TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SUNDAY JUL. 24, 2016…5:55 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

An area of disturbed weather is currently over a portion of the FL. Peninsula, and over the GOMEX.  This area is associated with a mid-upper level low pressure system.  Analysis of current vorticity maps indicates vorticity is limited to the 500-200mb levels.  Upper level winds are not really optimal for development at the moment.  Doppler Radar imagery out of Florida does indicate The current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to become fairly light during the next 48 hours, however the 200 mb streamline pattern does not appear to be optimal for any outflow channel.  I will continue to monitor this area over the next 48 hours, to see if any surface reflection develops, and to see if there is any significant changes forecast to the upper pattern.

GULF OF MEXICO SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES
avn-lgomex

jsl-l

TAMPA BAY DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
TBW.N0Q.20160724.2133

Still very quiet over the Atlantic basin.  The subtropical ridge is still pumping strong at 1031-1032 mb.  I know during the past years of forecasting, that climatology does have a stronger sub-tropical ridge for July, however I can’t recall when it has been this strong so late in July…unless my memory slips me.  However, the African dust situation appears to be slowly diminishing via the EUMETSAT dust channel (dust is depicted as pink and magenta colors in the imagery).

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP WIDE VIEW
avn-l

EUMETSAT DUST CHANNEL
EUMETSAT_MSG_RGBDust_LowResolution

Upon analyzing the global models, models again do not really depict development during the next 10 days, however the GFS indicates pressure lowering over the southern portion of the MDR in about 6 days, and the FIM models indicate a low pressure area IVO the Cape Verde islands.

FIM MODELS
FIM8wind_10m_f144

FIM9wind_10m_f144

The ECMWF and CMC GGEM are indicating the formation of very weak lows (most likely weak tropical waves) between days 4 and 9 in the forecast period from 12Z today.

ECMWF
ECMWF.96
ecmwf.144ECMWF.216GGEM
GGEM.198

One anomaly I did notice, which may be the break we have been waiting on in order for either some increased tropical activity or development.  The GFS, ECMWF and CMC GGEM do indicate a weakening of the subtropical ridge by days 6-10 from 12Z today.  Should this be correct, then we should see a reduction in the easterlies near Africa, which should help in dust reduction and vast evaporational cooling at the sea surface, which would focus more heat over the MDR. 

I know I keep mentioning this, but inline with the theory that enhanced activity usually occurs in the eastern Atlantic, generally within 5-10 days of the passing of the maximum in regional precipitation over the E. Atlantic and west Africa, based on the MJO (200 mb Velocity Potential).  We are currently observing the maximum in regional precipitation based on the 200 mb Velocity Potential maps.

NCEP CPC 200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
am_ir_monthly_1
200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL REAL TIME MAP
twc_globe_mjo_vp200

If this theory is correct, I am looking for an increase in convective activity between July 29-Aug. 03.  If all the above occurrences come to fruition, and enhancement does not occur, probably the next best shot at seeing anything will be at the end of the first week of Aug/beginning of the second week, or second ten days of Aug.  Again, bear in mind, (I’ve only found 2 seasons thus far) 1953 and 1984 did not really come to life until pretty much mid Aug. in which 1953 had 14 total storms, and 1984 coming in with 13 total storms.

I will continue to analyze conditions, and intend to post during the next 3 days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SUNDAY JUL. 24, 2016…5:55 P.M. EDT

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like that we might get a taste of that moisture in IAH. Much needed.

  2. Patrick Gebhart says:

    Thank you for the update my family and I really appreciate the information! Being laid off I can’t help when I get back to work I will help out. Thanks Patrick

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

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