TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good day everyone!
I was pretty bored performing analysis today. The majority of the global models do not show any development over the next 7-1 0 days. The only exception is the CMC GGEM which wants to develop a coastal/offshore low in around 4 1/2 days. I’m not really sold on this at the moment.
Analysis of satellite loop imagery doesn’t really show much in the way of convective activity. Showers and Thunderstorm activity over the Honduras/Nicaragua area is being enhanced by an upper level low, noted in water vapor loop imagery. Water vapor loop imagery still shows the majority of the Atlantic Basin under the influence of dry air, especially notable over the central and eastern Atlantic. This appears to be in response to a little heavier layer of SAL, in combination with the Azores/Bermuda high at 1036-1038 mb providing subsidence over the basin. Click on the imagery for loops.
Looking at the forecast for the 200 mb Vertical Velocity Potential anomalies, modeling seems to have pushed the upward motion anomalies back by about a week. The GFS still insists on the MJO index forecast being in phase 1 in about a week, while the ECMWF pretty much kills the signal after bringing out of phase 4, which is located over the Maritime Continent. So, it’s going to be a wait and see option in whether or not the 200 mb Vertical Velocity Potential forecast is correct, which would back the GFS on the MJO index forecast, or whether or not the ECMWF has the better handle on the MJO. In nay case, I’ll be taking a closer look at things around that time.
Two things that somewhat concern me at the moment, one may change however. The TCHP is more extensive and stronger compared to last season at this time. Values indicate that if other conditions are favorable, the Caribbean Sea and western GOMEX can support a major hurricane and rapid intensification. Upon extensive research that I conducted over the past few seasons, the threshold value for this appears to be 60+ j/kg. The following graphics represent the Atlantic and Global values for 2015 and 2016, respectively:
The second item that may be of a concern, is the position of the Azores Bermuda ridge, or sub-tropical ridge, especially at 500 mb. I have noted in my daily analyses, the subtropical ridge, with exception of some weekly fluctuations, has been centered more to the west, but mainly further south. The mean last season seemed to keep it further north and east, more toward / over the Azores. However if you look at the ECMWF, GFS, and GGEM 1000-500 mb thickness map 10 day forecast, the 500 mb level is represented by the color fill (pinks, red, etc). Generally, during the season, the steering pattern changes come Aug. IF we do not see any change for AUG/SEP, this type of setup could indicate more landfalls for the U.S. and Caribbean land masses. BUT, let me point out, this all depends on where and when development would occur, how strong the system, and the actual orientation of the ridge/ trof pattern.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS