TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Tropical Storm Nicole was located approximately 455 miles South of Bermuda at 11:00 a.m. The following information was available from the NHC 11:00 a.m. advisory:
Satellite loop imagery indicates Nicole’s presentation has deteriorated and become less organized since yesterday, due to ongoing N to NELY wind shear of about 25 kts. Water vapor imagery also indicates some slight ingestion of drier air by Nicole.
Nicole is moving to the north, and I expect this motion to continue for today, or most of today. The forecast pattern then calls for the shortwave trof digging down from Canada, over the NE U.S., to bypass Nicole, and a weak 500 mb ridge to build north of Nicole, which would allow a bend to the left in track through day 2. By this time, she should reach the westerlies, and make a turn toward the NE. Based on forecast steering maps, and dynamic model guidance from 12Z, this appears to be the agreed upon scenario. However, with the shift left in track at the moment, and based on analysis of the GFS and ECMWF current runs, the center of Nicole could just brush the eastern coast of Bermuda, or she may actually make a direct landfall over the center of the island, which has been shown in the ECMWF 12Z and 00Z runs from yesterday morning and evening. The 12Z ECMWF model information was not available as of the time of this synopsis.
Regardless, the residents of the Island of Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system closely, and be prepared to take preparedness action for a possible Category ONE Hurricane if and when watches and warnings go up.
Nicole is undergoing wind shear and battling dry air at the moment. However analysis of the GFS wind shear forecast, and wind shear magnitude forecast values, the scenario still indicates wind shear to diminish in about 24-30 hours, to 10 kts or below, up through 72 hours in the forecast period, indicating the development of an upper level anticyclone. Based on this, and warm SST’s, I concur with the NHC in that Nicole should attain hurricane status once again. I agree with the NHC intensity forecast to a point, however she cold be under the projected strength, as it is unknown if the dry air to her West and NW may continue to affect her, or if it will be mixed out.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 10/1500Z 25.7N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 27.2N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.7N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 28.5N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.8N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 36.7N 59.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 41.2N 53.9W 70 KT 80 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
I will continue to monitor Nicole for any significant changes that may occur.
Elsewhere, based on my analysis of both the GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height anomaly maps (I will be analyzing these for continuity over the next couple of days), we may have to watch the W. Caribbean / GOMEX areas within the next 7-10 days. Analysis of both of these global models indicates a very powerful trof / cutoff low in the North Central Atlantic, which appears to be associated with Nicole, and the 500 mb deep layer trof that eventually picks her up, begins to back toward the SW, eventually causing a strong trof split in about 7-8 days. As the trof split completes, significant lowering of 500 mb pressure heights is noted. I am posting several maps, which may look the same, as to show you the process of the trof split, and more than one angle of view.
At the moment, it is not known as to whether or not a surface feature will develop and become a depression, as analyzing the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast, upper level winds do not appear forgivable for tropical development within the forecast period out to 10-14 days. But, as we all have seen, the shear pattern CAN change quickly. This is not to say however, if a surface reflection does develop, that we can’t see something possibly subtropical. As of the latest model runs, the models did not indicate a surface reflection, however given the 500 mb height departures, there could be a fairly strong 500 mb low over a portion of the W. Caribbean or in the GOMEX in about 6-7 days.
The GFS also hints at something by day 14-16 north of the Lesser Antilles. This is 2 weeks out in the period, and may not be very accurate. However, this area will have to be watched if this comes to pass, as upper level winds right now are forecast to be conducive for development near and over the Bahamas area at that time. I will be looking for run to run consistency on this pattern.
I will continue to monitor this Tue. / Wed., as well as having quick glances during my work week.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS