TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 13, 2016…4:05 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

Still very quiet over the Atlantic basin today.  Dry air pretty much dominates the basin with a combination of African dust, and subsidence from the large subtropical ridge given it’s close proximity to Africa, and a MSLP of around 1029 mb (30.39 in).

ATLANTIC OCEAN IR SATELLITE LOOP WIDE VIEW
avn-l

ATLANTIC OCEAN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP WIDE VIEW
wv-l

A high amplitude Tropical Wave has exited the African continent, with limited convection o the south of the wave axis.  At the moment, I do not expect development from this wave due to the mid levels of the atmosphere still remaining fairly dry.

NOAA EATL SATELLITE LOOP
avn-leatl

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

SAL TRUE COLOR SATELLITE IMAGE
truecolZ

Analysis of the global models doesn’t really indicate any tropical development within the next 7-10 days.  However, the GFS and ECMWF have both been consistent now during this week, indicating a pattern change with a shift in position of the sub-tropical ridge, allowing for pressures to lower over a portion of the MDR, and off the African coastline.  In fact, the wave just mentioned, can be tracked (albeit the models keep it weak) in the 500 mb height anomaly maps, and the MSLPA maps.  It is unknown at the moment if development will occur as this moves closer toward the Bahamas and/or U.S., but may be something to look at if the pattern improves.  Overall wind shear has been below climatological values over the Atlantic MDR, however Vertical Instability also remains well below climatology.  Vertical Instability could change however if the shift in the subtropical ridge occurs, although I’d like to see more in the way of total precipitation over the African Continent during the next 10 days.  The totals don’t appear to be very much, but could take care of SOME of the dust we’ve been noting.  One thing I did pick out on total rainfall…some heavier amounts right near and just off the coast.  This COULD be indicative of increased tropical activity, but will remain to be seen.  The GFS indicates significant lowering of pressure over the GOMEX area at days 12 and 16.

ECMWF 500 MB ANOMALY  FORECAST MAP
ecm_z500_anom_catl_5
ECMWF MSLPA FORECAST MAPS
ecm_mslpa_catl_3

ecm_mslpa_catl_8

GFS 500 MB ANOMALY FORECAST MAP
gfs_z500_sig_catl_16
GFS MSLPA FORECAST MAPS
gfs_mslp_sig_catl_29

gfs_mslp_sig_conus_49
gfs_mslp_sig_conus_65

AFRICA TOTAL PRECIPITATION 10 DAY FORECAST
gfs_total_precip_afr_41
I know it is very quiet right now, but I really do believe with the forecast pattern shift, we should begin to see an uptick in activity, late third week, to end of the month.  I haven’t researched this as of yet, to actually see if the theory  correlates, but here is a little something on the MJO in an AMS Journal article, authored by Dr. Phil Klotzbach (CSU).  If this holds true, then it would pretty much seem to support increased activity the last 10 days of this month, as the MJO apparently is within the criteria of east Africa, and Indian Ocean as mentioned in the following excerpt:

Because of this observed clustering, the MJO has been considered a likely modulator of TC activity. Maloney and Hartmann (2000) documented that Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean tropical cyclogenesis was 4 times more likely to occur when lower-tropospheric MJO wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific were westerly than when they were easterly. Mo (2000) demonstrated that TC activity in the Atlantic was most enhanced when the convectively enhanced phase of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, of which the MJO was the dominant signal, was located over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection was located over the tropical Pacific. Maloney and Shaman (2008) show that TC activity in the east Atlantic tends to be suppressed about 5–10 days before a maximum in regional precipitation over the east Atlantic and West Africa, while TC activity is enhanced about 5–10 days after the maximum in regional precipitation. Barrett and Leslie (2009), using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s real-time MJO index, documented that storms were 4 times more likely to make landfall along the U.S. coastline when the MJO had a large amplitude and convection was enhanced at 120°W.

The following 200 mb vertical velocity anomaly map shows pretty much the aforementioned setup.

CPC 200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL MAP
am_ir_monthly_60E_1

REAL TIME 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES MAP
twc_globe_mjo_vp200

I work the next 3 days, so no updates will be available.  I will try to have another one late Sunday.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 13, 2016…4:05 P.M. EDT

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah…Looks like long range models are showing a pattern change. They look to be targeting W Florida and SETX. Hmmm…maybe I’m reading this picture wrong. Hope so.

    • Monty, I believe your speaking of the 500 mb anomaly spam. What hey are is, showing where the models think 500 mb pressures are going to below the std., or norm. In this case, the pressure falls are somewhat significant…doesn’t necessarily mean a tropical storm or hurricane, but development could occur within that area.

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm you are on it thankyou my friend for keeping us posted.

  3. dellamom says:

    That last GFS projection, 16 days out, with its teeny-tiny blue dot in the middle of the grey looks a little too much like a tightly-wound hurricane to me. I will send hopeful thoughts into the ether that it won’t be such a creature. Thanks for the update, and have a safe and productive work week. I appreciate the time you devote to us.

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