TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN…ISSUED JUN. 29, 2016…12:00 NOON EDT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

This is probably nothing, but I am currently an upper level low, associated with the TUTT, that has been pretty much stationary north of Hispaniola, and near the SE Bahamas.  This may not come to anything, but I want to see if it begins to work down to the surface.  Currently, vorticity maps do not indicate vorticity at the surface.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lwatl

The Tropical Wave noted in the CATL yesterday, has shown a decrease in convection as it continues toward the west.  I do not anticipate development due to the abundance of dry air ahead of this wave.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lcatl

The wave which moved off the African coast yesterday, has become less discernible in satellite loop imagery this morning.

METEOSAT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-lmeteosat

Once again, based on analysis of the global models this morning, tropical development is still not expected during the next 7-10 days.

The current 200 mb velocity potential forecasts are indicating some moderate to strong upward motion at approximately week 2 in the forecast period, from today.  This does not always guarantee tropical development, however the probability does increase.   Blues and purple in the following indicate favorable conditions (upward motion/rising air), and browns/reds  indicate unfavorable (downward velocities/sinking air).  With the GFS, greens indicate upward motion, yellows and reds…downward motion.  The GFS 500 mb normalized anomaly forecast indicates a somewhat significant lowering of pressures in the GOMEX in around 14-16 days.  Again, as I stated, not guaranteed development, but the area may bear monitoring at that time.  Credit to my colleague, Levi Cowan and his Tropical Tidbits site, for the GFS 500 mb anomaly graphic.

200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST (University of Albany)
twc_globe_mjo_vp200

GFS 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
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GFS 500 MB ANOMALY FORECAST
gfs_z500aNorm_us_48

A friend sent this to me, and credit given to Dr. Michael Ventrice, ph.D.  It explains pretty much the workings associated with the 200 mb velocity potentials and the MJO.

Another traveling feature that can influence the Atlantic is the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Typically stronger and much slower-moving than a CCKW, an active MJO phase can favor upward motion and tropical cyclone development for a week or two as its forward flank approaches an ocean basin. MJOs can reinforce or dampen the effects of a CCKW. Ventrice notes: “Usually, the MJO will act to enhance the higher-frequency waves traveling through it. So you will get stronger CCKWs within the active envelope of the MJO and vice versa.” As of last week, the nearest active MJO phase was located over the Maritime Continent, a location that typically works against tropical cyclone development in the western part of the Atlantic basin. It will be a couple of weeks until this MJO makes it far enough east to boost conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, and its strength at that point is still uncertain. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean are several times more likely to form during an active MJO phase as opposed to a suppressed phase.

Here is the current map of TCHP or OHC…courtesy given to Weatherbell Analytics

tcheat_atl_2014
I work the next 3 days, so my next update should be slated for late Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN…ISSUED JUN. 29, 2016…12:00 NOON EDT.

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Nice write-up on the MJO from Dr. Ventrice, thanks for posting it!

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