MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 3:35 P.M. EDT…JUN. 22, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

Good day everyone!

First, we’ll begin with the Severe Weather Threat for today.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms across small parts of IA/WI TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA AND OH…

There is an ENHANCED risk across the MIDWEST/OH VALLEY…

There is a SLIGHT risk from the UPPER MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS…

There is a MARGINAL risk from the UPPER MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS AND VA/CAROLINAS…

From the SPC:

…SUMMARY…
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME GREATER THAN 70 MILES PER HOUR ALONG WITH TORNADOES AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN…NORTHERN ILLINOIS…SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN…NORTHERN TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS
day1otlk_1630

day1probotlk_1630_tornProbability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point

day1probotlk_1630_windProbability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

day1probotlk_1630_hailProbability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SPC PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED TO MP4 AUDIO BRIEFING)
swo_201606221649

Based on information in the SPC outlook, damaging thunderstorm winds, tornadoes, and very large hail will be in play for the moderate risk area, with some extension into the enhanced risk area.  Upon completing my analysis of recent forecast soundings using F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast software, various indices indicate that the probability of tornadoes should be the greatest within the SPC 10% probability area.  However, based on analysis of these indices, I have extended the probability more toward the SE, and cannot rule out the possibility of isolated, strong, long track tornadoes within the following entire outline, albeit the greatest chance for significant, long tracked tornadoes should lie within the SPC 10% tornado probability area.  I chose to utilize the output from the NAM-WRF as the indices evaluated matched closer to SPC parameters vice the RAP model solutions.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5 namtorday1

Some of the following index values were noted in analysis of the forecast soundings:

LIFTED INDEX: -8 t0 -12
CRAVEN-BROOKS: 50,000 to 80, 000
SBCAPE: 3000 to 4000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2500 to 3000 j/kg
EHI: 7 to 9
STP: 6 to 12

Given the values of CAPE and LIFTED INDEX, these support large, damaging hail, while all of the combined tend to indicate the probability of significant, long tracked tornadoes.

These storms will have plenty of moisture to work with, as forecast dewpoints at the time of analysis ranged 70F to 75F.

I look for things to begin to deteriorate probably within the next 2-3 hours over the risk areas, and into the later portion of the evening.

Residents within ALL risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS statements, particularly over the enhanced and moderate risk portion.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

The following graphics are linked for you to click on to retrieve up to date information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LINK
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

An area of disturbed weather in the extreme western Caribbean Sea is associated with a Tropical Wave moving toward the west at around 15-20 mph.  This wave has had a slight increase in convection during the past few hours.  The enhancement of convection is occurring due to the upper level low to its west, providing a decent diffluent flow aloft, aiding in divergence.  The most current wind shear product from CIMSS does indicate that an upper level anticyclone appears to be developing over the area, however over the Honduran landmass.  Current steering layer flow and forecast steering maps indicate this wave should continue to move toward the west, to slightly north of west, and should not enter the GOMEX.  At the moment, I do expect this wave to continue westward into the EPAC.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

rgb-l

CURRENT SHALLOW LAYER STEERING MEAN
wg8dlm1

Elsewhere, the GFS is showing development in the BOC beginning in about 10 days (initialization).  A low from over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast by the GFS to move into the BOC, and then move toward the N-NNE.  As it does, the GFS strengthens this “low” into a CAT 1 Hurricane, moving into the NOLA area.  The most recent run of the FIM 8 model indicates development as well, but moves a system further west, and into Texas. Of note…the FIM model does receive input from the GFS.

GFS
gfs.240
gfs.288
gfs.336
FIM 8
FIM8.wind_10m_f246

FIM8.wind_10m_f300

At this time, even though the GFS has been consistent, I am not to much sold on this solution, as I am waiting to see if the remaining global models come onboard with the scenario, especially the ECMWF.  Now, if this going to come to fruition, the ECMWF may not pick up on it, until we get closer to the mid range forecast time frame, which begins at 10 days (240 hours) out.  Right now, the GFS solution is geared more toward the longer range, beginning at 240 hours, out to 384 hours.  In fact, analysis of the current GFS 200 mb streamline forecast does not support the models solution of a CAT 1 Hurricane, given the 200 mb anticyclone is centered over the Yucatan Channel.  This setup would pretty much create a sheared environment over the system.  So, although I am not saying development isn’t possible,  the bottom line is, let’s wait for more model support and consistency, which I will be looking at next week, and monitoring that area very closely.  I work the remainder of this week, so I will not be updating again until sometime late Sun. afternoon.

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
gfs.200.streamline

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 3:35 P.M. EDT…JUN. 22, 2016

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. You’re always there when we need you. Echoing Dellamom on family

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I will keep posted and choose to believe that the GFS will change its mind. Continuing prayers to you and yours.

  3. grannyMS says:

    Thank you, Storm!

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