TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: POST TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: NONE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: NONE
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good day everyone!
A note to those whom follow my site. I may have to go out of town next week or the week after, as my Stepdad who just had his esophagus removed, and procedure to attach the stomach, has become somewhat unresponsive, and now has pancreatitis. The surgery was due to the esophageal cancer he had. The esophageal cancer didn’t come back, but a repair was needed to the area. Mom called last night with the new, not so good news. Thus, I may not update for a week sometime this month. If conditions change, I will let you know.
Tropical Storm COLIN was designated Post Tropical by the NHC as of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory. The following information was available on COLIN:
2:00 PM EDT Tue Jun 7
Location: 35.3°N 74.7°W
Moving: NE at 38 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
COLIN continues to race to the NE. Analysis of forecast steering maps indicates this motion should continue over the next 72 hours, and I concur with the NHC forecast track, which is pretty much in the middle of the guidance package.
Current satellite loop imagery does indicate the LLC of COLIN has become extremely elongated, and not discernible, hence has lost his Tropical Characteristics. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph, and this increase is due to baroclinic forcing.
Based on this, I concur with the NHC forecast intensity. There really isn’t too much more to say regarding COLIN, as he should be well away from the U.S. during the next 24-36 hours. I do not intend an update this evening on COLIN, and will try to have another update tomorrow, if warranted.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 07/1500Z 34.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0000Z 36.9N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z 41.0N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 51.5N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 53.5N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Elsewhere, I am casually monitoring some shower and thunderstorm activity near the Yucatan Channel, and Tropical Depression 1E (EPAC). Shower activity near the Yucatan Channel has become clustered over the past few hours, however analysis of current vorticity maps indicates no appreciable vorticity associated over the area. Visible and RGB satellite loop imagery indicates a notable outflow boundary, which indicates some dry air intrusion.
I will continue to monitor this area today, as there is an upper level anticyclone over the area at the moment, which is currently forecast to move over the BOC by 72 hours.
Tropical Depression 1E, located just south of the Mexican coastline is moving slowly to the north. I will be monitoring this for crossover mischief in the GOMEX during the next 48-72 hours. Current forecast scenario is for the depression to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Upper level winds are currently forecast to be somewhat favorable over the BOC in about 72 hours, so I will watch this closley during this time period.
A Tropical Wave I was monitoring in the E. Caribbean Sea, has pretty much succumbed to wind shear, as it approaches the TUTT axis.
Elsewhere, the CMC GGEM is once again an outlier, indicating a low forming off the FL. west coast, crossing the peninsula, then strengthening in the Atlantic. I have to rule this out at the moment, as wind shear is forecast to be unfavorable for any development.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS