TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: HURRICANE GASTON / T.S. HERMINE /T.D. 8 /
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
Tropical Storm HERMINE continues to become better organized in the GOMEX.
As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT intermediate advisory, the following was available on HERMINE:
7:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 25.5°N 87.4°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb / 29.56 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
Having analyzed satellite loop imagery most of the afternoon, the satellite presentation of the storm has improved greatly over the past few hours. Banding has developed, with a very large band in the northern portion of the storm. Cloud tops are cooling, and a CDO (Central Dense Overcast) is now evident. There is also evidence of hot towers over and near the center.These phenomenon indicate a strengthening system. In fact, current maximum sustained winds found by Hurricane Hunter aircraft are a 50 mph.
Based on my analysis of current and forecast wind shear, the upper level environment should remain generally favorable until HERMINE makes landfall. The updated runs of both the GFS and ECMWF pretty much keep an upper level anticyclonic over the system.
The recent upper level wind product from CIMSS still indicates a decent outflow pattern, and is evident by the fanning out of the upper level cloud deck and banding features. You’ll note the center is just east of the forecast points.
The cyclone is over SST’s of 30C (86F), and these SST’s are prevalent in the path.
At the moment, I am not calling for R.I. (Rapid Intensification) as the current OHC is too low. Once the system gets closer to the Big Bend area, the OCH becomes more favorable, and this may allow (if the upper pattern holds) for HERMINE to become a Category ONE Hurricane prior to landfall. This notion, is backed up in the 5:00 p.m. NHC forecast discussion, which I had not read earlier today.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 5:00 P.M.
INIT 31/2100Z 25.5N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.5N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 28.1N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 30.0N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 32.0N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
72H 03/1800Z 36.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1800Z 39.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Watches and Warnings are still in effect, and may be accessed through the local statements link I will post. A summary of watches and warnings is in the following public advisory link, and also lists the hazards expected…PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY.
NHC ADVISORY LINK
NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS LINKS
Here are the terms you should know:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. During a Watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case warnings are issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH:
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post- tropical cyclone. During a Watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuations in case warnings are issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials.
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING:
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
The report is that the storm is moving to the NNE. However, in analysis of satellite loop imagery, it was noted the center may have reformed a little further east. If this is the case, this would place the storm a little closer to the coast, and more to the right of the forecast track, but it will remain to be seen. The 00Z Dynamic models did shift slightly south in track, but not by much, and are very well clustered. Having analyzed numerous close up satellite loop images, noting the flow coming around Cuba, the way the storm is oriented, and the motion of the clouds ahead of the storm near the Florida east coast, it wouldn’t surprise me if the storm started to move NE sometime early morning. However this is my speculation and not in the offical forecast.
In any event, residents along the west Florida cast within the watch and warning areas, and along the portion of the FL. east coast/ Ga coast should make preparations. Links to preparedness guides are on the right side of this page, under the heading LINKS.
The following map is linked…click on your area for up to date NWS Statements, Advisories, and Warnings
NWS DOPPLER RADAR SEUS LINK
This will be my final update until Sunday.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS