MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 06, 2016…8:25 P.M. EDT…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION:  MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW / HURRICANE NICOLE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!

CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

10/07/2016

Good evening.  I thought I would have been able to update on Sat., however a pressing personal engagement slipped my mind having been so engrossed in trying to keep an accurate forecast on MATTHEW.  I will be attending a wedding Sat. early evening.  I intend to update late Sunday afternoon.

“Storm”

Good day everyone!

First off, my prayers are with everyone in the path or who will be affected by MATTHEW.

Second, if you were ordered to evacuate, or live in an evacuation area, or flood zone, and decided to stay….YOU MAY HAVE MADE THE WRONG DECISION!

In tonight’s quick synopsis, I see no need to hem and haw about forecast track or intensity, as we pretty much know where he is going.  An analysis of the GFS and ECMWF latest runs indicate the GFS keeping the center of MATTHEW just offshore of the Canaveral area, with the ECMWF, since yesterday, still indicating a direct hit IVO the Cape Canaveral area.  Regardless of the small shift in the GFS, this would not be enough to prevent the CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE POTENTIAL of this DANGEROUS HURRICANE, as the eye would have to shift almost .75 to 1.0 degrees east or 50 miles at a minimum.

As the the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory, the following information was available on MATTHEW:

8:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 6
Location: 26.4°N 78.8°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb / 27.73 in
Max sustained: 130 mph

HURREVAC NHC MATTHEW TRACKING MAPS (5 DAY ERROR AND FORECAST WIND RADII)
hurrevac-matthew-error

hurrevac-matthew-wnd

Current satellite loop imagery indicates the eye had a brief fill, but appears now to have become more distinct.  Given the proximity at the moment to FL., there may be some fluctuations in strength, albeit small.  Regardless, MATTHEW is still forecast to make landfall, most likely IVO the Cape Canaveral area as a 130 mph, CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.  With landfall, or even given the close proximity to FL. with in 24 hours, and with the forecast calling for increasing wind shear, MATTHEW SHOULD weaken to a CATEGORY 3 hurricane by the time it reaches the JAX area.  This is based on the last forecast discussion from the NHC at 5:00 p.m.

MATTHEW RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

Based on the forecast strength, and having analyzed tide data from the SLOSH model data, MATTHEW is forecast to hit at, or just after the time of high tide.  The following SLOSH STORM SURGE DATA reflects the current forecast parameters.  SLOSH value accuracy is plus or minus 20% of the shown probe values, depending on the actual hurricane conditions present.  So basically, surge values could be 20% lower than indicated, or 20% higher than indicated.

PALM BEACH AREA
palm-beachdisplay

CANAVERAL AREA
titusvilledisplay

JAX AREA
jaxdisplay

Upon analysis of the global models, and dynamic guidance, I have no reason to disagree with the NHC forecast track  Residents of GA and SC in the warning areas should rush preparations to completion.  FLORIDA RESIDENTS…you should have already completed preparations, and/or evacuated.

Since we know the threat for FL, I may take tomorrow evening off, and revisit track and intensity Sat. evening.  Being a one man forecast center…I’M EXHAUSTED.

PLEASE DO NOT IGNORE THE FOLLOWING LINKS….THEY MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE!

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM THE NHC:

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Boca Raton, Florida, to north of Golden Beach.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Ocean Reef, Florida, to Chokoloskee.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued south of Englewood to Chokoloskee.

LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/062221.shtml

PUBLIC ADVISORY….CONTAINS HAZARD INFORMATION ON WINDS, RAINFALL, SURGE, ETC.  PLEASE USE IT!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/062354.shtml

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS FROM AROUND FLORIDA…CLICK ON RADAR IMAGE

MIAMI

amx-n0q-20161006-2349

MELBOURNEmlb-n0q-20161006-2354

JAX
jax-n0q-20161006-2353

The following map will link you to up to date NWS information…click on the area desired

NWS WARNINGS DISPLAY
us

Again, my  prayers are with everyone…GODSPEED.

Have a evening day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 06, 2016…8:25 P.M. EDT…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, well done. Get some rest! You may have to get ready again for the Matthew “Loop”!

  2. CS Zimlich says:

    Could there be a Fugiwarra (misspelled) effect between Matthew and Nichole? Thank you for all you do to keep people safe

  3. dellamom says:

    Storm, you’ve done all you can to educate and prepare the people in Matthew’s immediate track. As always, all we can do now is pray for those who didn’t heed the warnings, and be prepared to aid those who need help re-establishing their lives in the aftermath. Guard your health, my friend, because we all depend on it.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm as always. Keeping all friends and family alerted with your synopsis . Thanks always my friend!!!

  5. E.M. Lisak says:

    Thank You for all of your efforts! Take personal time, family time and recharge your batteries.

    My Best.
    Elliot

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s