TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: EARL; MONITORING EATL
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Earlier today, Tropical Disturbance INVEST 97L was found to have a closed surface circulation, and was designated Tropical Storm EARL at noon time. As of the 2:00 p.m. intermediate advisory, the following information was available on Tropical Storm EARL:
2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 2
Location: 16.3°N 80.8°W
Moving: W at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
Satellite loop imagery from this morning, indicated EARL was not nearly as organized, showing less deep convection. Upon my analysis of satellite imagery, it was noted the LLC was slightly exposed to the WNW of the deep convection, and vorticity maps indicated a tilted system toward the ENE. This may have been caused by 2 things…the orientation of the upper level anticyclone was such, that some westerly shear was impinging on the system, and the surface flow being somewhat faster than mid level, allowing for a slight de-copulation of the center. Recent satellite loop imagery however, indicates EARL is a little better organized than a few hours ago with the LLC just coming back under the recent convective burst. Analysis of the most recent shear product from CIMSS indicates the upper level anti-cyclone has become situated closer to the center of the cyclone, allowing for a reduction in shear. This upper feature is still forecast to remain with EARL through the forecast period. Shear is forecast to relax to around 7-10 knots within the next 12-18 hours, and EARL is expected to slow in forward speed during the next 12 hours as the steering flow weakens somewhat, which is currently shown in the forecast steering layers maps.
EARL is still in an environment where TPW is excellent, so moisture shouldn’t be a problem.
Based on this analysis, EARL should begin to strengthen at a little faster pace within the next 12+ hours, prior to making landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula near Belize. Current NHC intensity forecast brings EARL up to 65 MPH in the 12:00 p.m. forecast discussion, and NHC states EARL could be close to hurricane strength just near landfall. Albeit, intensity guidance keeps EARL at T.S. strength. Based on conditions being forecast to improve, should EARL in fact slow his forward speed, the possibility of EARL becoming a minimal hurricane cannot be fully ruled out at this time. After EARL makes landfall, if the center emerges far enough north in the BOC, the storm could attain T.S. strength once again, for a very brief time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1600Z 16.3N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
EARL is currently being steered to the west on the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge which extends west to Bahamas, with another center located over the Gulf coast, over TX and LA. Analysis of forecast steering maps indicate this pattern to remain pretty much Status Quo for the next 4-6 days from 12Z this morning. Based on cloud motion analysis and forecast steering analysis, I expect EARL to continue to the west for the next 18-24 hours, with more of a motion resembling WNW thereafter, with EARL emerging into the extreme southern BOC, very close to the coast of Mexico. This is depicted in the 18Z DYNAMIC/CONSENSUS modeling, and is also shown in the GFS and ECMWF EPS modeling (not displayed). Based on this, I concur with the NHC forecast track at the moment.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO, SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER * CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO, SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
Elsewhere, I am monitoring the wave that came off Africa recently. Satellite loop imagery indicated a small, but strong area of consolidated convection with this feature. Analysis of visible satellite loop images indicates a definite circulation, however this may be in the mid levels, as vorticity maps do not show any consolidation of vorticity at 850 mb.
Upper level winds are currently non conducive, however the current wind shear forecast indicates shear may relax during the next 42-48 hours, and conditions could become a little more favorable for slow development of this wave.
NOAA TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY
MIMIC TPW loop imagery indicates excellent TPW for this wave to work with, similar to what we saw with EARL a couple of days ago. A surge of moisture is just in front of this wave as noted in the TPW loop imagery.
This wave is moving toward the west, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 72 hours, and will be monitored for slow development.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS