BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE / POSSIBLE SW CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 16, 2016…4:00 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE: LOW (30%)

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

The NHC has taken interest in an area of cloudiness and showers over the northern Bahamas, which is associated with a weak surface trof interacting with an upper level low.  The NHC states that upper level winds could become a little more conducive over the next several days, and have designated a LOW (30%) probability of development during the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP
avn-leus

Upon my analysis this afternoon, this area had weak vorticity showing at the 500 mb level, and elongated weak vorticity at the 700 mb level.  A recent update to the vorticity maps indicated vorticity has increased at the 500 mb level.

Based on my analysis of the 12Z wind shear forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF, I am having a hard time at the moment, buying development from this.  I do agree with the probability, however, the wind shear forecast as of 12Z indicates IF this disturbed weather should continue east, upper level winds may be only marginal at best.

The recent update of the 500 mb normalized anomaly maps from both the GFS and ECMWF seem to indicate they initialize this, back it SW briefly, then show it becoming picked up, or becoming absorbed in an approaching 500 mb trof, then possibly having a chance to become a coastal system.  In any case, I will be monitoring this area for any significant changes over the next few days.

GFS
gfs_z500_norm_carib_8
gfs_z500_norm_carib_22

ECMWF
ecmwf_z500_norm_carib_9

ecmwf_z500_norm_watl_21

ecmwf_z500_norm_watl_27

The next thing I have an issue with is, I don’t know why the models haven’t initialized the area in the SW Caribbean Sea north of Panama and near Nicaragua, and why the NHC hasn’t taken an interest in the area.  Analysis of the vorticity maps indicate this area shows more vorticity than the Bahamas area, and the satellite derived upper level winds indicate an upper level out flow pattern over this area of disturbed weather. 

RAMSDIS FLOATER LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

NOAA WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l-watl

jsl-l-watl

The wind shear forecast I analyzed also indicates the wind shear/200 mb streamline pattern is forecast to be conducive for development over the next 5 days, with the premise of an upper level anticyclone over the area.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
gfs_dl_shear_carib_17
gfs_dl_shear_carib_21

CIMSS 700 MB VORTICITYwg8vor3

CIMSS 500 MB VORTICITY
wg8vor2

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
wg8wvir

In my professional opinion, I believe this area of disturbed weather should be monitored closer than the Bahamas area at the moment.

This disturbed weather appears to be quasi-stationary, or possibly drifting to the NW.  Current steering layer map indicates a weakness jutting northward, as indicated by the inverted “V” pattern in the streamlines.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MAP
wg8dlm1

Based on the forecast conditions mentioned, I feel this could become organized quicker than the disturbance over the Bahamas.  Of course, I could always be wrong…however what I have just analyzed this afternoon favors the SW Caribbean more than over the Bahamas.

I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to BAHAMAS DISTURBANCE / POSSIBLE SW CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 16, 2016…4:00 P.M. EDT

  1. ALANA2RELATE says:

    Reblogged this on Alana2relate's Blog and commented:
    If you are not following Storm W. You’re missing out. I know I keep saying that but only because it’s the truth!

  2. ALANA2RELATE says:

    Thanks Storm and yes Ems I agree with everything you said!! Stay blessed all!!!

  3. Yuo are the best, love the fact that you are a free thinker and able to come to your own educated opinions and not just a rubber stamp for the NHC or NWS. I can always count on your years of experience peering into the situation and not just reading from a cue card like so many do…Your efforts are appreciated!

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