TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
I know it seems like a broken record but, based on my analysis of the current run of the global models, tropical cyclone development over the GOMEX, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic basins is not anticipated during the next 7-10 days.
Atlantic wide satellite imagery indicates some unsettled weather over Panama, and limited convection with a tropical wave near 17N;57W. Other than that, the Atlantic is fairly tranquil. Water vapor imagery tends to indicate the Atlantic basin overall, is not as dry as a few days ago.
Eastern Atlantic satellite imagery indicates the strongest tropical wave so far, getting ready to exit the African continent. At the moment, it is hard to say whether or not this wave will hold together once it enters the Atlantic. Based on SST contours, the water temperature may be just somewhat too cool near Africa (climatology), however the SST’s seem to be warmer, west of there. I’m not too keen at the moment on this developing, (even though the earliest wave to develop was on Jul. 4, albeit the year escapes me at the moment) however, there are some favorable factors at the moment, which may stay with this wave during the next 5 days.
First, if the 200 mb vertical velocity potential forecast comes to fruition, upward motion in the atmosphere may be available over the next 10 days. Have to see if this wave can take advantage of it, should the forecast come to fruition
It appears this wave has some decent moisture to work with, as well as good precipitable water values over the next 5 days. Upon analysis of both 700 mb and 850 mb show ample moisture at those levels, however the 500 mb layer is forecast to be somewhat drier, which could be a hindrance.
Upper level winds are currently favorable for organization over the wave, and doing a quick estimate of where this wave my be in 5 days (30-35W?), the zonal shear forecast indicates upper level winds could be somewhat conducive.
So, given these factors, should they hold, I will be monitoring this tropical wave for any significant changes over the next 72 hours.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day! Happy 4th of July!!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS