TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 31, 2016…11:10 A.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

DON’T FORGET!…Set your clocks BACK 1 HOUR before going to bed Saturday evening.
fall-back

Good day everyone!

An area of disturbed weather I mentioned in my last forecast is associated with a 1009 mb surface low just near the coast of Honduras, and has shown an increase in convective activity, along with an increase in moisture, based on WV imagery.  Albeit it seems more discernible this morning in satellite loop imagery, proximity to land should inhibit development, even though wind shear has decreased, and an upper level outflow pattern has become established, mainly south of the low.  Analysis of vorticity maps this morning indicated a lack of vorticity.  Looking at the overall structure of the area in question, it appears to me this will most likely become an EPAC issue over the next few days.  This low is shown on the NHC TAFB Surface Analysis map this morning as dissipating.  Given the area has remained stationary, I’ll keep an interest in it until either dissipation occurs, or development occurs in the EPAC.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (IR2 CHANNEL)
ir2-lwatl

CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
wg8shr

NATL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
wv-l

Elsewhere, both the GFS and ECMWF are still in good agreement of the area NNW of the Leeward Islands developing, and moving off to the NE in the next few days.  The ECMWF Cyclone probability model indicates a medium probability for a Tropical Depression to form over the next 48-96 hours.  Should anything come of this, the possibility exists it could be tropical in nature for a brief period.

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_atlantic_9

ecmwf_mslp_sig_atlantic_17

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_atlantic_9

gfs_mslp_sig_atlantic_17

I will be monitoring this area during the next 2 days.

The ECMWF did not indicate this, as it goes out to only 10 days in the forecast, however the GFS, CMC GGEM, and NASA GEOS models seem to indicate development in the Caribbean Sea 10 – 14 days out.  While I am not willing to rule this out just yet, seeing there is some model agreement, I’ll be monitoring subsequent model runs, and see if the ECMWF comes onboard, prior to taking any plausible interest in the situation.  The NASA GEOS feature seems smaller, as there is no zoom into the Caribbean Sea for this model.

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_51

gfs_mslp_sig_carib_57

gfs_mslp_sig_carib_65

GGEM
cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_41

NASA GEOS
nasa_mslp_tropatl_41

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 31, 2016…11:10 A.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Prayers to all ships in the path of the current mid-Atlantic gale force winds.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, hope you and everyone who visits here had a safe Halloween !

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Thanks for the clock warning. I’ve been in training for the upcoming elections, getting my crew assignment, contacting my team, and lost track of the clock change. Don’t the tropics know that November is tomorrow? As an aside, if anyone on the site could use a little extra money check with your Clerk of Court or State Secretary for your local details on working the polls on election day. Here we get $200 for the day and Commissioners in Charge get $250; and any given precinct has zero to four elections per year, mostly on Saturdays.

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