TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: HURRICANE NICOLE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
Nicole continues to move toward the NNW this morning, South of Bermuda. As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Nicole:
5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 11
Location: 27.4°N 66.4°W
Moving: NW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb / 28.94 in
Max sustained: 80 mph
Satellite loop imagery indicates Nicole’s presentation has become much better organized and more symmetric throughout the morning, and is definitely the satellite signature of a hurricane.
The estimated motion is NW at 5 mph, and steering was weak. However, during the next 24 hours, Nicole should make more of a definite northward turn, as she begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge, and weakness in the ridge. Based on analysis of forecast steering, and 18Z Dynamic model guidance, I concur with the NHC forecast track, which appears to put a direct landfall over the Island of Bermuda, or the eastern eyewall just along the west coast of the Island. The summary of watches and warnings is provided through the NHC.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Please use the following link for associated hazards from Nicole:
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
After a battle with shear and dry air yesterday, Nicole has become much better organized and symmetrical, with much improved outflow noted by the clockwise flow of clouds in the upper. The current forecast from the GFS wind shear and 200 mb streamline forecast indicates Nicole should have an environment conducive for further development and strengthening, along with warm SST’s. Based on the upper level pattern forecast, and forecast shear values, I give Nicole about a 24-36 hour window for further intensification. Based on the improved forecast conditions, and the NHC favoring the LGEM and FSSE guidance, I concur with their intensity forecast for this advisory. NHC now brings Nicole to a strong Category 2 hurricane. Based on the premise of a 30% probability of R.I, I am hesitant to rule out CAT 3 hurricane as it passes Bermuda.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 11/2100Z 27.4N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.0N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 64.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 38.0N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 41.0N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z 41.5N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
I will continue to monitor Nicole today and tomorrow, but may not have another update on the tropics until late Saturday, or late Sunday.
Elsewhere, analysis of the global models GFS and ECMWF still indicate the trof split I mentioned in yesterdays synopsis, and now indicate some type of development in the W. Caribbean Sea, initializing significant pressure height falls in about 8-10 days, and a closed low by day 10. The GFS and ECMWF are almost in uncanny agreement as far as the location of initialization of the closed low. Albeit this is still 8-10 days out, the ECMWF being a medium range model has the tendency to score fairly well that far out in the forecast period. The recent updated model runs indicate however the GFS has flipped to slower development and backed off on strength, with the ECMWF remaining Status Quo. We have another added factor this morning, in that the last available run just prior to issuance of this synopsis, is that 2 of the other global models are now onboard…the CMC GGEM and NAVGEM indicating development, with NAVGEM being a little too quick. The NASA GEOS model is also onboard. The GGEM just recently came closer to the GFS/ECMWF solution in bringing development into the W. Caribbean. It previously showed a closed low developing much further east,and bringing it across Jamaica and Cuba.
As I stated in my morning synopsis, the forecast motion of the forecast system will continue to change, until we see some type of surface circulation form. GFS had this as a CAT 2 Hurricane into Tampa Bay region this morning, and now shows a more west track in the GOMEX and weaker. Any forecast track by the global models at this time, should be considered low confidence.
In yesterdays synopsis, I mentioned development if any, could be most likely sub-tropical due to the nature of the 200 mb and wind shear pattern. Analysis this morning shows a total 180, with a 200 mb streamline and shear pattern reversal, now calling for a favorable upper level environment to begin to take shape by day 6, and become favorable by day 10. The GFS long range keeps an upper level anticyclone over the supposed system through the 2 week forecast period….again confidence should be considered low at the moment. Models also indicate the presence of very high TPW values in the forecast
I will be monitoring the models for run to run consistency, and any significant changes that may occur.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS