TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Still very quiet over the Atlantic basin today. Dry air pretty much dominates the basin with a combination of African dust, and subsidence from the large subtropical ridge given it’s close proximity to Africa, and a MSLP of around 1029 mb (30.39 in).
A high amplitude Tropical Wave has exited the African continent, with limited convection o the south of the wave axis. At the moment, I do not expect development from this wave due to the mid levels of the atmosphere still remaining fairly dry.
Analysis of the global models doesn’t really indicate any tropical development within the next 7-10 days. However, the GFS and ECMWF have both been consistent now during this week, indicating a pattern change with a shift in position of the sub-tropical ridge, allowing for pressures to lower over a portion of the MDR, and off the African coastline. In fact, the wave just mentioned, can be tracked (albeit the models keep it weak) in the 500 mb height anomaly maps, and the MSLPA maps. It is unknown at the moment if development will occur as this moves closer toward the Bahamas and/or U.S., but may be something to look at if the pattern improves. Overall wind shear has been below climatological values over the Atlantic MDR, however Vertical Instability also remains well below climatology. Vertical Instability could change however if the shift in the subtropical ridge occurs, although I’d like to see more in the way of total precipitation over the African Continent during the next 10 days. The totals don’t appear to be very much, but could take care of SOME of the dust we’ve been noting. One thing I did pick out on total rainfall…some heavier amounts right near and just off the coast. This COULD be indicative of increased tropical activity, but will remain to be seen. The GFS indicates significant lowering of pressure over the GOMEX area at days 12 and 16.
AFRICA TOTAL PRECIPITATION 10 DAY FORECAST
I know it is very quiet right now, but I really do believe with the forecast pattern shift, we should begin to see an uptick in activity, late third week, to end of the month. I haven’t researched this as of yet, to actually see if the theory correlates, but here is a little something on the MJO in an AMS Journal article, authored by Dr. Phil Klotzbach (CSU). If this holds true, then it would pretty much seem to support increased activity the last 10 days of this month, as the MJO apparently is within the criteria of east Africa, and Indian Ocean as mentioned in the following excerpt:
Because of this observed clustering, the MJO has been considered a likely modulator of TC activity. Maloney and Hartmann (2000) documented that Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean tropical cyclogenesis was 4 times more likely to occur when lower-tropospheric MJO wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific were westerly than when they were easterly. Mo (2000) demonstrated that TC activity in the Atlantic was most enhanced when the convectively enhanced phase of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, of which the MJO was the dominant signal, was located over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection was located over the tropical Pacific. Maloney and Shaman (2008) show that TC activity in the east Atlantic tends to be suppressed about 5–10 days before a maximum in regional precipitation over the east Atlantic and West Africa, while TC activity is enhanced about 5–10 days after the maximum in regional precipitation. Barrett and Leslie (2009), using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s real-time MJO index, documented that storms were 4 times more likely to make landfall along the U.S. coastline when the MJO had a large amplitude and convection was enhanced at 120°W.
The following 200 mb vertical velocity anomaly map shows pretty much the aforementioned setup.
I work the next 3 days, so no updates will be available. I will try to have another one late Sunday.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS