TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 25, 2016…7:45 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

There has really been no change to my forecast since yesterday.  Pretty much of a repeat of yesterday’s synopsis.  ALL of the basins still remain quiet.  Cloudiness and showers had increased in the W. Caribbean earlier, however high wind shear values are over the area from the GOMEX through the Lesser Antilles.

ATLANTIC BASIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l-wide

CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
wg8shr

At the moment, analysis of the global models does not indicate any support for development.

At days 8-9 in the period, the ECMWF and the GFS indicate lowering MSLP heights NE of Puerto Rico, based on both MSLP normalized anomalies, and 500 mb height normalized anomalies.  I’ll be looking at this over the next few days, mainly for model agreement and consistency, seeing how the hurricane season goes until NOV. 30

GFS
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_36
gfs_z500_norm_carib_38

Elsewhere, the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement of a brief coastal/onshore low becoming centered over the Gulf of Maine in around 60-72 hours.  Based on surface wind flow and analysis from the GFS and ECMWF, and StormSurf WaveWatch modeling, winds of 30 to possibly 40 mph with higher gusts, may be experienced along the coast and over the open Atlantic waters of New Hampshire and Maine, specifically over the Gulf of Maine.  Analysis of the WAVEWATCH modeling from Storm Surf indicates seas could reach 5-6 ft along the immediate coast, with seas ranging 10-14 ft over the Gulf of Maine by late Thur./Early Friday.  Residents along the coast may very well experience some minor coastal flooding and erosion at the time of high tide.

GFS SURFACE WINDS
gfs_uv10m_s_watl_13

ECMWF 850 MB WINDS
ecmwf_uv850_watl_14
NOTE: (Surface winds are approximately 80% of the 850 mb winds)

WAVEWATCH SEA HEIGHT AND WIND VELOCITY (CLICK IMAGES FOR LOOP)
newengland_sea_27

newengland_wind_25

It is highly recommended residents remain away from beaches during this period, and small craft should remain in port.  I recommend residents monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and tune to their local NWS for statements regarding this probable system.

The following graphic is linked to the OPC Atlantic Offshore Forecast texts:

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE MAP
atl_offshore_800px
NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON MAP)
us

With a break in the tropical action, I will most likely pick back up on severe weather forecasting, if nothing is going on in the tropics, or coastal wise.  After the close of the hurricane season, severe weather forecasts will take priority, but I will begin to delve into winter weather as warranted, with the inclusion of a winter weather discussion.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 25, 2016…7:45 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Oh, guess what?! Our generator is in and they are coming today to start installation! I’ll be all set for next hurricane season and praying I don’t need to be!

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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