TROPICAL WEATHER / COASTAL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 06, 2016…6:35 P.M. EST

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

Not really anything to speak of in satellite loop imagery this evening.

Analysis of the global models revealed some mixed signals regarding low pressure areas over the next 5-10 days.  The GFS indicates a 1014 mb trof, closing to a 1014 mb low over the GOMEX at around 54-72 hours in the forecast period from this afternoons run, then crossing across the northern FL, Peninsula, then offshore of the OBX by 120 hours out.  The ECMWF and pretty much the CMC GGEM are in somewhat good agreement of a 1014 mb low developing closer to the W. GOMEX, with the ECMWF being further south, with the GGEM showing a 1004 mb low coming ashore over S. Louisiana, and the ECMWF keeping the low south of LA., then along the LA coast by day 10.  It is also noted that the GGEM and ECMWF are hinting at something tropical in the Caribbean Sea by day 10, or OOA Nov. 16.  The GFS indicated something in the Caribbean Sea a couple days ago, but has since dropped it.  Given that the ECMWF is forecasting this feature, and the GGEM is in very good agreement, and very close to the same forecast as the ECMWF, I will be monitoring subsequent runs of the global modeling for agreement and consistency, and will be putting out updated forecasts as time permits on my off days from work..  IF the GFS solution comes to fruition, some minor coastal issues could occur along the VA/Carolinas area within the next 5-7 days.

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_10
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_13

gfs_mslp_sig_watl_21ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_gulf_33

ecmwf_mslp_sig_gulf_37
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_41
GGEM
cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_28

cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_33

cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_41

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to TROPICAL WEATHER / COASTAL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 06, 2016…6:35 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Looking way out, I see the 06Z GFS on Nov. 7, has some sort of tropical entity affecting Cuba then moving NE. But this is, as I said, “way out” about 360 hours or so. So I won’t lose any sleep over it! 🙂

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