TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 8:40 P.M. EDT…JUN. 08, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: LOW (10%)

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

Good evening everyone!

A note to those whom follow my site.  In light of my Stepfather’s condition, my family and I intend to leave for Alabama on Tuesday.  My boss put me on the work schedule for Monday.  I will try to have an update on Sunday, then will be out the remainder of the week.  I will resume forecasting upon my return. Thanks for your understanding.

An area of disturbed weather that has moved from the Yucatan Channel to the western tip of Cuba, has been noted by the NHC.  The NHC has designated a 10% (LOW) probability of development during the next 5 days.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l.GOMEX

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TWO
two_atl_5d0

This area of disturbed weather looked much healthier during the past 48 hours.  It has since moved out of the more favorable area, where an upper level anticyclone has been for the past 2 days.  This will continue to move toward the NE, and I am not really looking for any development.  I will continue to monitor this for any changes.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
wg8shr

Elsewhere,  global models are not really indicating any type of development during the next 5-7 days.

While we haven’t had much of an MJO signal in the Western Hemisphere, there has been some persistent upward vertical velocities, per the NOAA 200 mb Vertical Velocity Potential Anomalies map, indicated by the green contours, indicating the amount of divergence in the upper atmosphere.  This aided in the development of both Bonnie and Colin.

200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
am_ir_monthly_1

Speaking of the MJO, the forecast seems to call for our part of the world to be in a neutral sort of MJO state for the next 2-3 weeks, noted in the GEFS spatial OLR anomalies forecast.  It may be possible we don’t see another uptick in activity until July.  This will be revisited however, as the rapid demise of El Nino may have some affect on the RMM1 and RMM2 modeling data.

GEFS OLR ANOMALY FORECAST
spatial_olrmap_full

I am not looking for development in the Caribbean anytime soon, due to increased trades over the Caribbean.  The following is the current ECMWF 850 mb wind speed and MSLP forecast map.  When you notice the yellow shadings, indicating higher wind speeds, it doesn’t allow for air to pile up in the Caribbean.  The opposite occurs, as wind or energy is pulled out of the Caribbean in the western portion.  So when you pretty much see yellow on the ECMWF in the E. Caribbean, development is pretty much not likely.

ECMWF 850 MB WINDS FORECAST
ecm_mslp_uv850_mex_4

ecm_mslp_uv850_mex_9

Elsewhere, stability over the Tropical Atlantic is well below normal.  This is most likely due to strong subsidence over the Atlantic, due to a large high building in, which one can notice in water vapor loop imagery (note the dry air).

NW ATLANTIC WATER VAPOR LOOP
wv-l

Seeing we may have a quite period now, this would be a great time to ensure you have a preparedness plan and evacuation plan.  This site has Preparedness information links on the right column of the page under “links”.

I will talk to everyone upon my return.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 8:40 P.M. EDT…JUN. 08, 2016

  1. Prayers and blessing to your family.

  2. originallt says:

    Prayers for your family.

  3. dellamom says:

    Prayers to your family, Storm, and safe travel wishes.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Best wishes for your Stepfather and all family.

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