HURRICANE NICOLE….POSSIBLE W. CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 11, 2016…6:10 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: HURRICANE NICOLE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

Nicole continues to move toward the NNW this morning, South of Bermuda.  As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Nicole:

5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 11
Location: 27.4°N 66.4°W
Moving: NW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb / 28.94 in
Max sustained: 80 mph

NICOLE NHC TRACKING MAPS FROM HURREVAC
hurrevac-nicole-error

hurrevac-nicole-wnd

Satellite loop imagery indicates Nicole’s presentation has become much better organized and more symmetric throughout the morning, and is definitely the satellite signature of a hurricane.

NICOLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0-lalo-nicole

jsl0-lalo-nicole

The estimated motion is NW at 5 mph, and steering was weak.  However, during the next 24 hours, Nicole should make more of a definite northward turn, as she begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge, and weakness in the ridge.  Based on analysis of forecast steering, and 18Z Dynamic model guidance, I concur with the NHC forecast track, which appears to put a direct landfall over the Island of Bermuda, or the eastern eyewall just along the west coast of the Island.  The summary of watches and warnings is provided through the NHC.

18z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
97l-18z-dynamic

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Please use the following link for associated hazards from Nicole:

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/112037.shtml?

After a battle with shear and dry air yesterday, Nicole has become much better organized and symmetrical, with much improved outflow noted by the clockwise flow of clouds in the upper.  The current forecast from the GFS wind shear and 200 mb streamline forecast indicates Nicole should have an environment conducive for further development and strengthening, along with warm SST’s.  Based on the upper level pattern forecast, and forecast shear values, I give Nicole about a 24-36 hour window for further intensification.  Based on the improved forecast conditions, and the NHC favoring the LGEM and FSSE guidance, I concur with their intensity forecast for this advisory. NHC now brings Nicole to a strong Category 2 hurricane.  Based on the premise of a 30% probability of R.I, I am hesitant to rule out CAT 3 hurricane as it passes Bermuda.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 11/2100Z 27.4N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.0N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 64.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 38.0N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 41.0N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z 41.5N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

I will continue to monitor Nicole today and tomorrow, but may not have another update on the tropics until late Saturday, or late Sunday.

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models GFS and ECMWF still indicate the trof split I mentioned in yesterdays synopsis, and now indicate some type of development in the W. Caribbean Sea, initializing significant pressure height falls in about 8-10 days, and a closed low by day 10.  The GFS and ECMWF are almost in uncanny agreement as far as the location of initialization of the closed low.  Albeit this is still 8-10 days out, the ECMWF being a medium range model has the tendency to score fairly well that far out in the forecast period.  The recent updated model runs indicate however the GFS has flipped to slower development and backed off on strength, with the ECMWF remaining Status Quo.   We have another added factor this morning, in that the last available run just prior to issuance of this synopsis, is that 2 of the other global models are now onboard…the CMC GGEM and NAVGEM indicating development, with NAVGEM being a little too quick.  The NASA GEOS model is also onboard.  The GGEM just recently came closer to the GFS/ECMWF solution in bringing development into the W. Caribbean.  It previously showed a closed low developing much further east,and bringing it across Jamaica and Cuba.

As I stated in my morning synopsis, the forecast motion of the forecast system will continue to change, until we see some type of surface circulation form.  GFS had this as a CAT 2 Hurricane into Tampa Bay region this morning, and now shows a more west track in the GOMEX and weaker.  Any forecast track by the global models at this time, should be considered low confidence.

GFS
gfs_z500_norm_carib_29

gfs_z500_norm_carib_41

gfs_z500_norm_carib_65

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_33

ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_40

ecmwf_mslp_sig_carib_41

GGEM
cmc_precip_mslp_mex_41

NAVGEM
nav_precip_mslp_mex_25

NASA GEOS
nasa_mslp_atlantic_40
In yesterdays synopsis, I mentioned development if any, could be most likely sub-tropical due to the nature of the 200 mb and wind shear pattern.  Analysis this morning shows a total 180, with a 200 mb streamline and shear pattern reversal, now calling for a favorable upper level environment to begin to take shape by day 6, and become favorable by day 10.  The GFS long range keeps an upper level anticyclone over the supposed system through the 2 week forecast period….again confidence should be considered low at the moment.  Models also indicate the presence of very high TPW values in the forecast

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
gfs_dl_shear_carib_29

gfs_dl_shear_carib_41

I will be monitoring the models for run to run consistency, and any significant changes that may occur.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to HURRICANE NICOLE….POSSIBLE W. CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 11, 2016…6:10 P.M. EDT

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hey LT. Nice to meet you Alana. Just a quick thought buddy…do you think GOMEX cyclones might be done. Sure seems like we have a shield around us. Maybe not

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, hope some how it misses Bermuda.Was there twice over the summer. Lovely Island. Clean, nice people.

  3. ALANA2RELATE says:

    Reblogged this on Alana2relate's Blog and commented:
    Check out Storm W. Stay up on the latest weather in the tropics!! He Rocks and knows his stuff!!!

  4. ALANA2RELATE says:

    Thanks Storm, NO MORE HURRICANES only fish ones!!! Matthew did enough damage… take care

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