TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good day everyone!
First, I’ll start with just a “slight” revision to my Seasonal Tropical Storm/Hurricane forecast. Given we have already experienced four storms in 2016, I don’t think it impossible to see at least 1o more systems develop from July-October. In basing my best analog year as far as ONI values and trend on 1998, with the exception of the current warm PDO and lack of the Atlantic Ocean Tripole, the values and trend of the ONI for 2016, match 1998 almost perfectly (values for 1998 were only .1 lower than they are currently, with the trend matching perfectly thus far). Based on this, 1998 saw a total of 14 named systems. Thus I am making a change to one more named storm in the named storm line:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14-16
TOTAL HURRICANES: 6-8
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3-4
CURRENT ONI CHART LINK
With that said, there really isn’t much to say, as analysis once again of the global models indicates no tropical development over the next 10 days. The ECMWF and GGEM do indicate a possible small area of low pressure trying to take shape off the SEUS coast, however it appears to be baroclinic if it does come to fruition.
The current NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page is showing a 50% probability of development near Panama within the 120-240 hour time period. I am going to rule this out at the moment, seeing that the global models are not picking up on this. Given the current uncertainty of where the MJO is forecast to be over the next 10 days, I may re-visit this, as the GFS 200 mb streamline forecast does indicate a favorable upper level pattern between 210-240 hours in the period, and the current 200 mb Velocity Potential anomalies indicate there may be upward motion in the atmosphere beginning around the second week of July. The CFS and GFS have been somewhat consistent with this for about a week now, however the strongest values argue for potential development in the EPAC.
Water Vapor Satellite imagery and current 200 mb velocity potential map still indicates large scale sinking air over the Atlantic basin.
For giggles and grins, I did some analysis of Africa this morning. Based on rainfall totals, forecast rainfall totals for the next 10 days, and 10-40 cm layer soil moisture forecast, it doesn’t appear the West African continent, especially the Sahel, is going to be very wet. So, we may see quite a bit of SAL this month, which really isn’t out of the realm of climatology, as my experience with numerous hurricane seasons has found July to have the most SAL and the worst outbreaks. The rain and moisture you do notice, we want further north. In order for this to occur, the Gulf of Guinea has to cool down, which has an effect on the monsoon trof, or ITCZ, shifting it further north over the continent.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS