TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 26, 2016…5:10 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING EATL

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather associated with a mid-upper level low and surface trof, has moved over LA and portions of TX.  Even if this had remained over the Gulf for a brief period, I do not believe it would have developed given the proximity of another upper low, creating NELY wind shear over the area.

NOAA GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lgomex

rgb-lGOMEX

HOUSTON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGE (CLICK FOR NWS LOOP LOWER MS VALLEY)
HGX.N0Q.20160726.1935

The majority of the Atlantic basin is quiet, so I’m not going to take up space with an unnecessary image.

The extreme eastern Atlantic is coming somewhat awake.  A tropical wave is noted near 12.5N;23.0W…just about due south of the Cape Verde islands.  Information contained in the 12Z NHC TAFB Surface Analysis report that the associated low is no longer at the surface, but is present at 700 mb.  Albeit this wave has limited convection at the moment, it appears to be the best organized wave we’ve seen, regarding the 700 mb level, with very notable counterclockwise circulation in the wind field, based on METEOSAT satellite loop imagery. Analysis of upper level winds indicated a diffluent flow over the wave at the moment, aiding in some divergence aloft.

METEOSAT LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

METEOSAT 14KM VIS/IR2 LOOP
tropical_met_14km_visir2

CIMSS EATL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
wm7shr

Between water vapor loop imagery, and the EUMETSAT dust channel, it appears the SAL has diminished even further, albeit still the slow process.

METEOSAT WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_met_14km_wv

EUMETSAT DUST CHANNEL
EUMETSAT_MSG_RGBDust_LowResolution

The wave is moving in a general WNW direction at the moment, at 10 kts.  Based on current forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 48-72 hours, and gaining some latitude during this period, as a break/weakness in the subtropical ridge is forecast to exist from 55W to 60W.  At around 72 hours or so, I expect a more westerly component (still WNW but not as sharp) as the ridge moves west, shifting the weakness much further west IVO the northern Bahamas/eastern Seaboard.

Upper level winds could become a little more conducive, as upon analyzing the current shear forecast,  and estimating where the location of this wave could be, if it survives, puts it in an area where wind shear becomes light.

I will continue to monitor the progress of this feature to see if it does in fact hold together, and/or begins to develop a closed surface circulation.

Another decent looking wave is over the African continent at the moment (noted in the METEOSAT 14KM VIS/IR2 Channel above), and we’ll have to see what happens when it hits the wet stuff.

Analysis of the global models indicates the models sniffing out weak low pressure west of the Cape Verde islands, anywhere from 5- 7 days out.  In fact, the CMC GGEM tracks a wave from the Atlantic, and brings it to the OBX as a strong Tropical Storm by 216 hours in the forecast period.  The model may be picking out this particular wave at 23W, but that’s just speculation right now, as the global models over the past week have been very inconsistent in their solutions.  Based on this inconsistency, I’m going to stick my neck out…given the research I’ve done over the past few days regarding the MJO and TC activity, In my opinion based on this research and theory, I believe we should see a notable increase in convective activity OOA Aug. 07.  This will be a good test to see if the theory is in fact correct.

GFS RUC TC GENESIS
gfs2.2016073112.120.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

ECMWF
ecm2.2016073112.120.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

NAVGEMnavg.2016073112.120.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

UKMET
ukm2.2016080212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

CMC GGEM
cmc2.2016080212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 26, 2016…5:10 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm. I’m just as happy that the low didn’t develop into anything, because in the past week, we have had a tree struck by lightening just behind one of my boss’ and my cars on a workday, and one of three legs of the electric service to the building went out on Sunday morning. Looks like the Southeastern Atlantic Seaboard and the Gulf States need to be watchful, with Florida watching both coasts.

  2. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks for the update Storm!! I’m looking forward to the future. I do believe that if anything gets into the gulf it’s going to be interesting with the high water temps. So here is my question why do we recurve systems to the north when the y never curved to start with? Just asking l
    Thanks

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