TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Same old, same old today.
Satellite imagery shows a tranquil Atlantic basin, with still a decent quantity of dry air present noted in water vapor imagery.
It does appear from analysis this morning of the SAL product from CIMSS, that there may be a small break in the SAL action. Although it seems that the SAL is not as heavy or extensive, mid level water vapor imagery shows the environment is still not sufficiently moist. You will also note, the Stratocumulus cloud deck that stands out from around 18N-25N, indicating a very stable environment.
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGE
Again, based on MSLPA maps from both the GFS and ECMWF, it appears a change to the pattern is upcoming during the next 7-10 days, as the sub-tropical ridge shifts somewhat north and west, which would allow for anomalous lowering of pressure over portions of the EATL and MDR. This may also allow for some diminishing subsidence which has been working in tandem with the SAL in keeping the Atlantic basin stable.
GFS MSLPA FORECAST
ECMWF MSLPA FORECAST
Analysis of the 200 mb velocity potential products has me thinking, we may not be getting any real help from the MJO anytime this month, as the upward motion forecast pretty much keeps upward vertical motion concentrated over the extreme EPAC region.
Guidance From The “Marsupial Paradigm” of tropical cyclogenesis from easterly waves
This is from Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell Analytics. Please view the video dated 7/11. At around 0:57, Joe mentions what I’ve had a gut feeling about. Let’s hope it’s wrong.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS