TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO…ISSUED AUG. 31, 2016…4:05 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: HURRICANE GASTON / T.S. HERMINE /T.D. 8

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 8
HURRICANES: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

THE FOLLOWING IS A QUICK UPDATE:

I am analyzing things to put in the 5:00 p.m. update.  However, T.D. 9 was found to have TS force winds, and has been designated Tropical Storm Hermine.  As of 2:00 p.m. EDT on the intermediate advisory, the following information was available on HERMINE:

1:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 24.7°N 88.0°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in
Max sustained: 40 mph

HERMINE RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

HURREVAC NHC TRACK, WIND RADIUS AND SURGE MAPS
HURREVAC.HERMINE.ERROR

HURREVAC.MERMINE.RADIUS

HURREVAC.HERMINE.SURGE

Dynamic model guidance has once again shifted slightly left, or to the west, which would now bring Landfall to Apalachicola.  This may fluctuate, depending on how strong the storm becomes over the next 12-24 hours.  The storm is beginning to move north in response to a weakness in the ridge over the Carolinas/GA area, and in response to a trof far north, digging down over the NW Great Lakes region.  The shift left appears to be in response to the weakening ridge over the central plains area which has been moving slowly,  This combination is making the storm move very slow northward, in very weak steering currents.  There however is no change in the forecast track thinking of this eventually turning NNE and NE within the next 24 hours.  Analysis of updated steering forecast maps did not indicate any change as of yet to the overall steering pattern.

ATCF 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
TD9. 18Z DYNAMIC

The forecast is still for HERMINE to strengthen further prior to landfall.  The updated GFS and ECMWF models still indicate an upper level anticyclone, which favors strengthening, to remain over HERMINE until landfall.

Given the shift left in guidance, I do not know at this time if the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch areas will be changed as far as being moved further north away from the Anclote river area.  This will have to be seen in the NHC 5:00 P.M. update.

I will try to have this information available tonight.

“Storm”

Good day everyone!

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING and HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.  Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. During a Watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case warnings are issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Watch will sometimes include conditions where 74 mph + winds may not be experienced, however strong enough to push in storm surge, very heavy rainfall, storm  and high wind gusts.  In the situation with Tropical Depression NINE, a Hurricane Watch has been issued as the slim possibility does exist that the depression could attain hurricane status briefly and close to landfall.

As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT intermediate advisory form the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Depression NINE:

7:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 24.6°N 88.1°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb / 29.56 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

NHC TRACKING MAPS FROM HURREVAC.
HURREVAC.TD9.ERROR

HURREVAC.TD9.RADIUS

HURREVAC.TD9.SURGE

Recent satellite loop imagery indicates that the depression continues to become slightly better organized, with convection beginning to build nicely over the Low Level Circulation (LLC).  The central pressure has fallen to 1001 mb…down from 1004 mb from 3 hours ago.  This may indicate the depression could very well be close to Tropical Storm status.

TD9 RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2

I have no change in my thinking in forecast intensity, and the depression should become a Tropical Storm soon.  I do concur with the NHC, and we should see more of a steady strengthening as this begins to move off toward the NE.  I agree currently with the NHC intensity forecast, however, based on a couple of items per my analysis this morning, I cannot fully rule out the possibility of a stronger Tropical Storm, or a very breif run for minimal CAT 1 hurricane just very prior to landfall.  The depression is currently under some fairly favorable conditions, save some slight wind shear north of it.  The recent upper level wind product indicates an excellent outflow pattern over the system.  The depression has plenty of TPW to work with, so as it nears the peninsula of Florida, it will drag in a lot of moisture from the GOMEX, hence heavy rainfall.  Last, it will be moving over some higher Ocean Heat Content (OHC) as it nears the Big Bend region.  If the upper pattern remains favorable, these conditions could allow for a minimal CAT1 hurricane very close to the coast before making landfall.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 24.5N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 25.4N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 26.9N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 28.4N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 30.3N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 03/0600Z 34.2N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 04/0600Z 37.0N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

CIMSS CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS
tccaptureuppper.TD9

CIMSS TD 9 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
tccaptureTPW.TD9

CIMSS OHC
tccaptureOHC.TD9

The depression has slowed in forward speed, and is almost stalled.  This is usually a good sign that the track may begin to change soon.  I have no change in the forecast track logic, and the system should begin to move more toward the NNE or NE sometime later today.  Current and forecast steering indicate what I have been preaching over the past 3 days….the ridge that was situated over the Mid Atlantic states 3-4 days ago, has shifted west and weakened, and a weakness in the sup-tropical ridge is now present near the Carolinas (you’ll note that weakness creating an upward bend in the steering over the depression).  Forecast steering still indicates the combination of a trof coming down from the north, and the western periphery of the western subtropical ridge center, should become the dominant flow probably by late this evening into tomorrow, and is reflected in the NHC forecast track and dynamic model guidance.  Based on this, if nothing changes, the west side of the system should just brush the Apalachicola area and should make landfall between Crawfordville and Perry.

06Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
TD9. 06Z DYNAMIC
CURRENT STEERING LAYER
wg8dlm2

Albeit the possibility of residents south of the Big Bend area, outside of the wind radius may not experience hurricane force winds, the NHC and NWS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH and TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

Residents along the Florida west coast within the watch and warning areas should be making preparations, per your local NWS office.  On the right side of this page, under LINKS, I have links for various preparedness guides.

The main threat from this system appears to be excessive amounts of rain, and the potential for flooding and flash flooding, as well as isolated tornadoes.

NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM TAMPA
TBW.N0Q.20160831.1328

The following graphics represent the potential hazards from this system

105135.NINE

72 RAINFALL ESTIMATE
TD9.WPCQPF_sm

TD 9.WW_sm

NOAA WPC 5 DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
p120i

Residents should monitor their local NWS office for statements and/or warnings associated with this system.  Residents along the coast should remain away from beaches and out of the water due to the possibility of minor coastal flooding and rip currents.

The following are links to local NWS STATEMENTS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KTBW.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KJAX.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KTAE.shtml

The following map is linked for you to click on your area of interest.  It will take you to your local NWS office for updated statements and warnings.

NWS WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

PLEASE BE SMART…PLEASE BE SAFE!

I may have another update late this afternoon/early evening.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO…ISSUED AUG. 31, 2016…4:05 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    I would hate to be on a ship in the Atlantic for the next little bit. It’s like playing dodge ball with storms.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Prayers for Florida and the Atlantic coast through the Carolinas on this one.

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