TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good evening everyone!
First, I see we had INVEST 95L, which I’d like to briefly touch on. The Tropical Wave I was tracking, east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed., had all the earmarks of heading into the peninsula, and into the EPAC, based on the steering pattern analyzed at that moment, as well as analysis of forecast steering maps. However, later that evening, it was noted a change had occurred in the steering pattern that evening, based on the 2100 UTC update. The setup at that time, indicated a weakness over the extreme northern portion of Mexico, and SW TX. Based on the WNW flow in the southern periphery of the ridge, and the NW flow on the NW periphery of the ridge, allowed for what became a distinct, mid level (500 mb) circulation formed by the area of strongest convection associated with the northern part of the wave axis, to head for the weakness in the ridge, hence entrance into the extreme southern portion of the BOC. INVEST 95L has since dissipated. Didn’t want you to think I fell asleep on this one….just wasn’t able to follow along because of work.
Elsewhere, analysis of global models this evening indicates no tropical development during the next 7 – 10 days. The GFS has since dropped its solution of development in the BOC, and having a hurricane onshore near the NOLA area by July 04.
Analysis of satellite loop imagery didn’t really display anything that caught my eye. A Tropical Wave was noted just rolling off the African coast which is seen in satellite loop imagery, and can be picked out in the TPW loop as well. However climatology dictates against any chance of development. In fact, water vapor loop imagery of the Atlantic basing indicates a lot of dry, sinking air over a majority of the basin. Even though wind shear is slightly below climatology, current vertical instability is well below climatology. This doesn’t surprise me at the moment, with the NAO being positive at the moment, and global models indicating a 1037 mb Bermuda/ Azores high. The high is definitely creating sinking air and drying out the Atlantic basin at the moment.
Mulling over other pieces of data from various sources, mainly regarding the MJO, some of the models indicate the MJO index to have a weak showing in Ocatant or “phase” 1, bordering phase 2 near end of the first week of July. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles are trending toward this, and the GFS and CFS velocity potential forecast still indicate upward motion in the western hemisphere approximately 05-10 Jul. time frame. One item of note, information from the CPC Global Tropical Hazards and Benefits Outlook indicates the GFS may be too fast in its assessment of the MJO, with the ECMWF being more in line with the MJO propagation speed. The assessment indicates the GFS may be picking up on a Kelvin Wave, which may allow for some sort of development in the BOC by week 2…however the forecast has been trending more toward the west Mexican coast. From the CPC Weekly MJO update:
Extratropical impacts of the MJO on the U.S. are likely to be limited. While an MJO event over the Maritime Continent is usually consistent with suppressed tropical cyclone activity over the Western Hemisphere, Kelvin Wave activity may contribute to tropical cyclone formation near the Bay of Campeche during Week 2.
So, based on what I’ve looked at in my analysis, I am really not expecting anything during the next 7-10 days, and wouldn’t look for any increase in convective activity until we see if we do get some upward motion from the MJO, the NAO head back toward negative, the sub-tropical ridge weaken (which would coincide with the NAO going negative), or if the Kelvin wave mentioned does provide some shot at possible development.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS