TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…JUN. 06, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TROPICAL STORM COLIN

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: NONE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: IN EFFECT
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S.LANDFALLS: 1

Good day everyone!

Tropical Storm COLIN continues top move toward the NNE at a much faster speed this morning.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on COLIN:

10:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 6
Location: 27.0°N 87.0°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65 in
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC GRAPHICAL TWO (LINKED TO NHC WEBSITE)
two_atl_2d0
HURREVAC NHC TRACKING CHARTS
HURREVAC COLIN

HURREVAC COLIN.ERROR

NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/061533.shtml?

http://www.weather.gov/hti/

Analysis of satellite loop imagery (various channels) indicates COLIN is a sheared mess.  The broad LLC is displaced quite a distance west, from the heavy convection in the eastern GOMEX.  Analysis of the current wind shear product shows COLIN under approximately 40 knots of shear from the SW.  The COC never did tuck under the convection as I thought of the slim chance it may.  Thus, as in my previous discussions, COLIN was not able to take advantage of slightly more favorable conditions further east.  Based on the current and forecast wind shear, COLIN should remain Status Quo as far as strength.  Based on the fact COLIN is forecast to become extra-tropical in about 48 after crossing the FL. peninsula, the transition should allow for an increase in sustained winds, due to baroclinic forcing.  Based on this analysis, I concur with the NHC forecast intensity.

NOAA FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY TS COLIN
avn0-lalo

rgb0-lalo

Tropical Storm Warnings still remain in effect.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch from North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Indian Pass to Englewood * Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Colin.

Additional warnings or watches may be required for parts of this area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

NHC WATCH/WARNINGS MAP
145701R_sm

Based on information contained in the Forecast Discussion from NHC, the western Florida Peninsula in the warning area should begin to experience higher winds and heavier rainfall sometime SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  Please visit the NWS Hazard and Warnings display by clicking on your area of interest, and heed any local NWS Statements and/or warnings.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP KTBW AND KTLH
TBW.N0Q.20160606.1548

TLH.N0Q.20160606.1548

STORMSURF FORECAST SEA HEIGHT, SURF HEIGHT, AND WIND VELOCITY
gom_height_12hr
gom_wave_12hr

gom_wind_12hr

Analysis of current and forecast steering products indicates COLIN should continue NNE for approximately the next 12 hours, with a turn toward the NE later tonight.  The center of COLIN should make landfall sometime tonight, my best guesstimate, around 8-10 p.m.  COLIN should be along the SC coast by Tuesday morning, and will begin to accelerate NE and be out of the picture by Wednesday.  I concur with the NHC forecast track, and it is inline with the 12Z Dynamic Model guidance, which is very well clustered.  The information from the G IV (Gulfstream 4) aircraft must have made it into the models.  Given the forecast seems very certain, and no significant changes are expected, I will not be updating this evening (need a little break), but intend on updating sometime tomorrow.

COLIN 12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
COLIN.12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

Elsewhere, analysis of global models do not indicate any other development during the next 7 days, with the exception of the CMC GGEM being the outlier, indicating a low in the GOMEX in a few days.  I have to kind of rule this out at the moment, as the upper level pattern and wind shear in that area of the GOMEX may not be favorable for any development.  I will however, be monitoring the EPAC system closest to central America for any crossover mischief during this time, albeit the majority of the global models dissipate this once it moves inland over Mexico.

CMC GGEM
cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_15

cmc_mslp_uv10m_mex_20

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…JUN. 06, 2016…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Get some rest and vitamins. June 6 and already at “C”!

  2. Teresa says:

    Thanks, once again Storm! Looks like it won’t be much more than a bother for southern coastal NC! Time to turn the sprinklers off for a few days! Stay safe everyone!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s