TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE: LOW (30%)
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
The NHC has taken interest in an area of cloudiness and showers over the northern Bahamas, which is associated with a weak surface trof interacting with an upper level low. The NHC states that upper level winds could become a little more conducive over the next several days, and have designated a LOW (30%) probability of development during the next 5 days.
Upon my analysis this afternoon, this area had weak vorticity showing at the 500 mb level, and elongated weak vorticity at the 700 mb level. A recent update to the vorticity maps indicated vorticity has increased at the 500 mb level.
Based on my analysis of the 12Z wind shear forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF, I am having a hard time at the moment, buying development from this. I do agree with the probability, however, the wind shear forecast as of 12Z indicates IF this disturbed weather should continue east, upper level winds may be only marginal at best.
The recent update of the 500 mb normalized anomaly maps from both the GFS and ECMWF seem to indicate they initialize this, back it SW briefly, then show it becoming picked up, or becoming absorbed in an approaching 500 mb trof, then possibly having a chance to become a coastal system. In any case, I will be monitoring this area for any significant changes over the next few days.
The next thing I have an issue with is, I don’t know why the models haven’t initialized the area in the SW Caribbean Sea north of Panama and near Nicaragua, and why the NHC hasn’t taken an interest in the area. Analysis of the vorticity maps indicate this area shows more vorticity than the Bahamas area, and the satellite derived upper level winds indicate an upper level out flow pattern over this area of disturbed weather.
The wind shear forecast I analyzed also indicates the wind shear/200 mb streamline pattern is forecast to be conducive for development over the next 5 days, with the premise of an upper level anticyclone over the area.
In my professional opinion, I believe this area of disturbed weather should be monitored closer than the Bahamas area at the moment.
This disturbed weather appears to be quasi-stationary, or possibly drifting to the NW. Current steering layer map indicates a weakness jutting northward, as indicated by the inverted “V” pattern in the streamlines.
Based on the forecast conditions mentioned, I feel this could become organized quicker than the disturbance over the Bahamas. Of course, I could always be wrong…however what I have just analyzed this afternoon favors the SW Caribbean more than over the Bahamas.
I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS