EAST ATLANTIC DISTURBANCE / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 07, 2016…10:00 A.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: EATL DISTURBANCE (70%)

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 8
HURRICANES: 4
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
U.S.LANDFALLS: 3

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

The NHC issued its last advisory on HERMINE yesterday evening.

INVEST 92L which I was monitoring in the Caribbean, had dissipated yesterday evening, and has been dropped from the system.  I was somewhat surprised that the system didn’t at least become better organized before it dissipated.  In fact, on the projected path, modeling had been pointing toward improving conditions toward further development  Dry air was not an issue.  TPW and OHC were very robust, and an upper level anticyclone was with the system for some time, albeit waxing and waning.  However, having gone back and re-analyzing some water vapor loop imagery, and previous wind shear items, I have concluded that ex 92L was in too close proximity of an upper level low that was to the west of the system.  This, combined With a TUTT, kept a constant 25-30 kts of SW wind shear, just on the west side of the system.  Although shear was not located directly over the Invest, the zone was close enough to impinge on the western portion of the heaviest convection, which in turn, exposed the LLC.  The rotation you see over Hispaniola this morning, is the remnant mid level circulation and convection of ex-92L.  In a nutshell, what basically happened, is the system in effect became tilted, exposing the LLC.  This allowed for moisture and heat energy to be spread out over the area, not allowing for it to be focused over the system.  Without this heat energy and moisture to hold onto, the system dissipated.  A ULL is noted backing away over the GOMEX, and as it backs away to the SW, upper level conditions should improve over the Caribbean.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l-watl

rgb-lwatl

wv-lwatl

While I am not concerned with the mid level convection, I will be curious as to see what becomes of it, as it moves toward the WNW over the next few days.

Elsewhere, I am still monitoring 2 areas in the CATL…ONE NEAR 15.0N;52.0W and the other near 7.0N and from 45-40W.  The area further south I am not too concerned with, as it is moving toward the west, and should run into South America in a few days.  The area near 15N, while I am not expecting development, I will be looking at down the road as it could enter the Bahamas.  At the moment, forecast conditions in that area in about 5 days are not favorable for development.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lcatl

Elsewhere, a rather large circulation is located just to the south of the Cabo Verde islands.  This wave continues to  move very slowly at the moment, toward the WNW, due to the westerly flow in the steering, and a weakness in the ridge to its north.

RAMSDIS METEOSAT LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

Based on my analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, I expect a WNW motion to continue during the next 48 hours, but the steering suggests maybe more of a bend toward the west by 72 hours as the subtropical ridge builds back north of it, but still maintaining a general WNW (280 deg?).  Based on the current wind shear product, shear and upper level winds indicate the wave is under favorable conditions for slow development. Based on current track thinking, the upper level environment becomes more conducive in about 4-5 days, where the disturbance should be located.  From around 48 hours out, upper level winds could become somewhat less favorable, up until the 4-5 day mark (96-120 hours).  Based on these parameters, I do believe we should see some slow development during the next 5 days.  As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC has designated a HIGH (70%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

I know it seems rather quiet for this time of the season, when the climatological peak is in 3 days.  There is still some subsidence noted over the Atlantic.  I believe the main factor in this is the once again, strong subtropical ridge.  Vertical instability in the Atlantic however, is just near climatology.  The ridge is expected to weaken over the next few days, which should allow for greater instability over the Atlantic.  Are we done?  Well, it doesn’t look like Africa is finished yet, as both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement of another development off the coast of Africa in approximately 9-10 days.  Upper level winds are forecast to be favorable at that time, however being in the medium range, this scenario can change.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY
ts_al_tat_thdv
GFS / ECMWF 9-10 DAY FORECAST
gfs_mslp_plev_atlantic_41

gfs_mslp_plev_capeverde_45

gfs_mslp_plev_capeverde_55

ecmwf_mslp_atlantic_40Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to EAST ATLANTIC DISTURBANCE / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 07, 2016…10:00 A.M. EDT

  1. PortA Beach Bum says:

    Having trouble posting. Must be my browser.

  2. I have had a lot of trouble posting to Storm’s site lately. Trying a different computer.
    Storm – I sure hope to get your input on the “Disturbance 3” that popped up yesterday in the Florida Straits and today (9 Sept.) has earned an “orange X” by the NHC. I hate it when things get too close to the GOM!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm! Hey Debi D. What R U pointing out? 🙂

  4. Debi Dantoni says:

    Thanks again Thomas On Sep 7, 2016 9:05 AM, “WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER” wrote:

    > palmharborforecastcenter posted: “TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: EATL > DISTURBANCE (70%) Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the > National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or > National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my > analysis, ” >

  5. Thanks Storm,
    I find it comforting that you seem to be able to stay at least 1/2 step ahead of the “Big Boys.” Here you’re telling us yesterday what they’re just getting around to today!

  6. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm

  7. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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