TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Based on my analysis of the current run of the global models, tropical cyclone development over the GOMEX, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic basins is not anticipated during the next 7-10 days.
Current satellite loop imagery indicates a fairly tranquil tropics at the moment. Tropical waves were located near 77W;47W; and 23W in the 1200Z TAFB Surface Analysis map, and can be seen in the satellite loop imagery, with the one near 77W being not very discernible. The wave approaching the Caribbean looks somewhat better, however I do not anticipate development due to the vast amount of dry air ahead of it.
Looking at the current, and forecast 200 mb Velocity Potential forecast, upward motion is very close to our basins, however the strongest and most concentrated areas are currently in the EPAC (hence the increase in development and the current Tropical systems). The forecast indicates this upward motion pulse should be over the GOMEX and Atlantic basin starting tomorrow, but more so by the week of 11 July.
Now, this could mean we may see an increase in moisture over our basins, and could allow for probable development, if a fairly organized wave were to be in place at the same time. Other than that, I’m not sure why the MJO Index forecast modeling is indicating a very weak, to non existent MJO signal over the next 10-14 days. The GFS has weakened it’s signal, but still has the MJO in Phase one, which would indicate more of the central and far eastern Atlantic, while all of the other models indicate a non existent signal, or keep it over the Indian ocean. If memory serves me correctly, the dynamic MJO Index forecast modeling is not as accurate. I am guessing we will be able to tell which is more likely correct, over the next 10 days. If we do not see anything over these next 2 weeks, it looks as if July may be a fairly quiet month.
A layer of Saharan dust is noted in satellite imagery, however it doesn’t appear very extensive.
Wind shear over the MDR is well below climatology, so that is a plus, as far as being a factor for development. The THDV or Vertical Instability map does indicate instability has increased somewhat over the past few days, but still remains below climatology. This I imagine is most likely attributed to a weakening of the NAO to negative, which would correlate with a weakening in the sub-tropical ridge.
MDR THDV CHART
There wasn’t really any convective activity over the African continent to take note of. Looking at the current total rainfall forecast for the next 10 days, and the soil moisture content, I am not so sure wee will see any decent Tropical Waves roll off the coast. Even though the rainfall total looks “wet” in the graphic, 2″-4″ over a 10 day period isn’t very much.
GFS 10 DAY AFRICA FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
GFS AFRICA SOIL MOISTURE FORECAST
So, it looks pretty much like a wait and see, in regards to the MJO forecast as to whether or not we may actually see some form of development through mid month. If you remember, after we had or last T.S., I had opined it should be quiet for about the next 30 days, due to the lack of the MJO over our portion of the world. Just another note, come very late July, and beginning in August, we don’t rely too extensively on the MJO for development, as we shift attention to the MDR and tropical waves.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS