TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good evening everyone!
Did you know, if you go to the right side of the page, there is a subscribe link. This will let you get an automatic email update when I post a new forecast.
I will be leaving on Tuesday for my family emergency. We plan on heading back Saturday, so I should have another update 1 week from today.
Satellite imagery didn’t show anything of concern to me this afternoon/evening.
Analysis of global models today seem to indicate models are in fair agreement of developing a low off the U.S. East coast, but are split on location and timing, but the current forecast time frame seems to be around 5-7 days from now. Looks like the GFS is the most robust with a possible tropical depression/ storm, and the ECMWF indicates a larger low, but showing a pressure of 998 mb, and GGEM showing a broad trof. I cannot rule out development yet, as this appears to be another upcoming trof split, in which some of the models indicate a cutoff low at 500 mb. The ECMWF does indicate a significant lowering of pressures in the 500 mb height anomaly map. IF this does occur, it could take some time for it to transition to tropical, as upper level winds may be initially marginal for development, but quickly become unfavorable for further development. At the present, this would lead me to believe something sub-tropical. When I return, I will be revisiting this, and reanalyze the situation.
Elsewhere, the GGEM, GFS and FIM 9 models are hinting at something developing in the GOMEX 8-10 days out, with the CMC and FIM being the more bullish of the models. The ECMWF is not showing this in it’s current run.
While this is not impossible, I’m going to have to see further model runs, (which will have to be when I return) for model agreement, and consistency. Right now I’m having doubts on this, as a negating factor, based on analysis of the MJO forecast, is a lack thereof (no upward vertical motion).
The previous wind shear forecast from the GFS indicated earlier that the upper level flow would not have been very conducive for development. However, the 18Z run indicates the upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over the Yucatan peninsula by day 7, is forecast to move over the southern GOMEX by day 8-9.
I will be monitoring all of this when I get back, and will hopefully be here in time for both possibilities.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected for the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS