TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
The GOMEX, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Basin is rather quiet at the moment. A broad area of low pressure is noted in satellite loop imagery, located near 45-50W, however upper level winds are not conducive for development.
Analysis of the GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height anomaly maps, and normalized MSLP anomaly maps, indicate a lowering of heights either in the W. Caribbean, or over the Yucatan Peninsula in about 4-4.5 days. This area however appears to move into the E.PAC. At day 10 in the period, the ECMWF indicates lowering MSLP heights NE of Puerto Rico, while the GFS is showing this to occur in the W. Caribbean in 2 weeks. I’ll be looking at this over the next few days, mainly for model agreement and consistency, seeing how the hurricane season goes until NOV. 30
Elsewhere, models are indicating a possible coastal low that may affect the New England area, mainly the Gulf of Maine region, with 25-35 knot winds, and sea heights running 10-14 ft around the area. The GFS shows a more coastal solution, while the ECMWF shows the low remaining more north and more of a E-W motion. Regardless, the models are in current agreement of the wind velocities. Boaters and Mainers should monitor this during the next few days.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
With a break in the tropical action, I will most likely pick back up on severe weather forecasting, if nothing is going on in the tropics, or coastal wise. After the close of the hurricane season, severe weather forecasts will take priority, but I will begin to delve into winter weather as warranted, with the inclusion of a winter weather discussion.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS