TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 6:10 P.M…JUN. 26, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

Good day everyone!

I was pretty bored performing analysis today. The majority of the global models do not show any development over the next 7-1 0 days.  The only exception is the CMC GGEM which wants to develop a coastal/offshore low in around 4 1/2 days.  I’m not really sold on this at the moment.

GGEM 102 HOURS
GGEM.102
GGEM 114 HOURS
GGEM.114

Analysis of satellite loop imagery doesn’t really show  much in the way of convective activity.  Showers and Thunderstorm activity over the Honduras/Nicaragua area is being enhanced by an upper level low, noted in water vapor loop imagery. Water vapor loop imagery still shows the majority of the Atlantic Basin under the influence of dry air, especially notable over the central and eastern Atlantic.  This appears to be in response to a little heavier layer of SAL, in combination with the Azores/Bermuda high at 1036-1038 mb providing subsidence over the basin.  Click on the imagery for loops.

NOAA TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (WIDE VIEW)
avn-l

NOAA WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (WIDE VIEW)
wv-l

SAL TRUE COLOR SATELLITE
truecol

Looking at the forecast for the 200 mb Vertical Velocity Potential anomalies, modeling seems to have pushed the upward motion anomalies back by about a week.  The GFS still insists on the MJO index forecast being in phase 1 in about a week, while the ECMWF pretty much kills the signal after bringing out of phase 4, which is located over the Maritime Continent.  So, it’s going to be a wait and see option in whether or not the 200 mb Vertical Velocity Potential forecast is correct, which would back the GFS on the MJO index forecast, or whether or not the ECMWF has the better handle on the MJO.  In nay case, I’ll be taking a closer look at things around that time.

GFS VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
gfsmjo

Two things that somewhat concern me at the moment, one may change however.  The TCHP is more extensive and stronger compared to last season at this time.  Values indicate that if other conditions are favorable, the Caribbean Sea and western GOMEX can support a major hurricane and rapid intensification.  Upon extensive research that I conducted over the past few seasons, the threshold value for this appears to be 60+ j/kg.  The following graphics represent the Atlantic and Global values for 2015 and 2016, respectively:

TCHP JUN. 25, 2015
2015176at

2015176

TCHP JUN. 25, 2016
2016177at

2016177

The second item that may be of a concern, is the position of the Azores Bermuda ridge, or sub-tropical ridge, especially at 500 mb.  I have noted in my daily analyses, the subtropical ridge, with exception of some weekly fluctuations, has been centered more to the west, but mainly further south.  The mean last season seemed to keep it further north and east, more toward / over the Azores.  However if you look at the ECMWF, GFS, and GGEM 1000-500 mb thickness map 10 day forecast, the 500 mb level is represented by the color fill (pinks, red, etc).  Generally, during the season, the steering pattern changes come Aug.  IF we do not see any change for AUG/SEP, this type of setup could indicate more landfalls for the U.S. and Caribbean land masses.  BUT, let me point out, this all depends on where and when development would occur, how strong the system, and the actual orientation of the ridge/ trof pattern.

ECMWF
ECMWF500
GFS
GFS500
GGEM
GGEM500
I should have another update tomorrow, hopefully much earlier than today.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 6:10 P.M…JUN. 26, 2016

  1. Port Aransas Beach Bum says:

    I got a recent news-email from Sigma Xi (Honarary Scientific Research Soc.) referring to a Caribbean “Rossby Wave” which is very interesting. The website is:

    http://www.livescience.com/55174-weird-ocean-sound-heard-from-space.html

    I wonder if this very slow (120 day) cycle has any effect on “Tropical” weather ? They do state:
    ” As soon as the current leaves the Caribbean Sea, it enters the Gulf of Mexico and becomes the current in the Gulf Stream, the fast-moving and powerful Atlantic Ocean current that is a major part of the climate system. “

  2. Mike doll says:

    Thanks storm appreciate your time and synopsis that you put together for us

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