TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION / POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 24, 2016…12:05 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

The GOMEX, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Basin is rather quiet at the moment.  A broad area of low pressure is noted in satellite loop imagery, located near 45-50W, however upper level winds are not conducive for development.

ATLANTIC BASIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERYavn-l-wide

Analysis of the GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height anomaly maps, and normalized MSLP anomaly maps, indicate a lowering of heights either in the W. Caribbean, or over the Yucatan Peninsula in about 4-4.5 days.  This area however appears to move into the E.PAC.  At day 10 in the period, the ECMWF indicates lowering MSLP heights NE of Puerto Rico, while the GFS is showing this to occur in the W. Caribbean in 2 weeks.  I’ll be looking at this over the next few days, mainly for model agreement and consistency, seeing how the hurricane season goes until NOV. 30

GFS 108 HOURS
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_19

GFS 348 HOURSgfs_mslp_sig_carib_59

ECMWF 84 HOURS
ecmwf_z500_norm_carib_15

ECMWF 210 HOURS
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_36

Elsewhere, models are indicating a possible coastal low that may affect the New England area, mainly the Gulf of Maine region, with 25-35 knot winds, and sea heights running 10-14 ft around the area.  The GFS shows a  more coastal solution, while the ECMWF shows the low remaining more north and more of a E-W motion.  Regardless, the models are in current agreement of the wind velocities.  Boaters and Mainers should monitor this during the next few days.

GFS
gfs-96
ECMWF
ecmwf-120

STORMSURF WAVEWATCH MODEL WIND AND WAVE FORECAST (CLICK FOR LOOP)
newengland_wind_35

newengland_sea_37

ATLANTIC OFFSHORE FORECAST (CLICK MAP REGION OF INTEREST)
atl_offshore_800px

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

With a break in the tropical action, I will most likely pick back up on severe weather forecasting, if nothing is going on in the tropics, or coastal wise.  After the close of the hurricane season, severe weather forecasts will take priority, but I will begin to delve into winter weather as warranted, with the inclusion of a winter weather discussion.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION / POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 24, 2016…12:05 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I know you are busy, thanks for posting.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Agree completely with Dellamom. Looks like we escaped in the GOMEX…for now anyway. I was watching TWC and they named the #1 most dangerous hurricane city…Houston/Galveston. That’s comforting. Figured it would be MSY or MIA for sure!!

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for steering us through another busy and destructive season.

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