TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
Not really any changes in the forecast thinking over the next 7-10 days. The Atlantic basin is still under the influence of a large, sub-tropical ridge, and is fairly tranquil.. Albeit the ridge is weaker than it has previously been, it is centered fairly far south, which again increases subsidence over the MDR, and allows for dust to be picked up as it comes off Africa. The further southern position also increases surface winds, which creates more evaporation over the ocean surface, as explained in yesterdays synopsis.
Another tropical wave is noted in the far eastern Atlantic, exiting the African coast. I am not expecting development of this feature.
There is still a very active pattern in the EPAC, which will continue as long as upward motion (upward vertical velocity) as depicted by the green contours in the 200 mb velocity potential map.
Increased convection is noted over the African continent.
Analysis once again of the global models, doesn’t indicate any organized development over the next 7-10 days. As discussed in the prior synopsis, an apparent change in the pattern a regarding MSLP and MSLPA (Mean Sea Level Pressure Anomalies) is noted in analysis. The ECMWF model indicates the subtropical ridge to shift northward and west in about 6-10 days, with both the ECMWF and GFS indicating lowering pressure off the African west coast, with the ECMWF showing lower pressure anomalies of of Africa. I will reiterate, this does not mean definite development, however with lowering pressures, and what appears to be the west African monsoon circulation making a weak showing, probabilities should increase. It is not unusual for July to be inactive as far as development. The following graph shows tropical storm and hurricane climatology for the long term average of 1851-2014 which shows the season doesn’t begin to “ramp up”until the end of July, beginning of August.
Other than that, I thought I would post some Sea Surface Temperature maps (current), SST anomalies, and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) or also known as OHC (Ocean Heat Content).
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS