TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 25, 2016…12:15 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather in the GOMEX is still producing showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf, and over portions of LA.  This area is associated with a mid to upper level low.  Albeit vorticity is now showing up at the 850 mb level, upper level winds are not conducive for development, and the area is extremely tilted.  This weather should continue to bring rain and thunderstorms to portions of the LA/TX coast during the next 48-72 hours.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lgomex

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)
CODNEXLAB-regional-southeast.rad.20160725.1505-100-100-raw

The Atlantic has really shown no change, however activity seems to be increasing slightly in the EATL as waves continue to move into the Atlantic from the west African coast.

Satellite loop imagery indicates a wave along the coast, and another near 30W longitude.  I am not expecting development to occur during the next 72-96 hours, as there is still some dry air and dust inhibiting convection at the moment, regarding the wave near 30W.  However, I want to monitor this wave, as there is an associated 1011 mb low embedded within the ITCZ.  As this moves west at around 10 kts, it should be in a position within 4-5 days where upper level winds are forecast to become light, although the 200 mb streamline flow doesn’t indicate any type of outflow pattern.  I want to monitor this to see IF upper level winds do subside, whether or not this will allow for this low to keep convection pulsing to moisten the surrounding atmosphere, given it has help from the ITCZ.  Most likely, it may succumb to the current dry air intrusion, but will be interesting to follow.

EATL SATELLITE LOOP
avn-leatl

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models indicates the probability of a slight increase of  activity off the African coast within the next 5-10 days.  The GFS and FIM modeling has backed off somewhat, with the GFS however still showing a lowering of pressure off Africa, while the ECMWF, GGEM, and in a surprise, the NAVGEM, which indicates a closed low of 1008 mb.  ALL of the models however, do indicate a weakening of the sub-tropical ridge to occur in about 7 days, from 1030-1031 mb, to averaging 1026-1024 mb.  Again, this may be what could allow us to begin to see development, as the weakening will result in slowing the easterlies of Africa, which may cut down on the SAL, and allow for more heat to build up over the MDR.

GFS
GFS.144
ECMWF
ecmwf.144GGEM
GGEM.174

NAVGEM
nav_precip_mslp_afr_21

The following forecast maps from the GFS, and the CFSv2 do indicate lowering MSLP anomalies are in the forecast.

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES
gfs_mslp_sig_catl_21

gfs_mslp_sig_catl_25

gfs_mslp_sig_catl_29

CFSv2 MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
cfs_mslp_globe_2016072500_61

cfs_mslp_globe_2016072500_81

The following is the tropical cyclone probability forecast from the ECMWF EPS model.  The first two are probs for Tropical Storm strength probability, and the third for Tropical Depression strength probability.  NOTE: I’m not supposed to be posting these, so this will be a ONE TIME feature for this synopsis only.

ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
eps_tcprob_34_atlantic_5

eps_tcprob_34_gulf_8
eps_tcprob_20_atlantic_5

CURRENT AND FORECAST MJO 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
am_ir_monthly_1

twc_globe_mjo_vp200

It still appears that the SAL is diminishing, albeit this year it seems to have become a very slow process.  I have linked the CIMSS SAL mid and upper water vapor images, to their respective 5 day movie loops for comparison.

EUMETSAT DUST CHANNEL (DUST IS PINK/MAGENTA IN COLOR)
EUMETSAT_MSG_RGBDust_LowResolution

CIMSS MID AND UPPER WATER VAPOR 5 DAY LOOPS
wvmid

wvhi

Based on a summation of forecast parameters, I still feel, in my professional opinion, we should begin to see things develop come the first week of Aug, with a greater probability as we enter the second 10 days of Aug.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 25, 2016…12:15 P.M. EDT

  1. Beachbums of Port Aransas says:

    Thanks, Senior Chief.
    This time of the year, we, in S. or Coastal Bend TX, begin to get “antsy” when anything with vorticity develops in the GOM. We are constantly reminded that it was the first week of Aug. in 1970 when CELIA decided to visit this area! Keep up the good work.

    • dellamom says:

      I feel your jitters, PortA. Greater New Orleans is late August and early September … Katrina and Isaac on August 29, Betsy on September 9.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for a thorough report, as always.

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