TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
UPDATE…5:00 P.M. EST…NOV. 08, 2016
I am currently monitoring an area of disturbed weather located east of the Windward Islands. This area was not well defined upon analysis earlier today. However, this area, associated with a surface trof ow low pressure, appears to have become better organized over the past few hours. Convection is limited, and upper level winds are marginal at the moment, although shear has diminished throughout the day. Albeit I am not expecting development of this area, given the upper level forecast, I will monitor this area for any changes.
The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Basin remains quiet this afternoon.
However, the ECMWF having been consistent now over the past 2 days, has supporting agreement from the GFS and CMC GGEM models, in that a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm may develop in the extreme South Central Caribbean within the next 7-10 days, with the GFS indicating a slower solution. The GFS had previously dropped this scenario, but appears to have picked it up once more. Analysis of the wind shear forecast from both the ECMWF and GFS indicates the wind shear/200 mb streamline pattern may be conducive for development at that time.
Analysis of the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability model indicates a fairly high probability of a Tropical Depression forming in about 7-10 days in the forecast period from 00Z yesterday evening.
The current projected motion provided by the models during analysis indicates if this development occurs, it could affect Haiti.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7-10 days.
Along with the possibility of tropical development, the possibility still remains of a coastal storm threat along the Eastern Seaboard IVO of the Cape Cod area during the same forecast period of 7-10 days. The ECMWF has been consistent with this solution, and again, is receiving support from the CMC GGEM. The GFS showed the solution on it’s early morning run, but has since dropped it. Given the inconsistency of the GFS, I am leaning toward the ECMWF on both scenarios at this time.
I will continue to monitor both areas tomorrow, but will not have another update until late Saturday evening, or Sunday evening.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS