TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 7:40 P.M. EDT…JUN. 25, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

Good evening everyone!

First, I see we had INVEST 95L, which I’d like to briefly touch on.  The Tropical Wave I was tracking, east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed., had all the earmarks of heading into the peninsula, and into the EPAC, based on the steering pattern analyzed at that moment, as well as analysis of forecast steering maps.  However, later that evening, it was noted a change had occurred in the steering pattern that evening, based on the 2100 UTC update.  The setup at that time, indicated a weakness over the extreme northern portion of Mexico, and SW TX.  Based on the WNW flow in the southern periphery of the ridge, and the NW flow on the NW periphery of the ridge, allowed for what became a distinct, mid level (500 mb) circulation formed by the area of strongest convection associated with the northern part of the wave axis, to head for the weakness in the ridge, hence entrance into the extreme southern portion of the BOC.  INVEST 95L has since dissipated.  Didn’t want you to think I fell asleep on this one….just wasn’t able to follow along because of work.

Elsewhere, analysis of global models this evening indicates no tropical development during the next 7 – 10 days.  The GFS has since dropped its solution of development in the BOC, and having a hurricane onshore near the NOLA area by July 04.

Analysis of satellite loop imagery didn’t really display anything that caught my eye.  A Tropical Wave was noted just rolling off the African coast which is seen in satellite loop imagery, and can be picked out in the TPW loop as well.  However climatology dictates against any chance of development.  In fact, water vapor loop imagery of the Atlantic basing indicates a lot of dry, sinking air over a majority of the basin.  Even though wind shear is slightly below climatology, current vertical instability is well below climatology.  This doesn’t surprise me at the moment, with the NAO being positive at the moment, and global models indicating a 1037 mb Bermuda/ Azores high.  The high is definitely creating sinking air and drying out the Atlantic basin at the moment.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (WIDE VIEW)
avn-l

TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
wv-l

EUMETSAT AFRICAN SATELLITE IMAGERY (LINKED)
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color-all

TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) LOOP (LINKED)
latest72hrs

CURRENT TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY
ts_al_tat_THDV

NAO ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
nao.sprd2

NAO.ENSEMBLE

Mulling over other pieces of data from various sources, mainly regarding the MJO, some of the models indicate the MJO index to have a weak showing in Ocatant or “phase” 1, bordering phase 2 near end of the first week of July.  The GFS and ECMWF ensembles are trending toward this, and the GFS and CFS velocity potential forecast still indicate upward motion in the western hemisphere approximately 05-10 Jul. time frame.  One item of note, information from the CPC Global Tropical Hazards and Benefits Outlook indicates the GFS may be too fast in its assessment of the MJO, with the ECMWF being more in line with the MJO propagation speed.  The assessment indicates the GFS may be picking up on a Kelvin Wave, which may allow for some sort of development in the BOC by week 2…however the forecast has been trending more toward the west Mexican coast.  From the CPC Weekly MJO update:

Extratropical impacts of the MJO on the U.S. are likely to be limited. While an MJO event over the Maritime Continent is usually consistent with suppressed tropical cyclone activity over the Western Hemisphere, Kelvin Wave activity may contribute to tropical cyclone formation near the Bay of Campeche during Week 2.

GLOBAL TROPICAL HAZARDS AND BENEFIT OUTLOOK GRAPHIC (LINKED)
gth_full_update

GFS AND ECMWF MJO INDEX FORECAST
NCPE_phase_21m_full
ECMF_phase_51m_full

GFS VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST
gfs15

CFS VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST
cfs

So, based on what I’ve looked at in my analysis, I am really not expecting anything during the next 7-10 days, and wouldn’t look for any increase in convective activity until we see if we do get some upward motion from the MJO, the NAO head back toward negative, the sub-tropical ridge weaken (which would coincide with the NAO going negative), or if the Kelvin wave mentioned does provide some shot at possible development.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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