TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
The Tropical Wave or the 1014 mb low which came off the African Continent yesterday, has lost almost all convection upon moving into the Atlantic.
The low appears to now be moving to the WNW noted in satellite loop imagery.
Upon analysis of water vapor imagery from the METEOSAT SAL page from CIMSS, there seems to be 2 reasons at the moment as to why this low has what we call “fizzled” Albeit there is enough TPW for it to work with, and reasonable moisture in the upper atmosphere, it appears the mid levels are just a little to dry to support this low. In addition, SST’s, although warm, are just at or on the threshold of 26C. Criteria for development is 26.5C. I know, threading the needle, however SST’s below 26.5 do not add much in the way of instability into the atmosphere (allowing for enough heat and moisture to offset evaporational cooling. This is why we look toward a weak to neutral, to negative NAO as the trade winds become slower, thus reducing the evaporational cooling rate).
Elsewhere, global models do not really indicate much as far as tropical development once again, during the next 7-10 days. The GFS indicates another closed low coming off Africa in about 8-9 days, then does nothing with it. The ECMWF indicates a low to develop off the Eastern Seaboard off the NC coastline, with the GGEM showing a low in the same time frame, but further north.. This appears to come from a weak trof split during the period.
It was the thought that with the 200 mb velocity potential, MJO pulse being near our part of the world, we would see an increase in at least convective activity over the GOMEX and Caribbean. However, current and forecast 200 mb velocity potential criteria seem to indicate the focus of energy being confined further south over the extreme EPAC. It may be possible we could see some type of upswing in activity near Africa, based on the MJO forecast, however the subtropical ridge would pretty much have to remain weaker than it has been, in order to prevent strong subsidence from drying out the atmosphere, and/or from kicking out dust over the Atlantic. If you note in the black and white satellite loop I posted, you can see what we call “popcorn” clouds near the low. This is part of a stratocumulus deck. This, along with the surrounding clouds not having any vertical extent, indicates the atmosphere is fairly stable at the moment. It usually takes a few well defined waves, and minimal to lack of SAL to “moisten” the atmosphere for future waves to develop.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
I have added a link in the “links” section, credit given to Hurricane.com, which gives a good presentation on how to read some of the maps you see me post on my site.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS