POSSIBLE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 15, 2016…8:15 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: HURRICANE NICOLE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!

CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

Nicole is still a hurricane, but is displaying a “hybrid” structure. However, the GFS and ECMWF are forecasting organized convection around the center for the next 36 -48 hours, in which she would still be considered maintaining tropical characteristics.  Nicole is forecast to continue on a slow easterly motion for about 36 hours, then be turned more toward the NNE and accelerate quickly.  This will be my last mention of Nicole.

NHC TRACKING GRAPHIC
203604w_sm

Elsewhere, and area of disturbed weather is noted IVO the Gulf of Honduras / Nicaragua-Honduras border.  Convection has increased over the area during the past few hours.  At the moment, I am somewhat unsure as to whether this area is a separate entity, or if it is associated with the forecast trof split I have been calling for.  Here is where the confusion lies at the moment…the NHC 12Z Surface Analysis map indicates a weak trof in that vicinity, however, analysis of the GFS and ECMWF global models pressure level maps indicate the aforementioned trof split is not due to occur for almost another 48 hours.  On the other hand, the 12Z ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability modeling indicates a 50% probability of a Tropical Depression developing in the time frames of 24-72;48-96 hours.  IF this is the case, then the disturbed weather would most likely be the entity that a depression could develop from.  If not, then we look toward the trof split for some sort of mischief.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l-watl

jsl-l-watl

12Z ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
eps_tcprob_20_carib_1

eps_tcprob_20_carib_2Regarding more of the last statement, and somewhat of the first, the GFS and ECMWF are showing the tendency should anything come to fruition, that it may be drawn northward toward the GOMEX.  The models at the moment seem to be indicating that any development may become absorbed by the 500 mb trof, and could have the possibility of becoming a coastal system late next week.

GFS 500 MB NORMALIZED ANOMALIES
gfs_z500_norm_watl_8
gfs_z500_norm_watl_18

gfs_z500_norm_watl_26

gfs_z500_norm_watl_31

ECMWF
ecmwf_z500_norm_carib_9

ecmwf_z500_norm_carib_21

ecmwf_z500_norm_carib_27

ecmwf_z500_norm_east3_32

Based on the uncertainty at the moment of how this will play out, it seems the forecast regarding this situation will be best handled in real time, meaning, let’s see if and when something develops, then revisit the pattern as soon as possible as far as the upper pattern and steering currents, along with the 500 mb forecast pattern.  As of the last runs of the models, the 500 mb anomaly pattern over the next 48-72 hours, and the surface anomaly maps, are indicating differences between them.  However, both do indicate the phasing of the area in question, with the forecast 500 mb trof slated to dip down and move toward the E and NE.

I will continue to monitor this situation during the next 72 hours.  I have some busy “off” time, so I cannot pinpoint right now what time my updates will be. I intend to update sometime tomorrow, and Mon., but am scheduled for an extra work day on Tue., and will be off on Wed.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to POSSIBLE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 15, 2016…8:15 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm. I will be watching.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s