TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: HURRICANE NICOLE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
Nicole is still a hurricane, but is displaying a “hybrid” structure. However, the GFS and ECMWF are forecasting organized convection around the center for the next 36 -48 hours, in which she would still be considered maintaining tropical characteristics. Nicole is forecast to continue on a slow easterly motion for about 36 hours, then be turned more toward the NNE and accelerate quickly. This will be my last mention of Nicole.
Elsewhere, and area of disturbed weather is noted IVO the Gulf of Honduras / Nicaragua-Honduras border. Convection has increased over the area during the past few hours. At the moment, I am somewhat unsure as to whether this area is a separate entity, or if it is associated with the forecast trof split I have been calling for. Here is where the confusion lies at the moment…the NHC 12Z Surface Analysis map indicates a weak trof in that vicinity, however, analysis of the GFS and ECMWF global models pressure level maps indicate the aforementioned trof split is not due to occur for almost another 48 hours. On the other hand, the 12Z ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability modeling indicates a 50% probability of a Tropical Depression developing in the time frames of 24-72;48-96 hours. IF this is the case, then the disturbed weather would most likely be the entity that a depression could develop from. If not, then we look toward the trof split for some sort of mischief.
Regarding more of the last statement, and somewhat of the first, the GFS and ECMWF are showing the tendency should anything come to fruition, that it may be drawn northward toward the GOMEX. The models at the moment seem to be indicating that any development may become absorbed by the 500 mb trof, and could have the possibility of becoming a coastal system late next week.
Based on the uncertainty at the moment of how this will play out, it seems the forecast regarding this situation will be best handled in real time, meaning, let’s see if and when something develops, then revisit the pattern as soon as possible as far as the upper pattern and steering currents, along with the 500 mb forecast pattern. As of the last runs of the models, the 500 mb anomaly pattern over the next 48-72 hours, and the surface anomaly maps, are indicating differences between them. However, both do indicate the phasing of the area in question, with the forecast 500 mb trof slated to dip down and move toward the E and NE.
I will continue to monitor this situation during the next 72 hours. I have some busy “off” time, so I cannot pinpoint right now what time my updates will be. I intend to update sometime tomorrow, and Mon., but am scheduled for an extra work day on Tue., and will be off on Wed.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS