TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
The NHC has put the area of disturbed weather over the extreme northern GOMEX, back in the Tropical Weather Outlook. For what reason, I do not understand, as they have designated a ZERO percent probability of develop. Satellite loop imagery shows a broad area of low pressure. Based on land reports I presume, which would agree with satellite imagery, the actual low center has emerged slightly out into the GOMEX, just along the coastal area of Mobile AL. Analysis of the CIMSS wind shear product did indicate an upper level anticyclone, inland over the area, which place the majority of this system under unfavorable upper level conditions. Analysis of the upper level wind product, wind shear, and vorticity products, indicate the system is tilted from the mid levels, upward. Based on this, and proximity of the center to land, I am not expecting any further development of this area.
Residents along the Gulf Coast states however, need to monitor this for excessive rainfall and flooding potentials. The following is the current WPC QPF for the next 5 days.
Please use the NWS WARNINGS and ADVISORY map for information pertinent to your area. Just click on your area, or area that interests you.
Elsewhere, the tropical feature that has been in the W. Atlantic, north of the Bahamas for the past few days, appears to be loosing steam. Upper level winds are currently non conducive for development, and are forecast to remain pretty much as such during the next 48-72 hours. By this time, I expect the area to be over the FL/GA area, or central to northern FL east coast.
Just to mention once again about steering currents…a few days previous regarding this area, the forecast steering maps indicated either a re-curve, or possible land effect along the Tidewater region. As days passed, it was noted by this forecaster, and mentioned a couple days ago that there were now 2 scenarios, based on forward speed of the area mentioned…if it was quicker in moving, then more of a northerly path would occur…if it remained at its speed at the time, or slowed, a more WNW path would occur…well, the subtropical ridge western center is now butted up against Tidewater area, producing more of a westerly flow over the system. Current configuration may allow for a last minute, brief NW motion, however satellite loop imagery indicates a more west orientation of steering. The reason I mention this is, when this feature was out in the EATL/CATL, a lot of folks were calling for “fish”, which is an affectionate term we use for a re-curving system. This could have occurred, but was not cast in stone. As I ALWAYS caution about steering in that it can change quickly sometimes (not usually the norm however), this system is indicative of why WE MUST revisit forecast steering currents and model trends frequently.
Elsewhere, another large Tropical Wave should exit the African continent in around 12-24 hours. Satellite imagery shows that convection and thunderstorms are minimal at the moment, most likely due to the passage of some African dust as of yesterday.
The only model hinting at possible development right now, which may be this wave, or possibly another in a few days, is the ECMWF, giving a moderate percentage for a Tropical Depression, and low percentage of a Tropical Storm.
The NOAA TCFP (Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability) site seems to indicate a moderate probability as well. Looking at this, it appears to be the most bullish probability of this season.
NOAA TCFP 24 -48 HOUR
Again, we still have the negatives of a strong subtropical ridge, and positive velocity potential anomalies at the 200 mb level, which promotes sinking air. African dust is still forecast to be somewhat of a part of the forecast, however there appears to be more breaks in between outbreaks, especially one noted around the time period of the TCFP forecast (48 hours). However, there is agreement with all the global models, with the NASA MSLP forecast, indicating the subtropical ridge to push south and west during the next 5 days, and become much weaker through day 10 of the forecast period. This could allow for an increase in activity. Graphics are within the 5-6 day forecast period.
TPW FORECAST DAY 3 AND 7
0.50 inches or less = very low moisture content
0.50 to 1.25 inches = low moisture content
1.25 to 1.75 inches = moderate moisture content
1.75 to 2.00 inches = high moisture content
2.00 inches or above = very high moisture content
Also, noted in satellite loop imagery, there appears to be an expansion of water vapor surrounding this wave, and may be pushing some of the dust out of the way.
Analysis of the current and forecast wind shear products indicates some easterly shear,so conditions will not be optimal as this enters the E. Atlantic. This wave may have a better chance, once it can pass 30-40W, where the flow currently becomes more diffluent, and easterly shear relaxes. Based on my analyses, this could have some slightly better conditions for development, although development at the moment is not guaranteed, but it will be something to be watched.
The ECMWF is calling for development over the Cape Verde islands in 10 days. The 12Z run indicates a stronger surface low than the 00Z run. The GFS is a little coy, but does indicate a slight 500 mb pressure drop during the same time and location. The GFS however is interested a little more in the GOMEX and Caribbean earlier in the time period of about 2 days.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS