TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 10, 2016…5:30 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

Not really any changes in the forecast thinking over the next 7-10 days.  The Atlantic basin is still under the influence of a large, sub-tropical ridge, and is fairly tranquil..  Albeit the ridge is weaker than it has previously been, it is centered fairly far south, which again increases subsidence over the MDR, and allows for dust to be picked up as it comes off Africa.  The further southern position also increases surface winds, which creates more evaporation over the ocean surface, as explained in yesterdays synopsis.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE IR LOOP WIDE VIEW
avn-l

ATLANTIC SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP WIDE VIEW
wv-l

NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP
USA_12Z

Another tropical wave is noted in the far eastern Atlantic, exiting the African coast.  I am not expecting development of this feature.

RAMSDIS METEOSAT SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

There is still a very active pattern in the EPAC, which will continue as long as upward motion (upward vertical velocity) as depicted by the green contours in the 200 mb velocity potential map.

CPC 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL MAP
am_ir_monthly_1

Increased convection is noted over the African continent.

EUMETSAT IR SATELLITE IMAGE
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color_LowResolution

Analysis once again of the global models, doesn’t indicate any organized development over the next 7-10 days.  As discussed in the prior synopsis, an apparent change in the pattern a regarding MSLP and MSLPA (Mean Sea Level Pressure Anomalies) is noted in analysis.  The ECMWF model indicates the subtropical ridge to shift northward and west in about 6-10 days, with both the ECMWF and GFS indicating lowering pressure off the African west coast, with the ECMWF showing lower pressure anomalies of of Africa.  I will reiterate, this does not mean definite development, however with lowering pressures, and what appears to be the west African monsoon circulation making a weak showing, probabilities should increase.  It is not unusual for July to be inactive as far as development.  The following graph shows tropical storm and hurricane climatology for the long term average of 1851-2014 which shows the season doesn’t begin to “ramp up”until the end of July, beginning of August.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGY
atlantic_climo_1851-2014

ECMWF MSLPA FORECAST
ecm_mslpa_natl_5
ecm_mslpa_natl_7

ecm_mslpa_natl_11

ECMWF AND GFS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS FORECAST
ECMWF.240

gfs.240

GFS.300

Other than that, I thought I would post some Sea Surface Temperature maps (current), SST anomalies, and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) or also known as OHC (Ocean Heat Content).

ATLANTIC BASIN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
natl_cdas1
ATLANTIC BASIN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
natl_cdas1_anom

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT MAPS
tcheat_atl_2016

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl
I should have another synopsis tomorrow.  I have to work Tuesday, so Wed. will be the next in line.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 10, 2016…5:30 P.M. EDT

  1. Greg goodman says:

    mr storm I know you have always taught us that the a/b high always moves around during hurricane season. Were do you think it will mainly be set up for the heart of hurricane season?

  2. Bruce Malo says:

    Making for some beautiful sunsets.

  3. Mike Doll says:

    Looks like the gulf is a hot tub if the conditions were just right we could be in trouble in the gulf coast!!!

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