates on my days off from work, and as time permits.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT CARIBBEAN SEA / POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 09, 2016…6:00 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thank You!

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