POST TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN / DISTURBED WEATHER W. CARIBBEAN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…JUN. 07, 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: POST TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: NONE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: NONE
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 2

Good day everyone!

A note to those whom follow my site.  I may have to go out of town next week or the week after, as my Stepdad who just had his esophagus removed, and procedure to attach the stomach, has become somewhat unresponsive, and now has pancreatitis.  The surgery was due to the esophageal cancer he had.  The esophageal cancer didn’t come back, but a repair was needed to the area.  Mom called last night with the new, not so good news.  Thus, I may not update for a week sometime this month.  If conditions change, I will let you know.

Tropical Storm COLIN was designated Post Tropical by the NHC as of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory.  The following information was available on COLIN:

2:00 PM EDT Tue Jun 7
Location: 35.3°N 74.7°W
Moving: NE at 38 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

COLIN continues to race to the NE.  Analysis of forecast steering maps indicates this motion should continue over the next 72 hours, and I concur with the NHC forecast track, which is pretty much in the middle of the guidance package.

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
HURREVAC COLIN

HURREVAC COLIN.ERROR

Current satellite loop imagery does indicate the LLC of COLIN has become extremely elongated, and not discernible, hence has lost his Tropical Characteristics.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph, and this increase is due to baroclinic forcing.

COLIN FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0-lalo

rgb0-lalo

Based on this, I concur with the NHC forecast intensity.  There really isn’t too much more to say regarding COLIN, as he should be well away from the U.S. during the next 24-36 hours.  I do not intend an update this evening on COLIN, and will try to have another update tomorrow, if warranted.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 07/1500Z 34.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0000Z 36.9N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z 41.0N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 51.5N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 53.5N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z…Absorbed

Elsewhere, I am casually monitoring some shower and thunderstorm activity near the Yucatan Channel, and Tropical Depression 1E (EPAC).  Shower activity near the Yucatan Channel has become clustered over the past few hours, however analysis of current vorticity maps indicates no appreciable vorticity associated over the area.  Visible and RGB satellite loop imagery indicates a notable outflow boundary, which indicates some dry air intrusion.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2

I will continue to monitor this area today, as there is an upper level anticyclone over the area at the moment, which is currently forecast to move over the BOC by 72 hours.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
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Tropical Depression 1E, located just south of the Mexican coastline is moving slowly to the north.  I will be monitoring this for crossover mischief in the GOMEX during the next 48-72 hours.  Current forecast scenario is for the depression to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.  Upper level winds are currently forecast to be somewhat favorable over the BOC in about 72 hours, so I will watch this closley during this time period.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
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A Tropical Wave I was monitoring in the E. Caribbean Sea, has pretty much succumbed to wind shear, as it approaches the TUTT axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
CARIBBEAN.avn-l

Elsewhere, the CMC GGEM is once again an outlier, indicating a low forming off the FL. west coast, crossing the peninsula, then strengthening in the Atlantic.  I have to rule this out at the moment, as wind shear is forecast to be unfavorable for any development.

CMC GGEM
cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_6
cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_8

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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12 Responses to POST TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN / DISTURBED WEATHER W. CARIBBEAN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…JUN. 07, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    Praying for your family, Storm. Thank you for what you do for us, but as has been said many times on this site, family comes first. I hope you fared well through Colin and will be keeping an eye on the Gulf, thanks to your information.

  2. dkmac says:

    Prayers for your stepdad, Storm.

  3. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm we will pray for your step dad to be healed and get better family comes hang in there buddy.

  4. Hank says:

    sorry storm about you stepdad. hope all goes well.. keep us up to date.. god bless.

  5. grannyMS says:

    Sorry to hear about your stepdad, Storm. You and your family are in my thoughts and prayers.

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