TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW / TS NICOLE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Prayers still going out to those who have been hit by MATTHEW, and prayers going out to the residents of the Bahamas…GODSPEED!
Hurricane MATTHEW remains a MAJOR HURRICANE. MATTHEW is a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory, the following was available on MATTHEW:
5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 5
Location: 22.5°N 75.7°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb / 28.44 in
Max sustained: 120 mph
Current satellite loop imagery however, indicates the core of MATTHEW is out over the water, and he appears to be organizing once more, with improvement showing in core structure, and the rebuilding of the CDO as noted by the colder, red / white cloud tops in the satellite imagery.
PLEASE, DO NOT SKIP THE FOLLOWING LINKS…THEY MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE!
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM THE NHC:
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from Fernandina Beach to Savannah River.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from north of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River.
The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watches and Warnings for Cuba.
The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.
LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR COMPLETE DETAILS ON WATCHES AND WARNINGS, AND HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND (WIND, RAINFALL, STORM SURGE, etc.)
There has been no change in thinking on the upper level wind pattern or OHC. Based on my analysis of both the current wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamline pattern from both the GFS and ECMWF Operational models, and the values of OHC in the forecast path of MATTHEW, I do feel that once the hurricane’s circulation clears Cuba almost completely, that steady strengthening should occur. Albeit not shown in the forecast, the combination of forecast favorable upper level winds, high OHC, and high TPW values, I cannot totally rule out another round of R.I. (Rapid Intensification). However, this will all be based on how quickly MATTHEW can rebuild his over all structure and inner core.
Based on the premise of very favorable conditions, MATTHEW should move through the Bahamas as a DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE. The premise of MATTHEW attaining CAT 4 status through the Bahamas chain does exist, but I believe may occur closer toward the northern portion of the Island chain. The wind shear forecast and and forecast upper pattern, based on the models, indicates a very favorable environment for at least the next 48 hours, prior to wind shear increasing, and a possibility of drier air affecting the hurricane as it get closer to the FL. NE coast, due to dry air approaching from the trof to the west. By this time, Matthew should weaken to a Category storm. At the moment, I concur pretty much with the NHC intensity forecast, with the exceptions noted above.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 05/2100Z 22.5N 75.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 25.6N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 32.6N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
Based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS, MATTHEW is forecast to make landfall along the the Florida East Coast. It was noted that the 12Z dynamic guidance had had shifted back left, after a shift to the right on 06Z guidance. This has been occurring pretty much during the entire forecast period with MATTHEW. Based on 18Z guidance…a slight fluctuation was noted very slightly east once more. Re-analysis just recently of the GFS and ECMWF 12Z run, indicate MATTHEW should make landfall along the FL. East Coast, and is forecast to ride along the entire coastline, up to a point close to Southern SC. From there, the GFS and the ECMWF take the hurricane toward the east, and indicate the probability of a cyclonic loop, in which the GFS brings a weakened system back across south FL., and the ECMWF stalling it briefly, then sending him NE. It is noted in the 18Z Dynamic Guidance still favors a partial loop. Based on this lack of continuity with models, I have to concur with the NHC official forecast track, WHICH NOW INDICATES A LANDFALL around the FL. Space Coast / Melbourne area.
From the NHC discussion:
The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is still strong, and the flow pattern around this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the northwest during the next day or two with no significant change in forward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward, allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the north Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast period, models diverge considerably, with the GFS moving the cyclone southwestward toward land, and the ECMWF keeping Matthew over the Atlantic a good distance from the coast. The NHC forecast keeps Matthew over water in the middle of these two model solutions.
- Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country.
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane- force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.
4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario – the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.
END NHC DISCUSSION.
MATTHEW should remain a VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE through the Northern Bahamas. Residents of the Bahamas should be finalizing preparations, and should rush them to completion. IF there is anywhere residents of the Bahamas can find safe, sturdy shelter, or if there is any possible way for you to evacuate…I STRONGLY RECOMMEND YOU DO SO. MATTHEW at that strength could produce battering waves in excess of 20 ft, and LIFE THREATENING storm surge. PLEASE TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE!
Residents within ALL the Hurricane WATCH and WARNING areas should be completing preparations as quickly as possible, and tune in to their local NWS office and NOAA Weather Radio for statements and warnings concerning MATTHEW.
IF EVACUATION ORDERS ARE GIVEN, OR IF YOU DEFINITELY FEEL YOU MAY BE IN DANGER AT YOUR CURRENT LOCATION…EVACUATE!!!
The following are SLOSH surge values for the FL. East Coast, based on current forecast track and strength, plus or minus 20%.
This will be my last update for today, however, I will try to have a quick update tomorrow evening, after I get home from work, and can do a quick analysis.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS