TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 27, 2016…2:40 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

Good day everyone!

First, I’ll start with just a “slight” revision to my Seasonal Tropical Storm/Hurricane forecast.  Given we have already experienced four storms in 2016, I don’t think it impossible to see at least 1o more systems develop from July-October.  In basing my best analog year as far as ONI values and trend on 1998, with the exception of the current warm PDO and lack of the Atlantic Ocean Tripole, the values and trend of the ONI for 2016, match 1998 almost perfectly (values for 1998 were only .1 lower than they are currently, with the trend matching perfectly thus far).  Based on this, 1998 saw a total of 14 named systems.  Thus I am making a change to one more named storm in the named storm line:

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14-16
TOTAL HURRICANES:        6-8
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3-4

CURRENT ONI CHART LINK
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

With that said, there really isn’t much to say, as analysis once again of the global models indicates no tropical development over the next 10 days.  The ECMWF and GGEM do indicate a possible small area of low pressure trying to take shape off the SEUS coast, however it appears to be baroclinic if it does come to fruition.

ECMWF
ecm_mslp_uv850_conus_10

ecm_mslp_uv850_conus_11
GGEM
cmc_precip_mslp_conus_37

The current NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page is showing a 50% probability of development near Panama within the 120-240 hour time period.  I am going to rule this out at the moment, seeing that the global models are not picking up on this.  Given the current uncertainty of where the MJO is forecast to be over the next 10 days, I may re-visit this, as the GFS 200 mb streamline forecast does indicate a favorable upper level pattern between 210-240 hours in the period, and the current 200 mb Velocity Potential anomalies indicate there may be upward motion in the atmosphere beginning around the second week of July.   The CFS and GFS have been somewhat consistent with this for about a week now, however the strongest values argue for potential development in the EPAC.

NCEP/EMC CYCLOGENESIS TRACKING 120-240 HOURS
genprob.4enscon.2016062706.altg.120_240
GFS/CFS 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
gfs15
cfs

Water Vapor Satellite imagery and current 200 mb velocity potential map still indicates large scale sinking air over the Atlantic basin.

NOAA ATLANTIC BASIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (IR AND WATER VAPOR)
avn-l

wv-l

CURRENT 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL MAPam_ir_monthly_1

For giggles and grins, I did some analysis of Africa this morning.  Based on rainfall totals, forecast rainfall totals for the next 10 days, and 10-40 cm layer soil moisture forecast, it doesn’t appear the West African continent, especially the Sahel, is going to be very wet.  So, we may see quite a bit of SAL this month, which really isn’t out of the realm of climatology, as my experience with numerous hurricane seasons has found July to have the most SAL and the worst outbreaks.  The rain and moisture you do notice, we want further north.  In order for this to occur, the Gulf of Guinea has to cool down, which has an effect on the monsoon trof, or ITCZ, shifting it further north over the continent.

AFRICAN 7 DAY RFE (RAINFALL ESTIMATES) PERIOD 20-27 JUN 1026
africa_rfe_day-7_wa_obs

AFRICA 10 DAY GFS RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST

gfs_total_precip_afr_41
GFS AFRICA 10 DAY SOIL MOISTURE FORECAST

gfs_soil40cm_afr_41

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 27, 2016…2:40 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you.

  2. Sharon Stanford says:

    Thanks Storm !

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s