TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Not really anything to speak of in satellite loop imagery this evening.
Analysis of the global models revealed some mixed signals regarding low pressure areas over the next 5-10 days. The GFS indicates a 1014 mb trof, closing to a 1014 mb low over the GOMEX at around 54-72 hours in the forecast period from this afternoons run, then crossing across the northern FL, Peninsula, then offshore of the OBX by 120 hours out. The ECMWF and pretty much the CMC GGEM are in somewhat good agreement of a 1014 mb low developing closer to the W. GOMEX, with the ECMWF being further south, with the GGEM showing a 1004 mb low coming ashore over S. Louisiana, and the ECMWF keeping the low south of LA., then along the LA coast by day 10. It is also noted that the GGEM and ECMWF are hinting at something tropical in the Caribbean Sea by day 10, or OOA Nov. 16. The GFS indicated something in the Caribbean Sea a couple days ago, but has since dropped it. Given that the ECMWF is forecasting this feature, and the GGEM is in very good agreement, and very close to the same forecast as the ECMWF, I will be monitoring subsequent runs of the global modeling for agreement and consistency, and will be putting out updated forecasts as time permits on my off days from work.. IF the GFS solution comes to fruition, some minor coastal issues could occur along the VA/Carolinas area within the next 5-7 days.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS