TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING EATL
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather associated with a mid-upper level low and surface trof, has moved over LA and portions of TX. Even if this had remained over the Gulf for a brief period, I do not believe it would have developed given the proximity of another upper low, creating NELY wind shear over the area.
The majority of the Atlantic basin is quiet, so I’m not going to take up space with an unnecessary image.
The extreme eastern Atlantic is coming somewhat awake. A tropical wave is noted near 12.5N;23.0W…just about due south of the Cape Verde islands. Information contained in the 12Z NHC TAFB Surface Analysis report that the associated low is no longer at the surface, but is present at 700 mb. Albeit this wave has limited convection at the moment, it appears to be the best organized wave we’ve seen, regarding the 700 mb level, with very notable counterclockwise circulation in the wind field, based on METEOSAT satellite loop imagery. Analysis of upper level winds indicated a diffluent flow over the wave at the moment, aiding in some divergence aloft.
Between water vapor loop imagery, and the EUMETSAT dust channel, it appears the SAL has diminished even further, albeit still the slow process.
The wave is moving in a general WNW direction at the moment, at 10 kts. Based on current forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 48-72 hours, and gaining some latitude during this period, as a break/weakness in the subtropical ridge is forecast to exist from 55W to 60W. At around 72 hours or so, I expect a more westerly component (still WNW but not as sharp) as the ridge moves west, shifting the weakness much further west IVO the northern Bahamas/eastern Seaboard.
Upper level winds could become a little more conducive, as upon analyzing the current shear forecast, and estimating where the location of this wave could be, if it survives, puts it in an area where wind shear becomes light.
I will continue to monitor the progress of this feature to see if it does in fact hold together, and/or begins to develop a closed surface circulation.
Another decent looking wave is over the African continent at the moment (noted in the METEOSAT 14KM VIS/IR2 Channel above), and we’ll have to see what happens when it hits the wet stuff.
Analysis of the global models indicates the models sniffing out weak low pressure west of the Cape Verde islands, anywhere from 5- 7 days out. In fact, the CMC GGEM tracks a wave from the Atlantic, and brings it to the OBX as a strong Tropical Storm by 216 hours in the forecast period. The model may be picking out this particular wave at 23W, but that’s just speculation right now, as the global models over the past week have been very inconsistent in their solutions. Based on this inconsistency, I’m going to stick my neck out…given the research I’ve done over the past few days regarding the MJO and TC activity, In my opinion based on this research and theory, I believe we should see a notable increase in convective activity OOA Aug. 07. This will be a good test to see if the theory is in fact correct.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS