MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST SYNOPSIS UPDATE…ISSUED OCT. 04, 2016…6:25 P.M. EDT…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION:  MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW / TS NICOLE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 5
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
U.S.LANDFALLS: 4

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

I have added an update from the 5:00 p.m. advisory, beginning after the satellite pictures.  I have condensed the update, in order to post the new information a little more quickly for you.  PLEASE, PAY ATTENTION TO THE LINKS!

First, my prayers go out to the residents of Haiti who have been affected by MATTHEW, and my prayers go out to those in the path, specially for the residents of the Bahamas.  I ask those who follow my site, please take a moment to pray for all of these folks!

Hurricane MATTHEW remains a MAJOR HURRICANE.   MATTHEW is a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph.  As of the 5:00 P.m. advisory, the following was available on MATTHEW:

5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 4
Location: 19.8°N 74.3°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

HURREVAC NHC MATTHEW TRACKING MAPS
hurrevac-matthew-error

hurrevac-matthew-wnd

MATTHEW FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0-lalo-matthew

rgb0-lalo-97l

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l-caribbean

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM THE NHC:

LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/042103.shtml?

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch has been extended southward to Golden Beach, Florida.

PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR COMPLETE DETAILS ON WATCHES AND WARNINGS, AND HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND (WIND, RAINFALL, STORM SURGE, etc.)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/042058.shtml?

There has been no change in thinking on the upper level wind pattern or OHC, and MATTHEW should still be a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane through the Bahamas, and I still concur at this time with the NHC intensity forecast.

One major change in the forecast is, upon analysis of the Global Models, the ECMWF 12Z run, indicates that MATTHEW COULD make a landfall along the FL. east coast.  At the moment, this may be a little overdone, but the ECMWF does indicate a stronger and larger ridge building over the NE/New England area which would allow MATTHEW to travel further west, and I CANNOT rule out this scenario at this time.  In response to this, the NHC has shifted there track a little to the left, closer to FL., which prompted a change in the Hurricane Watch being extended further south.  Exact landfall still has some uncertainty, however this hurricane now appears to be a definite threat for the U.S., unless something abruptly changes in the forecast steering pattern. For the remainder of my forecast, I have no changes with the exception of the change to track.  Everything for the Bahamas and as per my earlier forecast below, remains the same.

ECMWF 12Z RUN
ecmwf_z500_norm_watl_13

I am adding the following SLOSH model data in the event MATTHEW makes landfall along the FL. East Coast where projected by the ECMWF

SLOSH MODEL DATA for a Category 3 Hurricane moving NNW (PLUS OR MINUS 20%)
palm-beachdisplay

titusvilledisplay

TS FORCE WINDS PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LOOP)
213032

Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamline pattern, the GFS and ECMWF indicate very little change to the upper pattern, and call for a very favorable upper level environment for MATTHEW during the next 72-96 hours, with the upper level anticyclone forecast to be over the hurricane.  B y 96 hours, the upper level anticyclone becomes more asymmetric and wind shear values are forecast to increase.  This should lead to a weakening trend in MATTHEW and is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast.  I do agree with the current intensity forecast should MATTHEW maintain current structure and intensity, and I believe he will maintain the forecast intensity as he approaches the Bahamas, based on the forecast upper level pattern, and the still moderate to high OHC values, albeit somewhat of a decrease as to what the hurricane is over at the present.  Regardless, MATTHEW should remain a VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE through the Bahamas.  Residents of the Bahamas should be finalizing preparations, and should rush them to completion.  IF there is anywhere residents of the Bahamas can find safe, sturdy shelter, or if there is any possible way for you to evacuate…I STRONGLY RECOMMEND YOU DO SO.  MATTHEW at that strength could produce battering waves in excess of 20 ft, and LIFE THREATENING storm surge.  PLEASE TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE!

