TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 11, 2016…11:45 A.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

Same old, same old today.

Satellite imagery shows a tranquil Atlantic basin, with still a decent quantity of dry air present noted in water vapor imagery.

ATLANTIC WIDE IR SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

ATLANTIC WIDE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
wv-l

METEOSAT SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

EUMETSAT SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION PAGE)
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color_LowResolution

It does appear from analysis this morning of the SAL product from CIMSS, that there may be a small break in the SAL action.  Although it seems that the SAL is not as heavy or extensive, mid level water vapor imagery shows the environment is still not sufficiently moist.  You will also note, the Stratocumulus cloud deck that stands out from around 18N-25N, indicating a very stable environment.

SAL TRUE COLOR SATELLITE IMAGE
truecol

MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGE
wvmid

Again, based on MSLPA maps from both the GFS and ECMWF, it appears a change to the pattern is upcoming during the next 7-10 days, as the sub-tropical ridge shifts somewhat north and west, which would allow for anomalous lowering of pressure over portions of the EATL and MDR.  This may also allow for some diminishing subsidence which has been working in tandem with the SAL in keeping the Atlantic basin stable.

GFS MSLPA FORECAST
gfs_mslp_sig_catl_41
ECMWF MSLPA FORECAST
ecm_mslpa_catl_6
ecm_mslpa_catl_11
Analysis of the 200 mb velocity potential products has me thinking, we may not be getting any real help from the MJO anytime this month, as the upward motion forecast pretty much keeps upward vertical motion concentrated over the extreme EPAC region.

REAL TIME 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
twc_globe_mjo_vp200

CPC 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
am_ir_monthly_1

I thought I would post this little tidbit of information on what we term “wave pouches”

Guidance From The “Marsupial Paradigm” of tropical cyclogenesis from easterly waves
http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html

This is from Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell Analytics.  Please view the video dated 7/11.  At around 0:57, Joe mentions what I’ve had a gut feeling about.  Let’s hope it’s wrong.
http://www.weatherbell.com/

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 11, 2016…11:45 A.M. EDT

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm it is great to have a great forecaster like you. Like I said we are blessed.

  2. Jacob Cvetan says:

    I cant seem to get to this without signing up for a free trail.

  3. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm do you think this year than last year at this time?

  4. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Looking forward to learning about kangaroo waves if I get out of work at a decent time tonight. I sure don’t want a hurricane, but something to break the phenomenal heat would be good. We’re having August weather in June in Southeastern Louisiana.

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