TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EDT…JUN. 21, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

Good day everyone!

Well, I see we had DANIELLE develop and move inland over Mexico while I was away.  Wish I could have been on for her.  Maybe our Lord planned it that way (for her to enter Mexico), so I could handle the bulk of the season.

In any event, I appreciate the prayers and kind thoughts from EVERYONE here.  I had planned on coming back home Saturday.  However, my Stepfather’s condition deteriorated during the week.  He was not only unresponsive and had pancreatitis, but while we were there, his kidneys and liver were failing, and on Saturday, we learned he also had bacteria growing in his lungs.  As per his advanced directive, and after meeting as a family, we decided to move him to the hospice unit, in which they would remove the breathing tube on Sunday, and allow him to pass.  While traveling to the hospital in Atlanta on Sunday, before they even took the tube out (they were waiting on us to perform this), he passed away on his own, 10 min. prior to us arriving at the hospital.  At least he is no longer in pain, and I am thankful to God for this.

Analysis of the global models this morning indicates no tropical development over the course of the next 7-10 days.

An area of disturbed weather is noted in the central and South central Caribbean Sea, and is associated with a tropical wave which was located near 75W earlier this morning.  Cloudiness and shower activity associated with this wave is being enhanced by upper level divergence associated with the upper level flow being generated by the TUTT located over the Western Caribbean/Yucatan Channel area, which is seen in the current CIMSS wind shear product.  Two other tropical waves are within the ITCZ, and were located near 48W and 37W, respectively.  I do not expect development of any of these waves.  Based on the current steering flow, and analysis of forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, I expect the wave in the Caribbean Sea to crossover into the EPAC during the next 48-72 hours.

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC  SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

CIMSS CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING FLOW
wg8dlm1

At the moment, the Atlantic Basin, GOMEX and Caribbean are not really all that favorable for development, as there is no MJO signal over the Western Hemisphere.  Sinking air (denoted by the BROWN contours) from the 200 mb level, downward, is noted in the recent 200 mb Vertical Velocity Anomalies map from the Climate Prediction Center.  This indicates either UPWARD or DOWNWARD vertical velocity, or, rising or sinking motion in the atmosphere.  Upward motion provides “lift” in the atmosphere, which in turn allows for convective development.  Downward motion, or “sinking” air compresses and warms as it sinks, in turn “drying out” the atmosphere (no moisture, no clouds).

CPC 200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY ANOMALIES MAP
am_ir_monthly_1

At the moment, this would explain some of the lack of instability over the Tropical Atlantic, which is currently below the climatological norm.  Wind shear on the other hand, has been below climatology.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC INSTABILITY GRAPH
ts_al_tat_THDV
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIND SHEAR GRAPH
ts_al_tat_VSHD
It appears we could see an increased chance of convective activity beginning around the start, or near the end of the first week of July.  This depends on which models is correct in the forecast of the MJO.  The GFS and CFS models indicate an upward motion phase around July 01-July 08 in their current forecast.  The ECMWF and majority of the other dynamic models keep the MJO in Octants 4 and 5 which is the Maritime Continent / extreme Western Pacific area, pretty much where it is located at the moment.  We’ll have to keep watching to see which models are in fact correct.  Seems to me thus far, the ECMWF has had the better handle on the MJO forecast, but again, things change.

GFS VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST (GREEN INDICATES UPWARD MOTION)
gfs.2mjo
CFS VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
cfs

ECMWF MJO INDEX FORECAST
ECMF_phase_51m_full
In the meantime, there has been a significant warming in the MDR and GOMEX since the beginning of this month.  Based on my past forecasting experience, I feel the warming in the MDR can be attributed to a combination of a slightly negative NAO for most of this month, and albeit the SAL is present, it has not appeared to be extremely dominant, possibly allowing a little more insolation to reach the ocean surface, at least during the past 5 days.  You’ll note the dust for the past 5 days in the animation, as well as mid level water vapor indicating the atmosphere has not been too terribly dry.

SST ANOMALY MAP FOR JUNE 02, 2016
anomw.6.2.2016

SST ANOMALY MAP FOR JUNE 20, 2016
anomw.6.20.2016

NAO ENSEMBLES FORECAST
nao.sprd2

SAL TRUE COLOR 5 DAY SATELLITE ANIMATION (CLICK FOR ANIMATIONS)
truecolZ-4

MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
wvmid-4

In any event, I will be monitoring all of this as usual, and should be back updating late Sunday afternoons or early evening, followed bu updates on Mon-Wed.

IF nothing significant shows up in the tropics, I will be focusing on severe weather tomorrow afternoon, as the SPC is calling for a MODERATE risk of severe thunderstorms in the current Day 2 Outlook:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_0600

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EDT…JUN. 21, 2016

  1. Monty says:

    Sorry Storm. I didn’t get that far to his death the first. So sorry. Stupid me

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. So sorry to hear about Stepfather. Hoping and Praying he recovers.

    Looks like that Ridge of high pressure did us a favor with Danielle.

  3. Theresa says:

    Sorry for your families loss. From what I read he died on Father’s day. That would be awesome to meet God on Fathers day! What a party they would be having in heaven!

  4. stuffunee says:

    Sorry for your loss, Storm.

  5. dellamom says:

    My sympathies for your family’s loss, Storm, and thankful prayers that your stepfather is at peace. I guess we are in a wait-and-watch phase right now, which sure beats the batten-down-the-hatches phase, but isn’t as interesting as tracking fishes. Your tools have stood us in good stead, but it is nice to have you back, sir.

  6. grannyMS says:

    Prayers to you and your family, Storm.
    I am glad your step dad left on his own and is no longer in pain.

  7. Jacob Cvetan says:

    God Bless and prayers for your family!

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