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 25.9N 78.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.5N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

STORMSURF MODEL OUTPUT SEA HEIGHT AND WIND VELOCITIES (CLICK FOR THE LOOP)
bahamas_sea_13

nbahaman_sea_19

bahamas_wind_13

nbahaman_wind_21

MATTHEW was moving to the N this morning.  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue for possible most of today to maybe early in the a.m., before the bend to the NW occurs.  This turn to the NW will be in response to ridging that is forecast to build briefly, north of MATTHEW over the NE/New England states, which is indicated by both the ECMWF and GFS 500 mb anomaly maps:

GFS
gfs_z500_norm_watl_13

ECMWF
ecmwf_z500_norm_watl_13

Based on analysis of the latest model runs, the ECMWF EPS models have once again shifted left, along with the GFS Ensemble guidance.  The 12Z dynamic model track guidance has once again shifted slightly to the left this morning, as compared to the 06Z guidance, with the consensus models becoming more clustered together.  Based on these parameters, I have to concur with the NHC forecast track, and based on the GFS and ECMWF being in agreement of the ridge nosing toward the U.S. and centered over the NE U.S., I CANNOT rule out a landfall somewhere along the NC Coastline, or near SC at the moment.  While the modeling appears to have steadied out somewhat, be advised some fluctuations WILL OCCUR in track as MATTHEW makes his way through the Bahamas, which could shift the center of the storm slightly either way, whether it be due to an EWRC, or slight changes or fluctuations in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere and forecast pattern.  Either way, MATTHEW does now pose a threat along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard at the moment, from the entire East Coast of FL., to the NC OBX and maybe even including the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.  Albeit MATHEW may remain offshore and skirt the U.S. Coast, and depending on how far east or west he remains, will affect what type of impact inland locations along the U.S. coastline may experience.

GFS
gfs_mslp_plev_watl_18
gfs_mslp_plev_watl_20

ECMWF
ecmwf_mslp_watl_15

ecmwf_mslp_watl_21

Residents along the U.S. East Coast should closely monitor the progress of MATTHEW, and review hurricane preparedness plans.  Given the large size of MATTHEW’S circulation, and strong winds, coastal flooding at the time of high tide could be an issue due to the onshore flow and extremely high waves offshore.  Residents are urged to monitor NOAA Weather radio, and local NWS Statements, advisories and warnings.

The following are projected storm surge values for the Bahamas (plus or minus 20%) from SLOSH MODEL DATA for a Category 3 Hurricane moving NNW or NW, depending on MATTHEWS actual path:

NNW PATH (HISTORICAL)
matthew

NW PATH (HISTORICAL)
matthewnw

NNW PATH (AVERAGED CAT 3)
matthewgeneral

NW PATH (AVERAGED CAT 3)
matthewnwgeneral

On a final note…the area of disturbed weather approaching the Windward Islands will need to be watched as it makes it way to the W. Caribbean.

A new Tropical Storm has developed and has been named NICOLE.  NICOLE was located about 525 mi NE of San Juan PR.  NICOLE is forecast to meander a bit, then head toward Bermuda.  I will not be updating on her, until MATTHEW is out of the picture

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST SYNOPSIS UPDATE…ISSUED OCT. 04, 2016…6:25 P.M. EDT…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm. Continued prayers for all in the islands who have been and will be affected by Matthew. Mac, don’t remind me of Betsy! She was our benchmark in St. Bernard Parish and the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans, at least until Katrina hit us. I saw the loop and agree it is not a happy picture, especially as it seems to hang around southern Florida and the islands for a bit. Luckily, long-term isn’t always accurate. I hope for that.

  2. Mac says:

    Storm, I just looked at the 240hr GFS loop on this page: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs/panel2&file=anim

    It appears that it’s forecasting Matthew to loop around to the East just off the Carolina coast and then back to the South and make another swing up the Florida peninsula as a weaker storm.

    Shades of Betsy in 1965!

  3. bruce malo says:

    Time to hightail it out of Cape Coral? I’m in CBS construction and feel secure, but Mom ( inland ) is in a mobile home and thinks she heard winds would exceed TS Force Winds. Tnx. Bruce

  4. ALANA2RELATE says:

    Thanks Storm. Always look forward to your synopsis and it teaches me along with research (you don’t use it you lose it I’ve had to play catch up again) how is your son? I know it’s a random question but he and my brother were going through issues around the same time and I just wish him to be better. Ok back to tropics and making preparations. We’re going to head to the Tampa area and get out of dodge here in St. Augustine/ Jacksonville area!! Blessings to all and I have prayed for Haiti and continue to do so as well as the Bahamas!! Thanks again:)

    • Thank you Alana. My oldest got in trouble with the court…I’ll leave it at that. He and a friend he was staying with got airline tickets, and flew to Washington State…so he lives out there now. Seems to be doing alright.

  5. Port Aransas BeachBum says:

    It looks like MATTHEW is moving more westward than NHC predicted and NICOLE developed a little sooner than NHC predicted. Both as Storm advised us might happen! Thanks Storm !
    Stay safe, those of you on the East Coast.

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