TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 10, 2016…4:20 P.M. EDT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 5
HURRICANES: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

The NHC has put the area of disturbed weather over the extreme northern GOMEX, back in the Tropical Weather Outlook. For what reason, I do not understand, as they have designated a ZERO percent probability of develop.  Satellite loop imagery shows a broad area of low pressure.  Based on land reports I presume, which would agree with satellite imagery, the actual low center has emerged slightly out into the GOMEX, just along the coastal area of Mobile AL.  Analysis of the CIMSS wind shear product did indicate an upper level anticyclone, inland over the area, which place the majority of this system under unfavorable upper level conditions.  Analysis of the upper level wind product, wind shear, and vorticity products, indicate the system is tilted from the mid levels, upward.  Based on this, and proximity of the center to land, I am not expecting any further development of this area.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lgomex

rgb-lGOMEX

Residents along the Gulf Coast states however, need to monitor this for excessive rainfall and flooding potentials.  The following is the current WPC QPF for the next 5 days.

WPC QPF 5 DAY FORECAST
p120i

Please use the NWS WARNINGS and ADVISORY map for information pertinent to your area.  Just click on your area, or area that interests you.

NWS WARNING AND ADVISORIES DISPLAY
US

NWS DOPPLER RADAR (click for MS VALLEY LOOP)
ridge_sitemap

Elsewhere, the tropical feature that has been in the W. Atlantic, north of the Bahamas for the past few days, appears to be loosing steam.  Upper level winds are currently non conducive for development, and are forecast to remain pretty much as such during the next 48-72 hours.  By this time, I expect the area to be over the FL/GA area, or central to northern FL east coast.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP
avn-leastus

Just to mention once again about steering currents…a few days previous regarding this area, the forecast steering maps indicated either a re-curve, or possible land effect along the Tidewater region.  As days passed, it was noted by this forecaster, and mentioned a couple days ago that there were now 2 scenarios, based on forward speed of the area mentioned…if it was quicker in moving, then more of a northerly path would occur…if it remained at its speed at the time, or slowed, a more WNW path would occur…well, the subtropical ridge western center is now butted up against Tidewater area, producing more of a westerly flow over the system.  Current configuration may allow for a last minute, brief NW motion, however satellite loop imagery indicates a more west orientation of steering.  The reason I mention this is, when this feature was out in the EATL/CATL, a lot of folks were calling for “fish”, which is an affectionate term we use for a re-curving system.  This could have occurred, but was not cast in stone.  As I ALWAYS caution about steering in that it can change quickly sometimes (not usually the norm however), this system is indicative of why WE MUST revisit forecast steering currents and model trends frequently.

Elsewhere, another large Tropical Wave should exit the African continent in around 12-24 hours.  Satellite imagery shows that convection and thunderstorms are minimal at the moment, most likely due to the passage of some African dust as of yesterday.

METEOSAT LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lmeteosat

The only model hinting at possible development right now, which may be this wave, or possibly another in a few days, is the ECMWF, giving a moderate percentage for a Tropical Depression, and low percentage of a Tropical Storm.

ECMWF TCFP
eps_tcprob_20_atlantic_3
eps_tcprob_34_atlantic_4

The NOAA TCFP (Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability) site seems to indicate a moderate probability as well. Looking at this, it appears to be the most bullish probability of this season.

NOAA TCFP 24 -48 HOUR
al_rTCFP_048
Again, we still have the negatives of a strong subtropical ridge, and positive velocity potential anomalies at the 200 mb level, which promotes sinking air.  African dust is still forecast to be somewhat of a part of the forecast, however there appears to be more breaks in between outbreaks, especially one noted around the time period of the TCFP forecast (48 hours).  However, there is agreement with all the global models, with the NASA MSLP forecast, indicating the subtropical ridge to push south and west during the next 5 days, and become much weaker through day 10 of the forecast period.  This could allow for an increase in activity.  Graphics are within the 5-6 day forecast period.

NASA MSLP FORECAST
nasa_mslp_atlantic_25
GFS MSLP ANOMALY
gfs_mslp_sig_catl_25
NASA DUST FORECAST 3 AND 7 DAY
nasa_dust_tropatl_13

nasa_dust_atlantic_29
The TPW forecast still indicates a high amount of precipitable water for this wave coming off Africa to work with, and a break is noted currently in the SAL product from CIMSS.

CIMSS SAL PRODUCT
splitE

TPW FORECAST DAY 3 AND 7
nasa_pwat_atlantic_13
nasa_pwat_atlantic_29
TPW SCALE
0.50 inches or less = very low moisture content
0.50 to 1.25 inches = low moisture content
1.25 to 1.75 inches = moderate moisture content
1.75 to 2.00 inches = high moisture content
2.00 inches or above = very high moisture content

Also, noted in satellite loop imagery, there appears to be an expansion of water vapor surrounding this wave, and may be pushing some of the dust out of the way.

METEOSAT WV LOOP
wv-lmeteosat

Analysis of the current and forecast wind shear products indicates some easterly shear,so conditions will not be optimal as this enters the E. Atlantic.  This wave may have a better chance, once it can pass 30-40W, where the flow currently becomes more diffluent, and easterly shear relaxes.  Based on my analyses, this could have some slightly better conditions for development, although development at the moment is not guaranteed, but it will be something to be watched.

The ECMWF is calling for development over the Cape Verde islands in 10 days.  The 12Z run indicates a stronger surface low than the 00Z run.  The GFS is a little coy, but does indicate a slight 500 mb pressure drop during the same time and location.  The GFS however is interested a little more in the GOMEX and Caribbean earlier in the time period of about 2 days.

ECMWF 10 DAY MSLP
ecm_mslp_afr_11
GFS
gfs_z500_sig_mex_13
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 10, 2016…4:20 P.M. EDT.

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Always on top of it. Looks like that Low moves West. Good…we need it in Houston. You guy’s definitely need a break.

  2. Donchampo says:

    Close to a foot of rain here in the last 18 hours. Lots of local flooding. More rain on the way. Not good

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Thankyou mr storm you are very smart metorogist.Mr storm you have clear a lot up on the steering pattern I want to thankyou for showing me we are very grateful to have you.

  4. dellamom says:

    There is a lot to watch, Storm. Thankfully we have you to interpret it all for us.

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