TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good day everyone!
Disturbed weather which was located over Nicaragua and Honduras over the past couple of days, has now moved into the eastern Pacific, and has a 30% probability of development in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A Tropical Wave located in the central Atlantic has seen a slight increase in convection over the past few hours. Upper level winds are somewhat conducive, however given the forward speed, and probability of catching up with drier air, I do not believe development is likely. I will monitor this area however, for any significant changes.
Another Tropical Wave is located off the African coast. At the moment, there is no significant associated convection. Based on climatology, I do not anticipate development of this wave, albeit it dies have a small moisture shield associated with it, and the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may be somewhat conducive over the next few days. I’ll monitor this as well, to see if any convection begins to develop.
Elsewhere, we are still pretty much in the same boat…analysis of the global models do not indicate any development over the next 7-10 days.
There is still noted discrepancy in the MJO index forecast between the GFS and ECMWF models. IF the GFS is correct, we could get an upward motion phase of the MJO, which would tend to enhance convective activity in the Western Hemisphere.
The GFS and CFS 200 mb velocity potential forecast still indicates favorable conditions during the second week of July. I guess this is going to be a wait and see situation based on the discrepancies between the ECMWF and the other 2 models. At least by then, we’ll know which has had the better forecast.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS