TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather in the GOMEX is still producing showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf, and over portions of LA. This area is associated with a mid to upper level low. Albeit vorticity is now showing up at the 850 mb level, upper level winds are not conducive for development, and the area is extremely tilted. This weather should continue to bring rain and thunderstorms to portions of the LA/TX coast during the next 48-72 hours.
The Atlantic has really shown no change, however activity seems to be increasing slightly in the EATL as waves continue to move into the Atlantic from the west African coast.
Satellite loop imagery indicates a wave along the coast, and another near 30W longitude. I am not expecting development to occur during the next 72-96 hours, as there is still some dry air and dust inhibiting convection at the moment, regarding the wave near 30W. However, I want to monitor this wave, as there is an associated 1011 mb low embedded within the ITCZ. As this moves west at around 10 kts, it should be in a position within 4-5 days where upper level winds are forecast to become light, although the 200 mb streamline flow doesn’t indicate any type of outflow pattern. I want to monitor this to see IF upper level winds do subside, whether or not this will allow for this low to keep convection pulsing to moisten the surrounding atmosphere, given it has help from the ITCZ. Most likely, it may succumb to the current dry air intrusion, but will be interesting to follow.
Elsewhere, analysis of the global models indicates the probability of a slight increase of activity off the African coast within the next 5-10 days. The GFS and FIM modeling has backed off somewhat, with the GFS however still showing a lowering of pressure off Africa, while the ECMWF, GGEM, and in a surprise, the NAVGEM, which indicates a closed low of 1008 mb. ALL of the models however, do indicate a weakening of the sub-tropical ridge to occur in about 7 days, from 1030-1031 mb, to averaging 1026-1024 mb. Again, this may be what could allow us to begin to see development, as the weakening will result in slowing the easterlies of Africa, which may cut down on the SAL, and allow for more heat to build up over the MDR.
The following forecast maps from the GFS, and the CFSv2 do indicate lowering MSLP anomalies are in the forecast.
The following is the tropical cyclone probability forecast from the ECMWF EPS model. The first two are probs for Tropical Storm strength probability, and the third for Tropical Depression strength probability. NOTE: I’m not supposed to be posting these, so this will be a ONE TIME feature for this synopsis only.
It still appears that the SAL is diminishing, albeit this year it seems to have become a very slow process. I have linked the CIMSS SAL mid and upper water vapor images, to their respective 5 day movie loops for comparison.
Based on a summation of forecast parameters, I still feel, in my professional opinion, we should begin to see things develop come the first week of Aug, with a greater probability as we enter the second 10 days of Aug.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS