TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING GOMEX, BAHAMAS
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
As mentioned in my last 2 forecasts, I discussed the probability of a low in the extreme NE GOMEX, initiated by a trof split,which was depicted in the 2 lead global models…ECMWF and GFS. I am currently monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the extreme NE GOMEX, located south of the Apalachicola area, and SW of the Big Bend region. The NHC designated the probabilities of development 2 days ago I believe, and have designated a LOW (20%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.
Analysis of current satellite loop imagery shows the disturbed weather moving slowly toward the SSE. Steering currents are not strong at the moment, so I expect a slow motion to continue for the night.
Albeit this area appears to be better organized on satellite imagery, this is mainly in the mid level clouds. Buoy data from buoy station 42036, 112 NM WNW of Tampa, FL. has indicate a surface pressure drop of -0.06 in the past 5 hours. Vorticity maps indicate decent 850 mb vorticity, but very near the coast.
Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates shear is only around 10-15 knots over the area, however the flow is not optimal, and only displaying a diffluent flow at the moment. There is however, a semi-outflow channel, limited to the east, based on upper level winds.
The current wind shear forecast map from the GFS indicates zonal shear may be at a minimum over the next 18-24 hours. The flow is forecast to remain pretty much in a diffluent pattern. Given this, conditions may be slightly better than marginal, and the slim probability exists that a depression may try to develop. However given proximity to land, and forecast motion over the next 24 hours, it may be just that, a SLIM probability. Should a LLC begin to develop further from land, the probability could increase. For the moment, I concur with the NHC probability in the GTWO.
Regardless of development, current precipitation forecast maps indicate some serous rainfall associated with this disturbance. Some areas which may be in the path could receive in excess of 12+ inches of rainfall. Residence of the FL. Peninsula and over the Gulf Coast States to MS, should monitor the progress of this, for the possibility of flooding and flash flooding in some areas.
Based on my analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, I expect this disturbance to continue on its current motion for approximately the next 18-24 hours, before changing to a more westerly direction. Shortly thereafter, the forecast steering pattern may take this area over me, but my thought is it could cross between 28.5 – 29.5N. As this moves over the FL. Peninsula, I expect it to begin to head more toward the north, in effect performing a semi-cyclonic loop, which may carry it back over the AL/MS area. I will be monitoring and re-visiting the steering pattern, and forecast steering pattern often over the next 48 hours, especially tomorrow, in case any unforeseen changes occur. However this is my current thought based on what I had analyzed this evening.
Elsewhere, I am also monitoring an area of disturbed weather just NE of Hispaniola. Cloudiness and showers have increased slightly over the past few hours, and is embedded in an area of high TPW (not much unlike what we saw with Earl). Upper level winds are not conducive at the moment, due to the close proximity of an upper level low. However, as this disturbed weather moves toward the NW, the upper level low should back away. This is shown in the wind shear forecast map, and upper level winds are currently forecast to become more conducive in about the next 24-36 hours. This could allow for some slow development to occur, or at least some better organization. NHC has designated a LOW (20%) of cyclone formation over the next 5 days.
TPW LOOP IMAGERY
This area of weather is moving toward the NW, and I expect this to continue for the next 24-30 hours, before more of a northerly component occurs. This area will most likely head to the NE soon thereafter, however based on forecast steering and previous run of the ECMWF, this may come further west and closer to the U.S. at approx. 75W as it begins to move northward, as the center of the sub-tropical ridge is forecast to move westward over the next 4-5 days. I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS