POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT / POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 08, 2016…1:15 P.M. EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

UPDATE…5:00 P.M. EST…NOV. 08, 2016

I am currently monitoring an area of disturbed weather located east of the Windward Islands.  This area was not well defined upon analysis earlier today.  However, this area, associated with a surface trof ow low pressure, appears to have become better organized over the past few hours.  Convection is limited, and upper level winds are marginal at the moment, although shear has diminished throughout the day.  Albeit I am not expecting development of this area, given the upper level forecast, I will monitor this area for any changes.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
ir2-l-carib

The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Basin remains quiet this afternoon.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP WIDE VIEW
avn-l-wide

However, the ECMWF having been consistent now over the past 2 days, has supporting agreement from the GFS and CMC GGEM models, in that a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm may develop in the extreme South Central Caribbean within the next 7-10 days, with the GFS indicating a slower solution.  The GFS had previously dropped this scenario, but appears to have picked it up once more.  Analysis of the wind shear forecast from both the ECMWF and GFS indicates the wind shear/200 mb streamline pattern may be conducive for development at that time.

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_35
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_41

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_41

gfs_mslp_sig_carib_61

CMC GGEM
cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_33

cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_39

Analysis of the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability model indicates a fairly high probability of a Tropical Depression forming in about 7-10 days in the forecast period from 00Z yesterday evening.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
eps_tcprob_20_carib_6

The current projected motion provided by the models during analysis indicates if this development occurs, it could affect Haiti.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7-10 days.

Along with the possibility of tropical development, the possibility still remains of a coastal storm threat along the Eastern Seaboard IVO of the Cape Cod area during the same forecast period of 7-10 days.  The ECMWF has been consistent with this solution, and again, is receiving support from the CMC GGEM.  The GFS showed the solution on it’s early morning run, but has since dropped it.  Given the inconsistency of the GFS, I am leaning toward the ECMWF on both scenarios at this time.

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_watl_38
ecmwf_mslp_sig_watl_40

GGEM
cmc_mslp_uv10m_east_35

I will continue to monitor both areas tomorrow, but will not have another update until late Saturday evening, or Sunday evening.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT / POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 08, 2016…1:15 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for all you do.

  2. Port Aransas BeachBum says:

    Thanks Storm ! As the season winds down I get more and more anxious. At age 86 I don’t need any more anxiety! The “campaign season”, which come to an end tonight, generates more anxiety than this 86 year old man needs. I chose to shut down the network TV and stick to old “James Bond” movies instead ! Believe it or not, It Helps!

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