TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 09, 2016…8:45 P.M.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good evening everyone!

Still quiet in the tropics again.  Satellite imagery hasn’t really changed much since the last time I updated.  It is noted there is an increase in activity over on the extreme EPAC side.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP WIDE VIEW IR4/WATER VAPOR
avn-l

wv-l

This is pretty much expected, given that the majority of upward motion, or vertical velocity is concentrated over that particular area.

REAL TIME AND FORECAST 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES

twc_globe_mjo_vp200

There is a discrepancy between the real time MJO filtered 200 mb velocity potentials, as compared to the near-real time NCEP product, which shows downward motion over the Atlantic.

NCEP 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
am_ir_monthly_60E_1

Eastern Atlantic satellite imagery indicates another tropical wave getting ready to exit the African continent, and the EUMETSAT shows an increase in wave activity over the African continent.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP
avn-leatl

EUMETSAT IR AND DUST CHANNELS
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color_LowResolution

EUMETSAT_MSG_RGBDust_LowResolution

Given the current situation of SAL (dust), and a still rather moderate subtropical ridge in place, you’ll note dry air over most of the Atlantic, and African dust (which is noted in the CIMSS true color satellite still, and also, in the EUMETSAT dust channel…dust on the EUMETSAT shows up as pink and magenta colors).  This combination of subsidence (sinking air) and dust, is creating a fairly stable atmosphere over the MDR.

CIMSS SAL TRUE COLOR SATELLITE IMAGE
truecol

Analysis of the global models do not indicate any development over the next 5-7 days.  However, by this time, or just beyond mid month, there could possible be a change.  Remember what I said about the position and strength of the subtropical ridge.  It has been pretty much located further south than we usually see.  Even though the NAO has been moderately negative over the past week, surface pressures are hanging around 1026-1027 mb.  I have found in past forecasting experience, that 1024 mb or below seems to be one key, in that the trade winds slow down at the surface.  I performed an analysis of current and forecast 900 mb winds, which are very close to the surface, and they have been running 20-30 knots.  This has a tendency to cause upwelling for one, of cooler water near Africa, and causes the evaporation rate near the ocean’s surface to be too strong, dissipating heat and spreading it out, instead of allowing it to be focused more in one place or column.  So, a little more weakening of the ridge can be twofold, in allowing for decreased subsidence, and decreased evaporation rate at the surface.  Now, as I mentioned, we may see a change coming in around day 7-10.  I call him my colleague, as he’s taught me well with his videos, which is where I picked up a lot of my tropical forecasting skills. Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell Analytics mentioned something which I already knew, but he beat me to it, as this is the first I’ve been able to update.

Remember, I just spoke of the position of the sub-tropical ridge.  Well, based on the GFS and especially the ECMWF, it appears a pattern change is in order.  Based on MSLP and MSLP anomalies, current and forecast out to 5-10 days, the ridge is supposed to shift more toward the north and west, which will displace the current pattern of lower pressure which is just and, and north of 30N latitude, with the ridge sliding into this position.  This will move it away from its close proximity to Africa.  With this pattern occurring (if it does), pressures will be rising further north,which means one thing…pressures will be allowed to lower near Africa and over the eastern portion of the MDR region.  This doesn’t necessarily mean development will occur, but it increases the probability of development occurring.

GFS 850 FORECAST MAP (WEATHERBELL)
gfs_z850_uv_vort_catl_21
ECMWF 12Z INITIALIZATION MSLP ANOMALIES
ecm_mslpa_natl_1

ECMWF FORECAST MSLP ANOMALIES (Note the shift in the ridge, and lower pressure anomalies near Africa)
ecm_mslpa_natl_7

ecm_mslpa_natl_8

ecm_mslpa_catl_11You’ll also note in the maps of the ECMWF and GFS at 216 hours, sort of what I call a “tongue” extending from NE to SW near Africa…this is representative of the west Africa monsoon circulation appearing.

ECMWF 216 HOURS
ECMWF.216
GFS 216 HOURSGFS.216
So, as we get closer,  I’ll keep tabs on things, and will have a better update on this, hopefully Wed.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 09, 2016…8:45 P.M.

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm you are great we are very blessed to have you.

  2. Elliot Lisak says:

    Thank You Mr. Chief a great synopsis. Much appreciated.

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