TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 7:45 P.M. EDT…JUN. 12, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

Good evening everyone!

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I will be leaving on Tuesday for my family emergency.  We plan on heading back Saturday, so I should have another update 1 week from today.

Satellite imagery didn’t show anything of concern to me this afternoon/evening.

ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

Analysis of global models today seem to indicate models are in fair agreement of developing a low off the U.S. East coast, but are split on location and timing, but the current forecast time frame seems to be around 5-7 days from now.  Looks like the GFS is the most robust with a possible tropical depression/ storm, and the ECMWF indicates a larger low, but showing a pressure of 998 mb, and GGEM showing a broad trof.  I cannot rule out development yet, as this appears to be another upcoming trof split, in which some of the models indicate a cutoff low at 500 mb.  The ECMWF does indicate a significant lowering of pressures in the 500 mb height anomaly map.  IF this does occur, it could take some time for it to transition to tropical, as upper level winds may be initially marginal for development, but quickly become unfavorable for further development. At the present, this would lead me to believe something sub-tropical.  When I return, I will be revisiting this, and reanalyze the situation.

GFS
gfs_mslp_uv10m_east_26

gfs_mslp_uv10m_east_30ECMWF
ecm_mslp_uv850_east_7
GGEM
cmc_mslp_uv10m_conus_23

ECMWF 500 MB ANOMALY FORECAST
ecm_z500_anom_east_8

Elsewhere, the GGEM, GFS and FIM 9 models are hinting at something developing in the GOMEX 8-10 days out, with the CMC and FIM being the more bullish of the models.  The ECMWF is not showing this in  it’s current run.

GFS
gfs_mslp_uv10m_mex_33
GGEM
cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_30

cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_34

cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_35


FIM 9
FIM9wind_10m_f204

While this is not impossible, I’m going to have to see further model runs, (which will have to be when I return) for model agreement, and consistency.  Right now I’m having doubts on this, as a negating factor, based on analysis of the MJO forecast, is a lack thereof (no upward vertical motion).

The previous wind shear forecast from the GFS indicated earlier that the upper level flow would not have been very conducive for development.  However, the 18Z run indicates the upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over the Yucatan peninsula by day 7, is forecast to move over the southern GOMEX by day 8-9.

GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
gfs.200.streamline
gfs.200.streamline2

I will be monitoring all of this when I get back, and will hopefully be here in time for both possibilities.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected for the next 5-7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 7:45 P.M. EDT…JUN. 12, 2016

  1. Port Aransas Beach Bum says:

    Anything that sneaks into the GOM via the BOC is bad news in this area ! Nothing (serious) has happened (right here) in the last 35-40 years. We just keep our fingers crossed, our insurance paid up and our ply-wood handy! And, we pray for our friends, neighbors, and even our enemies! Thanks, Storm. – Port Aransas Beach Bum

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hope all goes well. You and family are in my Prayers. A safe return my friend!

    With El Nino officially gone and a much more relaxed shear in Caribbean…guessing things could get a bit more interesting for us in GOMEX?

  3. originallt says:

    Good luck with your family situation, prayers to you all.

  4. Port Aransas Beachbum says:

    I hate to hear about “family emergencies.” May yours turn out to be minimal, and if not, may The Good Lord give you the strength to “weather the storm.” We need you, Storm. Keep up the good work! – Port Aransas Beach Bum

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