TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW / TS NICOLE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
I have added an update from the 5:00 p.m. advisory, beginning after the satellite pictures. I have condensed the update, in order to post the new information a little more quickly for you. PLEASE, PAY ATTENTION TO THE LINKS!
First, my prayers go out to the residents of Haiti who have been affected by MATTHEW, and my prayers go out to those in the path, specially for the residents of the Bahamas. I ask those who follow my site, please take a moment to pray for all of these folks!
Hurricane MATTHEW remains a MAJOR HURRICANE. MATTHEW is a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. As of the 5:00 P.m. advisory, the following was available on MATTHEW:
5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 4
Location: 19.8°N 74.3°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM THE NHC:
LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch has been extended southward to Golden Beach, Florida.
PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR COMPLETE DETAILS ON WATCHES AND WARNINGS, AND HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND (WIND, RAINFALL, STORM SURGE, etc.)
There has been no change in thinking on the upper level wind pattern or OHC, and MATTHEW should still be a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane through the Bahamas, and I still concur at this time with the NHC intensity forecast.
One major change in the forecast is, upon analysis of the Global Models, the ECMWF 12Z run, indicates that MATTHEW COULD make a landfall along the FL. east coast. At the moment, this may be a little overdone, but the ECMWF does indicate a stronger and larger ridge building over the NE/New England area which would allow MATTHEW to travel further west, and I CANNOT rule out this scenario at this time. In response to this, the NHC has shifted there track a little to the left, closer to FL., which prompted a change in the Hurricane Watch being extended further south. Exact landfall still has some uncertainty, however this hurricane now appears to be a definite threat for the U.S., unless something abruptly changes in the forecast steering pattern. For the remainder of my forecast, I have no changes with the exception of the change to track. Everything for the Bahamas and as per my earlier forecast below, remains the same.
I am adding the following SLOSH model data in the event MATTHEW makes landfall along the FL. East Coast where projected by the ECMWF
Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamline pattern, the GFS and ECMWF indicate very little change to the upper pattern, and call for a very favorable upper level environment for MATTHEW during the next 72-96 hours, with the upper level anticyclone forecast to be over the hurricane. B y 96 hours, the upper level anticyclone becomes more asymmetric and wind shear values are forecast to increase. This should lead to a weakening trend in MATTHEW and is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. I do agree with the current intensity forecast should MATTHEW maintain current structure and intensity, and I believe he will maintain the forecast intensity as he approaches the Bahamas, based on the forecast upper level pattern, and the still moderate to high OHC values, albeit somewhat of a decrease as to what the hurricane is over at the present. Regardless, MATTHEW should remain a VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE through the Bahamas. Residents of the Bahamas should be finalizing preparations, and should rush them to completion. IF there is anywhere residents of the Bahamas can find safe, sturdy shelter, or if there is any possible way for you to evacuate…I STRONGLY RECOMMEND YOU DO SO. MATTHEW at that strength could produce battering waves in excess of 20 ft, and LIFE THREATENING storm surge. PLEASE TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE!
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 25.9N 78.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.5N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
MATTHEW was moving to the N this morning. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue for possible most of today to maybe early in the a.m., before the bend to the NW occurs. This turn to the NW will be in response to ridging that is forecast to build briefly, north of MATTHEW over the NE/New England states, which is indicated by both the ECMWF and GFS 500 mb anomaly maps:
Based on analysis of the latest model runs, the ECMWF EPS models have once again shifted left, along with the GFS Ensemble guidance. The 12Z dynamic model track guidance has once again shifted slightly to the left this morning, as compared to the 06Z guidance, with the consensus models becoming more clustered together. Based on these parameters, I have to concur with the NHC forecast track, and based on the GFS and ECMWF being in agreement of the ridge nosing toward the U.S. and centered over the NE U.S., I CANNOT rule out a landfall somewhere along the NC Coastline, or near SC at the moment. While the modeling appears to have steadied out somewhat, be advised some fluctuations WILL OCCUR in track as MATTHEW makes his way through the Bahamas, which could shift the center of the storm slightly either way, whether it be due to an EWRC, or slight changes or fluctuations in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere and forecast pattern. Either way, MATTHEW does now pose a threat along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard at the moment, from the entire East Coast of FL., to the NC OBX and maybe even including the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Albeit MATHEW may remain offshore and skirt the U.S. Coast, and depending on how far east or west he remains, will affect what type of impact inland locations along the U.S. coastline may experience.
Residents along the U.S. East Coast should closely monitor the progress of MATTHEW, and review hurricane preparedness plans. Given the large size of MATTHEW’S circulation, and strong winds, coastal flooding at the time of high tide could be an issue due to the onshore flow and extremely high waves offshore. Residents are urged to monitor NOAA Weather radio, and local NWS Statements, advisories and warnings.
The following are projected storm surge values for the Bahamas (plus or minus 20%) from SLOSH MODEL DATA for a Category 3 Hurricane moving NNW or NW, depending on MATTHEWS actual path:
On a final note…the area of disturbed weather approaching the Windward Islands will need to be watched as it makes it way to the W. Caribbean.
A new Tropical Storm has developed and has been named NICOLE. NICOLE was located about 525 mi NE of San Juan PR. NICOLE is forecast to meander a bit, then head toward Bermuda. I will not be updating on her, until MATTHEW is out of the picture
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS