POST TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW / TROPICAL STORM NICOLE / POSSIBLE FUTURE GOMEX- CARIBBEAN MISCHIEF FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 09, 2016…5:15 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION:  POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW / TROPICAL STORM NICOLE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

After a couple days off to shake off the cobwebs…back in the saddle again!

Matthew made landfall Southeast of McClellanville, SC. around 11:00 a.m. Sat. morning, Oct. 08, 2016 as a Category 1 hurricane.  Matthew has since been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone, having had a cold front wrap into the SW portion of the system, and is now deemed extra-tropical. 

As of the 5:00 p.m. the NHC issued its last advisory, and the following was available on Matthew:

5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 9
Location: 35.4°N 72.0°W
Moving: ENE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb / 29.18 in
Max sustained: 75 mph

HURREVAC NHC MATTHEW TRACKING MAPS (5 DAY ERROR AND FORECAST WIND RADII)
hurrevac-matthew-error

hurrevac-matthew-wnd

MATTHEW FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Matthew should now continue to gradually weaken during the next 24-36 hours, and should become fully absorbed by the front within 48 hours, and I concur with the NHC intensity forecast.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 09/2100Z 35.4N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 10/0600Z 36.4N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1800Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

Matthew is moving to the East, and based on forecast steering layers maps, and current dynamic track guidance, I expect this motion to continue during the next 24-36 hours.  Soon thereafter, a turn toward the ENE or NE appears to be in order.  Based on this, I have no reason to disagree with the NHC forecast track on Matthew.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Nicole (once hurricane Nicole) remains almost stationary, 575 miles S. of Bermuda.

As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Nicole:

5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 9
Location: 24.2°N 65.3°W
Moving: Nearly stationary
Min pressure: 989 mb / 29.20 in
Max sustained: 65 mph

HURREVAC NHC NICOLE TRACKING MAPS (5 DAY ERROR AND FORECAST WIND RADII)
hurrevac-nicole-error

hurrevac-nicole-wnd

Satellite loop imagery indicates Nicole’s presentation has improved over the past few hours, with the LLC becoming positioned closer to the convective cloud cover.  Nicole has been under some pretty moderate northerly winds shear, but looking at the improved structure may indicate shear could be in the process of diminishing somewhat.  The latest wind shear product from CIMSS indicated northerly shear on the order of around 20-30 knots.  This flow and shear was indicated on the 12Z run of the GFS.

NICOLE FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY FROM RAMSDIS
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, and dynamic model track guidance, Nicole should begin to track on an average, slow northerly motion by Monday, and continue this general motion through to Wed., then turning more to the NNE.  This motion would bring the western side of the storm very close to the East side of Bermuda.  At the moment, I have to concur with the NHC forecast track.

Based on my analysis of the most current wind shear products, Nicole should improve in structure, slowly over the next 24 hours, while still experiencing a slow decrease in northerly shear.  In about 36 hours from 12Z forecast this a.m., wind shear is forecast to subside, and upper level winds are forecast to become favorable for strengthening…This window of favorable upper level winds should remain from the forecast period of 36-96 hours from 12Z this morning.  Based on this analysis, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast, and Nicole could once again become a hurricane.  After the 96 point, shear is once again forecast to increase, and should prevent any strengthening from that point.  It is noted however, that by this time in the period, Nicole could show some strengthening due to baroclinic processes, in which shear would actually aid the system.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
gfs_dl_shear_watl_6

gfs_dl_shear_watl_13

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 09/2100Z 24.2N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 25.0N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 26.6N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 27.2N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 28.4N 66.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 35.4N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

Residents of the Island of Bermuda should closely monitor the future progress of Nicole, and review their hurricane preparedness plans, as well as monitoring local weather service office statements.

Elsewhere, based on my analysis of both the GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height anomaly maps (I will be analyzing these for continuity over the next couple of days), we may have to watch the W. Caribbean / GOMEX areas within the next 7-10 days.  Analysis of both of these global models indicates a very powerful trof / cutoff low in the North Central Atlantic, which appears to be associated with Nicole, and the 500 mb deep layer trof that eventually picks her up, begins to back toward the SW, eventually causing a strong trof split in about 7-8 days.  By days 9-10, this low completes the trof split, and sends a large piece into the Caribbean / GOMEX area, indicating a significant lowering of pressure heights, and appears to close off a 500 mb low at the moment.  Again, the pattern of the ridge building north of the GOMEX, would support this setup…what is affectionately stated by Joe Bastardi as “the ridge over troubled water”.  This setup is not unlike what brought Matthew, Hermine, etc.  As I’ve stated before, when you have a strong enough ridge build over the NE U.S. or North of the GOMEX far enough (roughly in these invites), and conditions are favorable, you can get development, as pressures south of the ridge, naturally lower.  This is part of the PGF (Pressure Gradient Force).  Now, this is mainly for those in the weather groups I post in on Facebook…PLEASE do not bombard me with questions such as, will it become a hurricane, or where I think it’s going to go.  Those questions are moot at the moment, until we see if anything actually does develop out of the pattern.

GFS 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST
gfs_z500_sig_mex_33
gfs_z500_sig_mex_35
gfs_z500_sig_mex_38
ECMWF 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf_z500_norm_carib_33

ecmwf_z500_norm_carib_39

ecmwf_z500_norm_carib_41

I will continue to monitor everything, and intend to update M-W.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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