TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
An area of disturbed weather is currently over a portion of the FL. Peninsula, and over the GOMEX. This area is associated with a mid-upper level low pressure system. Analysis of current vorticity maps indicates vorticity is limited to the 500-200mb levels. Upper level winds are not really optimal for development at the moment. Doppler Radar imagery out of Florida does indicate The current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to become fairly light during the next 48 hours, however the 200 mb streamline pattern does not appear to be optimal for any outflow channel. I will continue to monitor this area over the next 48 hours, to see if any surface reflection develops, and to see if there is any significant changes forecast to the upper pattern.
Still very quiet over the Atlantic basin. The subtropical ridge is still pumping strong at 1031-1032 mb. I know during the past years of forecasting, that climatology does have a stronger sub-tropical ridge for July, however I can’t recall when it has been this strong so late in July…unless my memory slips me. However, the African dust situation appears to be slowly diminishing via the EUMETSAT dust channel (dust is depicted as pink and magenta colors in the imagery).
Upon analyzing the global models, models again do not really depict development during the next 10 days, however the GFS indicates pressure lowering over the southern portion of the MDR in about 6 days, and the FIM models indicate a low pressure area IVO the Cape Verde islands.
The ECMWF and CMC GGEM are indicating the formation of very weak lows (most likely weak tropical waves) between days 4 and 9 in the forecast period from 12Z today.
One anomaly I did notice, which may be the break we have been waiting on in order for either some increased tropical activity or development. The GFS, ECMWF and CMC GGEM do indicate a weakening of the subtropical ridge by days 6-10 from 12Z today. Should this be correct, then we should see a reduction in the easterlies near Africa, which should help in dust reduction and vast evaporational cooling at the sea surface, which would focus more heat over the MDR.
I know I keep mentioning this, but inline with the theory that enhanced activity usually occurs in the eastern Atlantic, generally within 5-10 days of the passing of the maximum in regional precipitation over the E. Atlantic and west Africa, based on the MJO (200 mb Velocity Potential). We are currently observing the maximum in regional precipitation based on the 200 mb Velocity Potential maps.
If this theory is correct, I am looking for an increase in convective activity between July 29-Aug. 03. If all the above occurrences come to fruition, and enhancement does not occur, probably the next best shot at seeing anything will be at the end of the first week of Aug/beginning of the second week, or second ten days of Aug. Again, bear in mind, (I’ve only found 2 seasons thus far) 1953 and 1984 did not really come to life until pretty much mid Aug. in which 1953 had 14 total storms, and 1984 coming in with 13 total storms.
I will continue to analyze conditions, and intend to post during the next 3 days.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS