TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / SEASON DISCUSSION…ISSUED JUL. 19, 2016…6:10 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

Still very quiet over the Atlantic basin today.  The same two culprits at work…a strong Atlantic sub-tropical ridge, and African dust.  The sub-tropical ridge was at 1031 mb this morning, which equates to 30.45 inches of mercury.

ATLANTIC BASIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY IR4 CHANNEL
avn-l

ATLANTIC BASIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
wv-l

NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)
USA_12Z

A large area of disturbed weather is noted off the African coast,between 20W – 30W.  Albeit convection was abundant and somewhat symmetrical earlier, convection in the last few frames of the satellite loop image appears to be waning.

RAMSDIS METEOSAT LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

At the moment, upper level winds are fairly brisk out of the east (easterly shear), which is evident by the cirrus clouds being blown toward the west.  Water vapor imagery at the moment seems to reveal this area may be in a partial moisture shield, and could have the slight possibility of fighting off some of the African dust noted  in SAL imagery, and the EUMETSAT dust channel.  This doesn’t necessarily mean development will occur, however my thoughts upon analysis are, that this disturbed weather may moisten the atmosphere somewhat more, dispersing some of the dust.  Conditions at this time are not really favorable for development…with more favorable conditions lying ahead in around 72 hours approaching 55W-60W, where upper level winds are forecast to be light.  Just for something to watch, I’ll be monitoring this feature just to see how it interacts with the current state of the atmosphere.

METEOSAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP
tropical_met_14km_wv

SAL IMAGERY
truecolZ-1

EUMETSAT DUST CHANNEL
EUMETSAT_MSG_RGBDust_LowResolution

Elsewhere, global models still indicate no tropical storm development over the next 10 days.  By day 6-10 however, they appear to hint at another wave exiting Africa, and becoming a 1010-1007 mb low.  Right now, it is not clear if this feature, should it come to fruition, if it will develop, as the models tend to lose it within 3-4 days after initialization.  I’ll have to re-visit this prospect with forecast conditions, let’s say at about 5 days out.  They may be dropping this, as the 5 day dust forecast continues to indicate African dust coming out of the northern Sahel region (although concentrations appear to be diminished).

ECMWF 144 HOURS
ecmwf.144
GFS 234 HOURS
GFS.234
GGEM 234 HOURS
GGEM.234
SKIRON DUST FORECAST (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION CONTROL)
012.gif

Based on the current and forecast MJO 200 mb Vertical Velocity map, and if the theory is correct of an uptick in activity 5-10 days after the MJO maximum in regional precipitation occurs over the east Atlantic and West Africa, the global modeling could be correct.  The MJO Vertical Velocity forecast maps do argue for slightly more favorable conditions the very last week of this month, into the first week of Aug.

200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY MAP
twc_globe_mjo_vp200

If this DOES NOT come to fruition, (yes, we could remain quiet, even through the first week of Aug.), you may ask, are we still going to have a busy season?  It is still quite possible.  The following is referencing 2 past hurricane seasons.  The article following that from Accuweather pretty much reflects my sentiments on should we still remain quiet through the first week of Aug., of when activity may increase.  The seasons I looked at were 1953 and 1984.  The season of 1953 had its first named system on 25 May-06 Jun.  After that, it dried up, and the next named storm didn’t form until 11 Aug.  The season of 1984 experienced a sub-tropical storm on 18-21 Aug., and first named TROPICAL system (Arthur) not until 28 Aug.  The graphics are linked, so you click on them, then scroll down to see the actual total of storms for those seasons.  One other thing that leads me to believe we may still have a somewhat active season is, even though it seems the subtropical ridge doesn’t want to weaken, the 1984 season seems to have been under the same conditions as far as ridging, as the SST mean anomalies indicated a cold AMO (Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation) noted by the much colder anomalies across the Atlantic basin.  The warmer anomalies, and hence net upward motion were well north of the MDR, where the colder anomalies would allow for sinking air.  I have the current anomalies, and the mean anomalies for Sep. 1984 posted for comparison.

HURRICANE SEASON 1953
track1953

HURRICANE SEASON 1984
track1984

SST ANOMALIES JUNE 18, 2016
anomnight.7.18.2016

SST ANOMALIES (MEAN) SEP. 1984
September.84.anomaly

ACCUWEATHER ARTICLE (CLICK ON GRAPHIC)
650x366_07041740_hd35

So, in the grand scheme of things, we’ll see what happens.  I could always be wrong…but it wouldn’t be the first time, nor the last.  Ya can only forecast with what ya have to work with, and what you’ve learned over the years.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / SEASON DISCUSSION…ISSUED JUL. 19, 2016…6:10 P.M. EDT

  1. BeachBum of Port A says:

    A few anomalies here and there! We had an event of our own here in the Coastal Bend this morning, but gratefully, nothing of any import happened! Thanks Storm for your input. We appreciate it!

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