TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW / HURRICANE NICOLE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening. I thought I would have been able to update on Sat., however a pressing personal engagement slipped my mind having been so engrossed in trying to keep an accurate forecast on MATTHEW. I will be attending a wedding Sat. early evening. I intend to update late Sunday afternoon.
Good day everyone!
First off, my prayers are with everyone in the path or who will be affected by MATTHEW.
Second, if you were ordered to evacuate, or live in an evacuation area, or flood zone, and decided to stay….YOU MAY HAVE MADE THE WRONG DECISION!
In tonight’s quick synopsis, I see no need to hem and haw about forecast track or intensity, as we pretty much know where he is going. An analysis of the GFS and ECMWF latest runs indicate the GFS keeping the center of MATTHEW just offshore of the Canaveral area, with the ECMWF, since yesterday, still indicating a direct hit IVO the Cape Canaveral area. Regardless of the small shift in the GFS, this would not be enough to prevent the CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE POTENTIAL of this DANGEROUS HURRICANE, as the eye would have to shift almost .75 to 1.0 degrees east or 50 miles at a minimum.
As the the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory, the following information was available on MATTHEW:
8:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 6
Location: 26.4°N 78.8°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb / 27.73 in
Max sustained: 130 mph
Current satellite loop imagery indicates the eye had a brief fill, but appears now to have become more distinct. Given the proximity at the moment to FL., there may be some fluctuations in strength, albeit small. Regardless, MATTHEW is still forecast to make landfall, most likely IVO the Cape Canaveral area as a 130 mph, CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. With landfall, or even given the close proximity to FL. with in 24 hours, and with the forecast calling for increasing wind shear, MATTHEW SHOULD weaken to a CATEGORY 3 hurricane by the time it reaches the JAX area. This is based on the last forecast discussion from the NHC at 5:00 p.m.
Based on the forecast strength, and having analyzed tide data from the SLOSH model data, MATTHEW is forecast to hit at, or just after the time of high tide. The following SLOSH STORM SURGE DATA reflects the current forecast parameters. SLOSH value accuracy is plus or minus 20% of the shown probe values, depending on the actual hurricane conditions present. So basically, surge values could be 20% lower than indicated, or 20% higher than indicated.
Upon analysis of the global models, and dynamic guidance, I have no reason to disagree with the NHC forecast track Residents of GA and SC in the warning areas should rush preparations to completion. FLORIDA RESIDENTS…you should have already completed preparations, and/or evacuated.
Since we know the threat for FL, I may take tomorrow evening off, and revisit track and intensity Sat. evening. Being a one man forecast center…I’M EXHAUSTED.
PLEASE DO NOT IGNORE THE FOLLOWING LINKS….THEY MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE!
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM THE NHC:
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Boca Raton, Florida, to north of Golden Beach.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Ocean Reef, Florida, to Chokoloskee.
The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued south of Englewood to Chokoloskee.
LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
PUBLIC ADVISORY….CONTAINS HAZARD INFORMATION ON WINDS, RAINFALL, SURGE, ETC. PLEASE USE IT!
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS FROM AROUND FLORIDA…CLICK ON RADAR IMAGE
The following map will link you to up to date NWS information…click on the area desired
Again, my prayers are with everyone…GODSPEED.
Have a evening day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS