TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
The convection and cyclonic turning withe the surface trof I mentioned, East of the Windward Islands has diminished.
Elsewhere, the 3 main Global Models…ECMWF, GFS and CMC GGEM still indicate the probability of some tropical development in the extreme S. Central Caribbean Sea in approximately 6-8 days. The GFS is showing the weakest solution with a possible Tropical Depression, with the ECMWF indicating a borderline Depression/Minimal T.S., and the CMC being the most bullish, bordering on a minimal CAT 1 Hurricane. Based on the current GFS wind shear forecast, I have to rule out the GGEM solution at the moment, and feel if development does occur, it may be closer to the ECMWF solution. The ECMWF Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product indicates a high probability for a depression , and medium probability of a tropical storm developing.
Elsewhere, after a shift in location well offshore early this morning of the East Coast low I’ve been speaking of, the ECMWF on the latest run still indicates a coastal low to develop within the same time frame as the possible Caribbean development, and once again, still has support from the CMC GGEM. The GFS has not picked up on this.
Should these features come to fruition, I will be sending out updates on my days off from work, and as time permits.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS