TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: INVEST 94L (80%)
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
First, for all of the people who lost their lives, and for those who lost loved ones on SEP. 11, 2001, and for those who still struggle yet today with the tragedy, and for Chris Stevens, “Rone” Woods, Sean Smith, and Glen Doherty…YOU ARE NOT FORGOTTEN…GOD BLESS YOU ALL…GOD BLESS AMERICA!!
The systems that had been designated INVEST 93L and 92L have been removed from the data base. The last model guidance was run on these at 0600Z this morning, and the ATCF BTK product was last run at 00Z.
What was left of ex-92L apparently had spun up another low level circulation a couple days ago, and did have some convection dissociated with it. However, based on my analysis of satellite loop imagery late yesterday and this afternoon, incinerates the low level circulation has been decoupled from any convection for the past 24 hours or so. Close up visible satellite lop analysis from NASA indicates this low level swirl has just recently opened up, and is not as compact as a few hours ago. Based on analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, upper level winds are unfavorable for development, and the forecast is for upper level winds to remain only somewhat marginal in about 36 hours as the remnant continues west. Based on the ragged structure, I am not expecting development of this at this time, or during the next few days. What remains of this, may have the chance to move toward the Texas area, however again, based on current analysis of forecast parameters, I do not expect development to occur. I’ll have another close look at this should any forecast conditions change significantly.
INVEST 93L, albeit dropped from the data base, still shows some decent convection over the SE Bahamas this afternoon. While observations do not indicate a low level circulation, vorticity was observed from 850 mb – 500 mb. Based on my analysis of close up satellite loop imagery, I have not detected a low level circulation, and observations from around the area indicate surface pressures still remain high.
Based on current steering and satellite motion, this area of disturbed weather is moving toward the WNW. Based on last dynamic guidance, this should begin to cords the FL. Peninsula in about 2 days. Based on both analysis of cloud motion from satellite loop imagery ahead of this area, and forecast steering maps valid for 00Z this evening, I see 2 possible scenarios with this convective area. It continues WNW and crosses the FL Peninsula approximately mid Peninsula, or comes very close to the FL. Peninsula, then makes a re-curve to the NE.
Based on the current shear forecast, I am not expecting development as it approaches FL. However, Based on the presence of convection and vorticity from 5,000 ft up to the mid levels, I am not ready to totally write this off as of yet, as should it cross FL., what may be left could enter the NE Gulf of Mexico, where albeit the upper level pattern is not forecast to be optimal, the forecast calls for wind shear to drop to 10 kts or below from 48-72 hours over the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico, not that this means development may occur, I’ just not writing it off at the moment, until such a time I can revisit conditions and forecast conditions in the next 2-3 days.
Elsewhere, INVEST 94L continues in the CATL. Based on information from the ATCF BTK product from 18Z, the following information was available:
2:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 11
Location: 17.6°N 47.4°W
Moving: NNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
Satellite imagery indicates the disturbance is not as organized as it appeared earlier today.
INVEST 94L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
The current wind shear product indicates there is still an upper level anticyclone over it, however, as we saw with 92L a few days ago, wind shear is currency impinging on the eastern periphery, which with the orientation, would explain the elongated look, and convection mainly being located NE of the center.
The system, based on the past 12 hourly information, is moving to the NNW at near 14 mph. Based on current and forecast steering, I expect this motion to continue during the next 48-60 hours, prior to turning more toward the north, then eventually to the NNE. This is depicted in the 18Z Dynamic guidance as well, which seems to be fairly clustered at the moment.
Based on the current shear forecast, upper level winds may improve briefly within the next 24 hours, before becoming more of marginal pattern, and then begin to improve by 42 hours in the period. NHC indicates this still could become a depression by Monday and has designated a HIGH (80%) probability, however if the current pattern continues, I believe this may be slower to occur. The current intensity forecast calls for INVEST 94L to become a Tropical Storm within 72 hours, based on the most accurate intensity models. I cannot rule this out at the moment, and will be monitoring this system over the next few days.
Elsewhere, the GFS, ECMWF and CMC GGEM are in good agreement of another tropical wave exiting Africa in about 5-6 days, and indicate a depression could form. I will be monitoring this as we get into that portion of the forecast period, and cannot rule out development at this time, as upper level winds are currently forecast to be favorable for slow development over the area near the Cape Verde islands during that period.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS