TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: TROPICAL STORM COLIN
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: NONE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: IN EFFECT
HURRICANE WATCH: NONE
HURRICANE WARNING: NONE
Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE TALLY:
TOTAL STORMS: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
Good day everyone!
Tropical Storm COLIN continues top move toward the NNE at a much faster speed this morning. As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on COLIN:
10:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 6
Location: 27.0°N 87.0°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
NHC GRAPHICAL TWO (LINKED TO NHC WEBSITE)
HURREVAC NHC TRACKING CHARTS
NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS
Analysis of satellite loop imagery (various channels) indicates COLIN is a sheared mess. The broad LLC is displaced quite a distance west, from the heavy convection in the eastern GOMEX. Analysis of the current wind shear product shows COLIN under approximately 40 knots of shear from the SW. The COC never did tuck under the convection as I thought of the slim chance it may. Thus, as in my previous discussions, COLIN was not able to take advantage of slightly more favorable conditions further east. Based on the current and forecast wind shear, COLIN should remain Status Quo as far as strength. Based on the fact COLIN is forecast to become extra-tropical in about 48 after crossing the FL. peninsula, the transition should allow for an increase in sustained winds, due to baroclinic forcing. Based on this analysis, I concur with the NHC forecast intensity.
Tropical Storm Warnings still remain in effect.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch from North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Indian Pass to Englewood * Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.
Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Colin.
Additional warnings or watches may be required for parts of this area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
NHC WATCH/WARNINGS MAP
Based on information contained in the Forecast Discussion from NHC, the western Florida Peninsula in the warning area should begin to experience higher winds and heavier rainfall sometime SHORTLY AFTER NOON. Please visit the NWS Hazard and Warnings display by clicking on your area of interest, and heed any local NWS Statements and/or warnings.
Analysis of current and forecast steering products indicates COLIN should continue NNE for approximately the next 12 hours, with a turn toward the NE later tonight. The center of COLIN should make landfall sometime tonight, my best guesstimate, around 8-10 p.m. COLIN should be along the SC coast by Tuesday morning, and will begin to accelerate NE and be out of the picture by Wednesday. I concur with the NHC forecast track, and it is inline with the 12Z Dynamic Model guidance, which is very well clustered. The information from the G IV (Gulfstream 4) aircraft must have made it into the models. Given the forecast seems very certain, and no significant changes are expected, I will not be updating this evening (need a little break), but intend on updating sometime tomorrow.
Elsewhere, analysis of global models do not indicate any other development during the next 7 days, with the exception of the CMC GGEM being the outlier, indicating a low in the GOMEX in a few days. I have to kind of rule this out at the moment, as the upper level pattern and wind shear in that area of the GOMEX may not be favorable for any development. I will however, be monitoring the EPAC system closest to central America for any crossover mischief during this time, albeit the majority of the global models dissipate this once it moves inland over Mexico.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS