TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JULY 04, 2016…12:55 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

I know it seems like a broken record but, based on my analysis of the current run of the global models, tropical cyclone development over the GOMEX, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic basins is not anticipated during the next 7-10 days.

Atlantic wide satellite imagery indicates some unsettled weather over Panama, and limited convection with a tropical wave near 17N;57W.  Other than that, the Atlantic is fairly tranquil.  Water vapor imagery tends to indicate the Atlantic basin overall, is not as dry as a few days ago.

ATLANTIC OCEAN SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP WIDE VIEW
avn-l

ATLANTIC OCEAN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP WIDE VIEW
wv-l

Eastern Atlantic satellite imagery indicates the strongest tropical wave so far, getting ready to exit the African continent.  At the moment, it is hard to say whether or not this wave will hold together once it enters the Atlantic.  Based on SST contours, the water temperature may be just somewhat too cool near Africa (climatology), however the SST’s seem to be warmer, west of there.  I’m not too keen at the moment on this developing, (even though the earliest wave to develop was on Jul. 4, albeit the year escapes me at the moment) however, there are some favorable factors at the moment, which may stay with this wave during the next 5 days.

EASTERN ATLANTIC (METEOSAT) SATELLITE VIEW (LOOP)
avn-leatl

WATER VAPOR LOOP
wv-leatl

RAMSDIS METEOSAT LOOP
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater

GLOBAL SST CONTOURS (CLICK IMAGE TO ZOOM)
global.fc

First, if the 200 mb vertical velocity potential forecast comes to fruition, upward motion in the atmosphere may be available over the next 10 days.  Have to see if this wave can take advantage of it, should the forecast come to fruition

200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
twc_globe_mjo_vp200

It appears this wave has some decent moisture to work with, as well as good precipitable water values over the next 5 days.  Upon analysis of both 700 mb and 850 mb show ample moisture at those levels, however the 500 mb layer is forecast to be somewhat drier, which could be a hindrance.

GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST 120 HOURS
gfs_atlantic_000_850_pw_ht

Upper level winds are currently favorable for organization over the wave, and doing a quick estimate of where this wave my be in 5 days (30-35W?), the zonal shear forecast indicates upper level winds could be somewhat conducive.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
wm7shr

GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST
850200ushear20

So, given these factors, should they hold, I will be monitoring this tropical wave for any significant changes over the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!  Happy 4th of July!!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JULY 04, 2016…12:55 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you for the forecast and for your service which helped to maintain our independence. Happy 4th to a.

  2. dkmac says:

    Happy Independence Day to you, Storm. Your “broken record” posts don’t bother me a bit, keep them coming!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s