TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GOMEX, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN…ISSUED JUL. 05, 2016…1:00 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

The Tropical Wave or the 1014 mb low which came off the African Continent yesterday, has lost almost all convection upon moving into the Atlantic.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY IR4 AND VIS/IR2 CHANNELS
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

The low appears to now be moving to the WNW noted in satellite loop imagery.

Upon analysis of water vapor imagery from the METEOSAT SAL page from CIMSS, there seems to be 2 reasons at the moment as to why this low has what we call “fizzled”  Albeit there is enough TPW for it to work with, and reasonable moisture in the upper atmosphere, it appears the mid levels are just a little to dry to support this low.  In addition, SST’s, although warm, are just at or on the threshold of 26C.  Criteria for development is 26.5C.  I know, threading the needle, however SST’s below 26.5 do not add much in the way of instability into the atmosphere (allowing for enough heat and moisture to offset evaporational cooling.  This is why we look toward a weak to neutral, to negative NAO as the trade winds become slower, thus reducing the evaporational cooling rate).

WATER VAPOR UPPER (click images for larger image)
wvhi

WATER VAPOR MID LEVEL
wvmid

CURRENT SST MAP
natl_cdas1

DEPTH OF 26C ISOTHERM
h26_aQG3_latest_natl

TPW LOOP
latest72hrs

The remainder of the Atlantic Basin remains pretty much quiet.  Note all of the dry air in the water vapor loop

ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP (click images for loop)
avn-l

ATLANTIC WIDE WATER VAPOR LOOP
wv-l

Elsewhere, global models do not really indicate much as far as tropical development once again, during the next 7-10 days.  The GFS indicates another closed low coming off Africa in about 8-9 days, then does nothing with it.  The ECMWF indicates a low to develop off the Eastern Seaboard off the NC coastline, with the GGEM showing a low in the same time frame, but further north..  This appears to come from a weak trof split during the period.

GFS
GFS.210
ECMWF
ECMWF.216
ECMWF.240GGEM
GGEM.240

It was the thought that with the 200 mb velocity potential, MJO pulse being near our part of the world, we would see an increase in at least convective activity over the GOMEX and Caribbean.  However, current and forecast 200 mb velocity potential criteria seem to indicate the focus of energy being confined further south over the extreme EPAC.  It may be possible we could see some type of upswing in activity near Africa, based on the MJO forecast, however the subtropical ridge would pretty much have to remain weaker than it has been, in order to prevent strong subsidence from drying out the atmosphere, and/or from kicking out dust over the Atlantic.  If you note in the black and white satellite loop I posted, you can see what we call “popcorn” clouds near the low.  This is part of a stratocumulus deck.  This, along with the surrounding clouds not having any vertical extent, indicates the atmosphere is fairly stable at the moment.  It usually takes a few well defined waves, and minimal to lack of SAL to “moisten” the atmosphere for future waves to develop.

200MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
twc_globe_mjo_vp200

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

I have added a link in the “links” section, credit given to Hurricane.com, which gives a good presentation on how to read some of the maps you see me post on my site.

Have a blessed day! 

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GOMEX, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN…ISSUED JUL. 05, 2016…1:00 P.M. EDT

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    Thank you Mr storm. Mr storm I hope we don’t have high pressure set up in August like we do now if we do do you think someone will get hit.

  2. RitaFitz says:

    Thank you, Storm. 🙂

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

  4. Brenda says:

    great stuff here Storm. Always look forward to your Analysis. Keep up the good work

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