TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: LOW (10%)
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good evening everyone!
A note to those whom follow my site. In light of my Stepfather’s condition, my family and I intend to leave for Alabama on Tuesday. My boss put me on the work schedule for Monday. I will try to have an update on Sunday, then will be out the remainder of the week. I will resume forecasting upon my return. Thanks for your understanding.
An area of disturbed weather that has moved from the Yucatan Channel to the western tip of Cuba, has been noted by the NHC. The NHC has designated a 10% (LOW) probability of development during the next 5 days.
This area of disturbed weather looked much healthier during the past 48 hours. It has since moved out of the more favorable area, where an upper level anticyclone has been for the past 2 days. This will continue to move toward the NE, and I am not really looking for any development. I will continue to monitor this for any changes.
Elsewhere, global models are not really indicating any type of development during the next 5-7 days.
While we haven’t had much of an MJO signal in the Western Hemisphere, there has been some persistent upward vertical velocities, per the NOAA 200 mb Vertical Velocity Potential Anomalies map, indicated by the green contours, indicating the amount of divergence in the upper atmosphere. This aided in the development of both Bonnie and Colin.
Speaking of the MJO, the forecast seems to call for our part of the world to be in a neutral sort of MJO state for the next 2-3 weeks, noted in the GEFS spatial OLR anomalies forecast. It may be possible we don’t see another uptick in activity until July. This will be revisited however, as the rapid demise of El Nino may have some affect on the RMM1 and RMM2 modeling data.
I am not looking for development in the Caribbean anytime soon, due to increased trades over the Caribbean. The following is the current ECMWF 850 mb wind speed and MSLP forecast map. When you notice the yellow shadings, indicating higher wind speeds, it doesn’t allow for air to pile up in the Caribbean. The opposite occurs, as wind or energy is pulled out of the Caribbean in the western portion. So when you pretty much see yellow on the ECMWF in the E. Caribbean, development is pretty much not likely.
ECMWF 850 MB WINDS FORECAST
Elsewhere, stability over the Tropical Atlantic is well below normal. This is most likely due to strong subsidence over the Atlantic, due to a large high building in, which one can notice in water vapor loop imagery (note the dry air).
Seeing we may have a quite period now, this would be a great time to ensure you have a preparedness plan and evacuation plan. This site has Preparedness information links on the right column of the page under “links”.
I will talk to everyone upon my return.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS