TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC…ISSUED 2:15 P.M. EDT…JUNE 28, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

 

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES: 6-8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

Good day everyone!

Disturbed weather which was located over Nicaragua and Honduras over the past couple of days, has now moved into the eastern Pacific, and has a 30% probability of development in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
avn-lwatl

A Tropical Wave located in the central Atlantic has seen a slight increase in convection over the past few hours.  Upper level winds are somewhat conducive, however given the forward speed, and probability of catching up with drier air, I do not believe development is likely.  I will monitor this area however, for any significant changes.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
avn-lcatl

CURRENT WIND SHEAR PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
wg8shr

Another Tropical Wave is located off the African coast.  At the moment, there is no significant associated convection.  Based on climatology, I do not anticipate development of this wave, albeit it dies have a small moisture shield associated with it, and the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may be somewhat conducive over the next few days.  I’ll monitor this as well, to see if any convection begins to develop.

RAMSDIS METEOSAT FLOATER LOOP
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

Elsewhere, we are still pretty much in the same boat…analysis of the global models do not indicate any development over the next 7-10 days.

There is still noted discrepancy in the MJO index forecast between the GFS and ECMWF models.  IF the GFS is correct, we could get an upward motion phase of the MJO, which would tend to enhance convective activity in the Western Hemisphere.

GFS MJO INDEX FORECAST
NCPE_BC_phase_21m_full
ECMWF MJO INDEX FORECAST

ECMF_phase_51m_full
The GFS and CFS 200 mb velocity potential forecast still indicates favorable conditions during the second week of July.  I guess this is going to be a wait and see situation based on the discrepancies between the ECMWF and the other 2 models.  At least by then, we’ll know which has had the better forecast.

GFS 200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
gfs15day

CFS 200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
cfs
The following graphics show where development could occur in July, based on climatology.

JULY 1-10 (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGES)

7_1_10_nhc

JULY 11-20

7_11_20_nhc

JULY 21-31
7_21_31_nhc

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC…ISSUED 2:15 P.M. EDT…JUNE 28, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I don’t like all those “measles” in the Gulf for July. It looks like the African train is starting to gather up steam to pull out of the station again.

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