TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
An area of disturbed weather I mentioned in my last forecast is associated with a 1009 mb surface low just near the coast of Honduras, and has shown an increase in convective activity, along with an increase in moisture, based on WV imagery. Albeit it seems more discernible this morning in satellite loop imagery, proximity to land should inhibit development, even though wind shear has decreased, and an upper level outflow pattern has become established, mainly south of the low. Analysis of vorticity maps this morning indicated a lack of vorticity. Looking at the overall structure of the area in question, it appears to me this will most likely become an EPAC issue over the next few days. This low is shown on the NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map this morning as dissipating. Given the area has remained stationary, I’ll keep an interest in it until either dissipation occurs, or development occurs in the EPAC.
Elsewhere, both the GFS and ECMWF are still in good agreement of the area NNW of the Leeward Islands developing, and moving off to the NE in the next few days. The ECMWF Cyclone probability model indicates a medium probability for a Tropical Depression to form over the next 48-96 hours. Should anything come of this, the possibility exists it could be tropical in nature for a brief period.
I will be monitoring this area during the next 2 days.
The ECMWF did not indicate this, as it goes out to only 10 days in the forecast, however the GFS, CMC GGEM, and NASA GEOS models seem to indicate development in the Caribbean Sea 10 – 14 days out. While I am not willing to rule this out just yet, seeing there is some model agreement, I’ll be monitoring subsequent model runs, and see if the ECMWF comes onboard, prior to taking any plausible interest in the situation. The NASA GEOS feature seems smaller, as there is no zoom into the Caribbean Sea for this model.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS