TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: MONITORING
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE:
An area of disturbed weather has popped up over the past few hours in the Gulf of Mexico, south of TX and LA. This area is associated with a trof of low pressure due to a stationary front. Upper level winds are currently somewhat favorable for development over the area at the moment. It is unknown at this time whether or not a closed surface low will develop. However, the area is stationary at the moment as steering currents are weak. Should this persist into late tomorrow, there is always a possibility it could be designated an INVEST.
I will not be available for the next 3 days, so I will not be able to monitor this and update.
Good day everyone!
This is probably nothing, but I am currently an upper level low, associated with the TUTT, that has been pretty much stationary north of Hispaniola, and near the SE Bahamas. This may not come to anything, but I want to see if it begins to work down to the surface. Currently, vorticity maps do not indicate vorticity at the surface.
The Tropical Wave noted in the CATL yesterday, has shown a decrease in convection as it continues toward the west. I do not anticipate development due to the abundance of dry air ahead of this wave.
The wave which moved off the African coast yesterday, has become less discernible in satellite loop imagery this morning.
Once again, based on analysis of the global models this morning, tropical development is still not expected during the next 7-10 days.
The current 200 mb velocity potential forecasts are indicating some moderate to strong upward motion at approximately week 2 in the forecast period, from today. This does not always guarantee tropical development, however the probability does increase. Blues and purple in the following indicate favorable conditions (upward motion/rising air), and browns/reds indicate unfavorable (downward velocities/sinking air). With the GFS, greens indicate upward motion, yellows and reds…downward motion. The GFS 500 mb normalized anomaly forecast indicates a somewhat significant lowering of pressures in the GOMEX in around 14-16 days. Again, as I stated, not guaranteed development, but the area may bear monitoring at that time. Credit to my colleague, Levi Cowan and his Tropical Tidbits site, for the GFS 500 mb anomaly graphic.
A friend sent this to me, and credit given to Dr. Michael Ventrice, ph.D. It explains pretty much the workings associated with the 200 mb velocity potentials and the MJO.
Another traveling feature that can influence the Atlantic is the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Typically stronger and much slower-moving than a CCKW, an active MJO phase can favor upward motion and tropical cyclone development for a week or two as its forward flank approaches an ocean basin. MJOs can reinforce or dampen the effects of a CCKW. Ventrice notes: “Usually, the MJO will act to enhance the higher-frequency waves traveling through it. So you will get stronger CCKWs within the active envelope of the MJO and vice versa.” As of last week, the nearest active MJO phase was located over the Maritime Continent, a location that typically works against tropical cyclone development in the western part of the Atlantic basin. It will be a couple of weeks until this MJO makes it far enough east to boost conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, and its strength at that point is still uncertain. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean are several times more likely to form during an active MJO phase as opposed to a suppressed phase.
Here is the current map of TCHP or OHC…courtesy given to Weatherbell Analytics
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS