TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: HURRICANE GASTON / T.D. 8 / T.D 9 / INVEST 92L (40%)
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
This is an URGENT UPDATE:
At approximately 6:30 -6:50 P.M…A Tropical storm WATCH and Hurricane WATCH were issued for a portion of the Florida West Coast. The Hurricane Watch extends as far south to the Anclote River, which is about 1/4 mile from my residence in Tarpon Springs FL. A Hurricane Watch means the following:
HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. During a Watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuation in case warnings are issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. During a Watch, prepare your home and review your plan for evacuations in case warnings are issued. Listen closely to instructions from local officials.
The following graphic is from the NHC displaying the watches:
A Hurricane Watch will sometimes include conditions where 74 mph + winds may not be experienced, however strong enough to push in storm surge. Hurricane like conditions may be experienced even though winds do not meet the criteria such as very heavy rainfall, storm surge, and high wind gusts.
The following are local NWS Statements regarding this system:
LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS
The following map is linked…PLEASE click on your area, or area of interest for up to date NWS information.
As far as the Depression, the NHC indicates it should become a Tropical Storm sometime tonight.
Given the weak steering currents, the depression had the chance to drift somewhat further west during the day, and now is moving toward the NW according to the latest information form the NHC. This has caused a slight shift west in track, which caused the official track to be adjusted slightly north…to the northern Big Bend area.
Regardless, strong winds and heavy precipitation are forecast which will likely cause local flooding and some flash flooding in the watch areas.
As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT intermediate advisory, the following was available on T.D. 9:
7:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 30
Location: 24.2°N 87.7°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Recent satellite loop imagery seems to indicate the low level center may have drifted SW somewhat, and may now be under the mid level circulation.
Wind shear has decreased and the recent upper level wind product from CIMSS indicates well established outflow around the system.
Given these new occurrences, I concur with the NHC, and a Tropical Storm may be developing as I type this. The NHC has increased the intensity forecast slightly, given these improved conditions, with maximum sustained winds of 65 to possibly 70 mph forecast at landfall near and to the right of the center.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 30/2100Z 24.4N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Albeit the worst conditions of this system will be experienced in the Big Bend region, watches have been issued, and it is recommended that residents along the Florida west coast within the watch areas begin preparations.
The following graphics project estimated total rainfall for the next 72 hours, wind speed probabilities, and storm surge probabilities for surge values of one, two and three ft respectively.
The following link is a preparedness guide from NOAA and the Red Cross.
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS GUIDES
I will have another update on this system sometime tomorrow.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS